【摘要】：摘要：二十一世紀(jì),受到世界金融危機(jī)的空前大挑戰(zhàn),經(jīng)濟(jì)成為全球關(guān)注的中心,經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是其包含的一項(xiàng)重要內(nèi)容。同時(shí)一個(gè)地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有十分重要的意義,也是一個(gè)和諧社會(huì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的重要因素之一。 灰色系統(tǒng)理論在經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行和科學(xué)研究中具有很大的使用價(jià)值以及廣泛的應(yīng)用前景,在分析少數(shù)據(jù)特征的現(xiàn)象前提上,發(fā)現(xiàn)少數(shù)據(jù)、少信息背景下事物的變化規(guī)律,以此提供依據(jù)為促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)合理布局和資源優(yōu)化利用等。 本文從研究湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)著手,討論了湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀,運(yùn)用OCGM (1,1)系統(tǒng)灰預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)今后幾年經(jīng)濟(jì)的產(chǎn)值和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),并在此基礎(chǔ)上利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析和主成分分析研究了第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系與相互影響因素,之后利用灰色發(fā)展決策對(duì)湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了決策分析,以此把握湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展方向,并提出了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化建議。還將OCGM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型和一般的GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了比較與分析,結(jié)果顯示前者比后者在預(yù)測(cè)精度上有明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)。論文中的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和湖南省統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒。 同時(shí),本文的撰寫希望能對(duì)湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的分析、研究、預(yù)測(cè)與決策工作提供依據(jù)。在本文的寫作過(guò)程中,用產(chǎn)值來(lái)衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,用數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)說(shuō)明問(wèn)題。論文從實(shí)際情況出發(fā),合理運(yùn)用灰色系統(tǒng)理論、多元統(tǒng)計(jì)分析以及計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等多種學(xué)科知識(shí),是理論與實(shí)際的結(jié)合體。圖11幅,表25個(gè),參考文獻(xiàn)60篇。
[Abstract]:Abstract: In the twenty-first century, under the unprecedented challenge of the world financial crisis, the economy has become the center of global attention, and the economic structure of the economy is an important content it contains. At the same time, the economic structure of a region is of great significance to the development of the local economy, and is one of the important factors for the stable development of a harmonious society. The grey system theory has great use value and wide application prospect in the operation and scientific research of economy, and on the premise of analyzing the phenomenon of few data features, the change rules of things under the background of little data and little information are found. Law, in order to provide the basis for promoting the rational distribution of the industrial economy and the utilization of resources This paper starts with the research of Hunan economy industry, discusses the present situation of Hunan economy and industrial structure, and uses OCGM (1,1) system gray forecast to forecast the output value and industrial structure of the economy in the next few years. In this paper, the relationship between the first, the second and the third industry and the mutual influence factors are studied by using the gray correlation analysis and the principal component analysis, and then the economic structure of Hunan economy is determined by the grey development decision. The paper analyses the development of the economic structure of Hunan province, and puts forward the advantages of the industrial structure. The prediction results of the GM (1,1) prediction model and the general GM (1,1) prediction model are compared and analyzed. The results show that the former is more accurate than the latter in the prediction accuracy. The data in the paper is derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Hunan Province. At the same time, the author hopes to be able to analyze, study, forecast and decision-making of the economic structure of Hunan Province. In the process of writing, the output value is used to measure the change of the economic structure and the data. On the basis of the actual situation, the paper makes a rational use of the grey system theory, the multivariate statistical analysis and the econometrics, etc., and it is the theory and practice. The combination of the interdecals. Figure 11, Table 25, Reference
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;N941.5

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