【摘要】：對于經(jīng)濟增長的機制，學(xué)者們較為一致的觀點是：主要是通過提高要素利用率和增加要素投入這兩個渠道來實現(xiàn)的。金融是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟的基礎(chǔ)和核心，是社會主義市場經(jīng)濟體系的重要組成部分，已成為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的一個戰(zhàn)略性要素。國內(nèi)外關(guān)于金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的研究層出不窮，但主要側(cè)重于宏觀和中觀層面上，對微觀層面的研究甚少，但各個地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)、自然條件、政策支持、社會和技術(shù)條件等資源稟賦存在一定差異，僅從宏觀和中觀層面進行研究，不能全面準確地反映金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系。本文以典型的資源枯竭型轉(zhuǎn)型試點城市和全國城市綜合競爭力排名第七的銅川市為研究對象，從微觀層面對這一問題進行實證分析。 本文在已有研究和相關(guān)金融發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟增長理論的基礎(chǔ)上，因地制宜地地構(gòu)造了衡量銅川市金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟增長的指標體系，以銅川市1990年——2012年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，以加入金融因素的柯布—道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)為模型，運用Eviews6.0對其之間的關(guān)系進行了靜態(tài)和動態(tài)分析。在對數(shù)據(jù)進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗之后，本文采用協(xié)整分析和向量誤差修正模型對變量進行了長短期關(guān)系檢驗，應(yīng)用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗的方法對變量進行了因果關(guān)系分析。在完成了靜態(tài)分析之后，本文采用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和變量方差分解的方法對模型中一個變量的沖擊給其他變量帶來的影響以及每個沖擊對變量變化的貢獻程度進行了動態(tài)分析。 根據(jù)研究的結(jié)果可知：銅川市金融發(fā)展僅在長期與經(jīng)濟增長有相關(guān)關(guān)系，金融規(guī)模的擴張會促使經(jīng)濟增長，而金融效率的提高卻會抑制經(jīng)濟增長，但短期的相關(guān)關(guān)系不顯著。金融效率的提高不但不會促進經(jīng)濟增長反而會抑制其增長，這種異常的現(xiàn)象這可能是由于在銅川市金融機構(gòu)存款余額高速增長的同時，貸款余額增長緩慢，還有很大的貸款空間沒有被釋放，并沒有充分發(fā)揮金融對經(jīng)濟增長的促進作用。從整體看，銅川市金融規(guī)模和經(jīng)濟增長以及金融效率和經(jīng)濟增長之間都存在雙向的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系，且現(xiàn)階段該市金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟增長的作用主要是通過金融效率來體現(xiàn)的，金融規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的促進作用只有當(dāng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展到一定水平時才會顯現(xiàn)出來，而經(jīng)濟增長對金融效率的影響僅體現(xiàn)在當(dāng)期，對金融規(guī)模的影響時間較長。勞動力水平和投資水平也僅在長期對經(jīng)濟增長具有促進作用。從動態(tài)分析結(jié)果可以看出，金融規(guī)模變化的沖擊最終會給經(jīng)濟增長帶來正向的影響，，金融效率變化的沖擊最終會給其帶來負向的影響，并且二者對經(jīng)濟增長的作用力度都很大，而經(jīng)濟增長變化的沖擊給金融規(guī)模和金融效率會帶來一負一正的影響，且作用力度都較小，說明并為充分發(fā)揮經(jīng)濟增長對金融發(fā)展的帶動作用。投資水平變化的沖擊最終會給經(jīng)濟增長帶來正向的影響，而勞動力水平變化的沖擊在給經(jīng)濟增長帶來先正后負來回震蕩的影響之后，最終這種作用會在長期內(nèi)抵消掉。從整個系統(tǒng)的角度出發(fā)，對于經(jīng)濟增長而言，金融效率變化的沖擊對經(jīng)濟增長的影響要高于金融規(guī)模變化沖擊對其的影響；對于金融規(guī)模而言，勞動力水平波動沖擊對其影響最大；對于金融效率而言，金融規(guī)模波動沖擊對其影響最大。從動態(tài)影響可以看出，金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟增長無論在長期還是短期對經(jīng)濟增長都是有影響的，而靜態(tài)短期分析中，這種效果卻不顯著，說明實際情況并沒有達到應(yīng)有的水平。最后本文根據(jù)研究結(jié)論對該市金融和經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出了合理的建議。
[Abstract]:For the mechanism of economic growth, the more consistent point of view of the scholars is that it is mainly realized through the improvement of the factor utilization rate and the addition of the factors into the two channels. Finance is the foundation and core of the modern economy, is an important part of the socialist market economy system, and has become a strategic element in the economic development. The research on the relationship between financial development and economic growth at home and abroad, but mainly on the level of macro and medium, has little research on the micro-level, but there are some differences in the economic base, natural conditions, policy support, social and technical conditions of various regions, The relationship between financial development and economic growth can not be reflected in a comprehensive and accurate way. This paper makes an empirical analysis of this problem from the micro-level with the typical resource-exhausted transformation pilot cities and the seventh Tongchuan city, which is the seventh of the national urban comprehensive competitiveness. On the basis of the existing research and related financial development and economic growth theory, the index system to measure the financial development and economic growth of the city of Tongchuan is constructed in accordance with the local conditions, taking the relevant data of Tongchuan City from 1990 to 2012 as the sample. In this paper, the static and dynamic division of the relationship between Eviews6.0 and Eviews6.0 is used to model the production function of the Cobb-Douglas production function with financial factors. In this paper, after the stationarity test of the data, this paper makes a long-term relationship test on the variable by the association analysis and the vector error correction model, and applies the method of the Granger causality test to the variable. In this paper, after the static analysis is completed, the effect of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition of the variable on the other variables and the contribution of each impact to the variation of the variable are described in this paper. According to the results of the study, the financial development of Tongchuan City is related to the economic growth in the long term, and the expansion of the financial scale will drive the growth of the economy, while the increase of the financial efficiency will restrain the growth of the economy, but the related relation in the short term Not significant. The increase in financial efficiency will not only promote economic growth but also inhibit its growth, which may be due to the slow growth in the deposit balance of the financial institutions in the city of Tongchuan, the slow growth of the loan balance, and the lack of a large loan space. is released and does not give full play to the growth of finance to the economy In the whole, there is a two-way Granger causality between the financial scale and economic growth of Tongchuan, as well as the financial efficiency and economic growth, and the current role of the city's financial development on economic growth is mainly through the financial efficiency The effect of the financial scale on the economic growth is only when the economy develops to a certain level, and the effect of economic growth on the financial efficiency is only reflected in the period when the economy is affected by the financial scale The labour level and the level of investment also have a long-term impact on economic growth It can be seen from the results of the dynamic analysis that the impact of the change of financial size will eventually lead to a positive impact on economic growth, and the impact of the change in financial efficiency will eventually bring negative influence to the economic growth, and the effect of both on economic growth The impact of economic growth changes on the financial scale and financial efficiency will have a negative positive effect, and the effect is small, which will explain and give full play to the economic growth's belt to the financial development The impact of the change in the level of investment will ultimately have a positive impact on economic growth, and the impact of the change in the level of the labour force will be in the long run after the impact of a positive and negative impact on economic growth Canceling. From the point of view of the whole system, the impact of the change in financial efficiency on economic growth is higher than that of the change of financial scale for economic growth; for the financial scale, the impact of the fluctuation of the labor level on the economic growth is the biggest; for the financial efficiency in that case of the rate, the impact of the financial scale on its shadow From the dynamic effect it can be seen that financial development has an impact on economic growth both in the long term and in the short term, while in the static and short-term analysis, this effect is not significant, and the actual situation is not achieved. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions for the development of the financial and economic development of the city
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.7;F127

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