【摘要】：對外貿易結構變動與產業(yè)結構變動是區(qū)域經濟增長過程中的兩大經濟現(xiàn)象,二者能否協(xié)調發(fā)展影響著區(qū)域經濟增長的質量。東盟一直以來是云南省最大的貿易伙伴,云南省對東盟進出口的貿易結構與云南省的產業(yè)結構是否協(xié)調直接關系到云南省未來經濟的發(fā)展,但近年來云南省產業(yè)發(fā)展一直不見起色,對東盟的貿易額甚至出現(xiàn)了負增長的局面�；谝陨媳尘�,本文重點研究云南省對東盟貿易結構與其產業(yè)結構各自變動情況,以及兩者之間的聯(lián)動性,目的在于為有關部門調整優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構和東盟貿易結構提供決策依據(jù)。 本文在梳理對外貿易理論、產業(yè)結構理論、對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構相互作用機理理論的基礎上,以對外貿易結構變動與產業(yè)結構變動為研究視角,協(xié)同運用描述統(tǒng)計分析和計量經濟模型構建等多種分析工具,對云南省對東盟貿易結構與產業(yè)結構之間的關系及聯(lián)動性進行研究。 通過研究得出以下結論：云南省產業(yè)結構和東盟進口結構和出口結構之間存在長期的動態(tài)均衡關系,從產業(yè)結構和東盟進口結構和出口結構的Granger因果關系看,產業(yè)結構是對東盟出口結構變化的原因,說明產業(yè)結構仍然是對外貿易發(fā)展的主動力,同時云南省對東盟進口結構變化是產業(yè)結構變化的原因,說明進口的增長影響了產業(yè)結構的發(fā)展。從脈沖分析和方差分解的結果來看,云南省進口商品的結構變動通常滯后錯位于產業(yè)結構的發(fā)展變動,云南省產業(yè)結構對云南省對東盟進口結構開始時是有負的影響作用；而出口結構對產業(yè)結構的正影響作用比較明顯,且產業(yè)結構對出口結構也是呈現(xiàn)出正向的影響作用,說明二者是相互促進,協(xié)同發(fā)展的。 在歸納和凝練基本結論的基礎上,本文提出了如下的路徑選擇：云南省要想實現(xiàn)產業(yè)結構與對東盟貿易結構互動升級,實現(xiàn)經濟跨越式發(fā)展,就必須改變當前雙方僅依靠自然資源和勞動力的簡單的貿易模式,提升為依賴技術發(fā)展的創(chuàng)新型的動態(tài)比較優(yōu)勢,提高產品在國際市場上的競爭優(yōu)勢,實現(xiàn)落后地區(qū)跨越式發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略。文章提出了將云南作為東部發(fā)達地區(qū)和東盟地區(qū)貿易的通道,通過進口東部和中部發(fā)達地區(qū)的技術密集型產品,出口東盟國家,同時大力發(fā)展自身產業(yè),形成自身產業(yè)優(yōu)勢,在吸收外來資本和技術的過程中,達到形成自身產業(yè)結構和東盟貿易結構的互動升級。
[Abstract]:The structural change of foreign trade and the change of industrial structure are two major economic phenomena in the process of regional economic growth. Whether the two can develop harmoniously affects the quality of regional economic growth. ASEAN has always been the largest trading partner in Yunnan Province. Whether the trade structure between Yunnan's imports and exports to ASEAN and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province is coordinated or not is directly related to the future economic development of Yunnan Province. However, the industrial development of Yunnan Province has not improved in recent years, and the trade volume with ASEAN has even shown negative growth. Based on the above background, this paper focuses on the changes of trade structure and industrial structure of ASEAN in Yunnan Province, as well as the linkage between them. The purpose is to provide decision-making basis for relevant departments to adjust and optimize industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure. On the basis of combing the theory of foreign trade, the theory of industrial structure and the theory of interaction mechanism between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, this paper takes the change of foreign trade structure and industrial structure as the research angle. This paper studies the relationship and linkage between ASEAN trade structure and industrial structure in Yunnan Province by means of descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model construction. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure of Yunnan Province and the import structure and export structure of ASEAN. The Granger causality between the industrial structure and the ASEAN import structure and export structure is analyzed. The industrial structure is the reason for the change of the export structure to ASEAN, which shows that the industrial structure is still the main driving force for the development of foreign trade. Meanwhile, the change in the import structure of Yunnan Province to ASEAN is the reason for the change of the industrial structure. This shows that the growth of imports has affected the development of the industrial structure. From the results of pulse analysis and variance decomposition, the structural changes of Yunnan import commodities usually lag behind the development changes of industrial structure, and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has a negative effect on ASEAN import structure at the beginning. The positive effect of the export structure on the industrial structure is obvious, and the industrial structure has a positive effect on the export structure, indicating that the two promote each other and develop in a coordinated manner. On the basis of summing up and condensing the basic conclusions, this paper puts forward the following path choices: Yunnan Province wants to realize the interactive upgrading of industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure, and realize the leap-forward development of economy. We must change the current simple trade model in which both sides rely only on natural resources and labor, upgrade it to an innovative and dynamic comparative advantage that relies on technological development, and enhance the competitive advantage of products in the international market. The strategy of realizing the leapfrog development of backward areas. This paper proposes that Yunnan should be used as a trade channel between the eastern developed regions and the ASEAN regions. By importing technology-intensive products from the eastern and central developed regions, Yunnan should be exported to ASEAN countries, and at the same time, it should vigorously develop its own industries and form its own industrial advantages. In the process of absorbing foreign capital and technology, the interactive upgrading of the industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure has been achieved.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F752.8

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