基于灰色系統(tǒng)理論的湖南省經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-04-02 14:38
【摘要】：摘要：二十一世紀(jì),受到世界金融危機的空前大挑戰(zhàn),經(jīng)濟成為全球關(guān)注的中心,經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是其包含的一項重要內(nèi)容。同時一個地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟的發(fā)展具有十分重要的意義,也是一個和諧社會穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的重要因素之一。 灰色系統(tǒng)理論在經(jīng)濟的運行和科學(xué)研究中具有很大的使用價值以及廣泛的應(yīng)用前景,在分析少數(shù)據(jù)特征的現(xiàn)象前提上,發(fā)現(xiàn)少數(shù)據(jù)、少信息背景下事物的變化規(guī)律,以此提供依據(jù)為促進產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟合理布局和資源優(yōu)化利用等。 本文從研究湖南省經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)著手,討論了湖南省經(jīng)濟和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀,運用OCGM (1,1)系統(tǒng)灰預(yù)測對今后幾年經(jīng)濟的產(chǎn)值和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行了預(yù)測,并在此基礎(chǔ)上利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析和主成分分析研究了第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系與相互影響因素,之后利用灰色發(fā)展決策對湖南省經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行了決策分析,以此把握湖南省經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展方向,并提出了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化建議。還將OCGM(1,1)預(yù)測模型和一般的GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果進行了比較與分析,結(jié)果顯示前者比后者在預(yù)測精度上有明顯優(yōu)勢。論文中的數(shù)據(jù)來源于中國統(tǒng)計年鑒和湖南省統(tǒng)計年鑒。 同時,本文的撰寫希望能對湖南省經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的分析、研究、預(yù)測與決策工作提供依據(jù)。在本文的寫作過程中,用產(chǎn)值來衡量經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,用數(shù)據(jù)來說明問題。論文從實際情況出發(fā),合理運用灰色系統(tǒng)理論、多元統(tǒng)計分析以及計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)等多種學(xué)科知識,是理論與實際的結(jié)合體。圖11幅,表25個,參考文獻60篇。
[Abstract]:Abstract: In the twenty-first century, under the unprecedented challenge of the world financial crisis, the economy has become the center of global attention, and the economic structure of the economy is an important content it contains. At the same time, the economic structure of a region is of great significance to the development of the local economy, and is one of the important factors for the stable development of a harmonious society. The grey system theory has great use value and wide application prospect in the operation and scientific research of economy, and on the premise of analyzing the phenomenon of few data features, the change rules of things under the background of little data and little information are found. Law, in order to provide the basis for promoting the rational distribution of the industrial economy and the utilization of resources This paper starts with the research of Hunan economy industry, discusses the present situation of Hunan economy and industrial structure, and uses OCGM (1,1) system gray forecast to forecast the output value and industrial structure of the economy in the next few years. In this paper, the relationship between the first, the second and the third industry and the mutual influence factors are studied by using the gray correlation analysis and the principal component analysis, and then the economic structure of Hunan economy is determined by the grey development decision. The paper analyses the development of the economic structure of Hunan province, and puts forward the advantages of the industrial structure. The prediction results of the GM (1,1) prediction model and the general GM (1,1) prediction model are compared and analyzed. The results show that the former is more accurate than the latter in the prediction accuracy. The data in the paper is derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Hunan Province. At the same time, the author hopes to be able to analyze, study, forecast and decision-making of the economic structure of Hunan Province. In the process of writing, the output value is used to measure the change of the economic structure and the data. On the basis of the actual situation, the paper makes a rational use of the grey system theory, the multivariate statistical analysis and the econometrics, etc., and it is the theory and practice. The combination of the interdecals. Figure 11, Table 25, Reference
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;N941.5
本文編號：2452635
[Abstract]:Abstract: In the twenty-first century, under the unprecedented challenge of the world financial crisis, the economy has become the center of global attention, and the economic structure of the economy is an important content it contains. At the same time, the economic structure of a region is of great significance to the development of the local economy, and is one of the important factors for the stable development of a harmonious society. The grey system theory has great use value and wide application prospect in the operation and scientific research of economy, and on the premise of analyzing the phenomenon of few data features, the change rules of things under the background of little data and little information are found. Law, in order to provide the basis for promoting the rational distribution of the industrial economy and the utilization of resources This paper starts with the research of Hunan economy industry, discusses the present situation of Hunan economy and industrial structure, and uses OCGM (1,1) system gray forecast to forecast the output value and industrial structure of the economy in the next few years. In this paper, the relationship between the first, the second and the third industry and the mutual influence factors are studied by using the gray correlation analysis and the principal component analysis, and then the economic structure of Hunan economy is determined by the grey development decision. The paper analyses the development of the economic structure of Hunan province, and puts forward the advantages of the industrial structure. The prediction results of the GM (1,1) prediction model and the general GM (1,1) prediction model are compared and analyzed. The results show that the former is more accurate than the latter in the prediction accuracy. The data in the paper is derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Hunan Province. At the same time, the author hopes to be able to analyze, study, forecast and decision-making of the economic structure of Hunan Province. In the process of writing, the output value is used to measure the change of the economic structure and the data. On the basis of the actual situation, the paper makes a rational use of the grey system theory, the multivariate statistical analysis and the econometrics, etc., and it is the theory and practice. The combination of the interdecals. Figure 11, Table 25, Reference
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;N941.5
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