【摘要】：物價(jià)通常被認(rèn)為是生產(chǎn)價(jià)格，生產(chǎn)價(jià)格一般是平均生產(chǎn)成本和社會(huì)平均利潤共同組成的，價(jià)值的轉(zhuǎn)化形式。物價(jià)穩(wěn)定和就業(yè)充分及GDP增長往往是最重要的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)。衡量物價(jià)有多個(gè)指標(biāo)，最常見的就是居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)，也就是我們常說的CPI，，這一指數(shù)也是觀察通貨膨脹水平的一個(gè)重要指標(biāo)，并非是百姓生活中所感受的那種物價(jià)。如果物價(jià)指數(shù)持續(xù)增長，就表示有一定的通貨膨脹，影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，導(dǎo)致財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，造成經(jīng)濟(jì)的不景氣。如果消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)小幅度提升或降低，則表明物價(jià)較合理穩(wěn)定，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行良好。消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)是世界各國普遍認(rèn)可的一種指數(shù)，它可以用于分析市場價(jià)格的基本情況，是政府制定經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的重要依據(jù)。物價(jià)問題無疑是一個(gè)涉及民生的敏感問題，不僅對(duì)社會(huì)中百姓生活水平有直接的影響，還對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展起到根本性的作用，經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定對(duì)社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定有很大的影響作用，雖然CPI是一個(gè)滯后性的數(shù)據(jù)，但它的作用不容小視，通常它是政府貨幣政策和市場經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的一個(gè)重要參考指標(biāo)。 本文中著重從CPI編制范圍、結(jié)構(gòu)、如何反映物價(jià)情況來說明，并且分析指數(shù)的變動(dòng)與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系，解釋說明為什么百姓對(duì)物價(jià)的感覺與統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)不相符�；趦�(nèi)蒙古歷年數(shù)據(jù)，利用VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)、方差分解來分析內(nèi)蒙古能源發(fā)展對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)和物價(jià)的影響及根據(jù)影響內(nèi)蒙古物價(jià)的主要因素提出相關(guān)政策建議。再對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古CPI季度數(shù)據(jù)作時(shí)間序列模型分析，再進(jìn)行預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:The price is usually considered as the production price, and the production price is generally composed of the average production cost and the social average profit, and the transformation form of the value. Price stability and full employment and GDP growth are often the most important socio-economic goals. The most common measure of price is the consumer price index, which we often call CPI, which is also an important index to observe the level of inflation. It is not the kind of price that people feel in their daily life. If the price index continues to increase, it means that there is certain inflation, affecting the development of the economy, leading to financial risks, resulting in economic depression. If the consumer price index increases or decreases by a small margin, it indicates that prices are reasonably stable and the macro economy is running well. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely accepted index in the world. It can be used to analyze the basic situation of the market price and is an important basis for the government to make economic policies. The price issue is undoubtedly a sensitive issue involving the people's livelihood. It not only has a direct impact on the standard of living of the people in society, but also plays a fundamental role in the development of the whole economy. Economic stability has a great impact on social stability. Although CPI is a lagging data, its function is not to be underestimated, usually it is an important reference index of government monetary policy and market economy activity. This paper focuses on the scope, structure and how to reflect the price situation of CPI, and analyzes the relationship between the change of index and inflation, explains why the people's perception of price does not accord with the statistical data released by the Bureau of Statistics. Based on the data of Inner Mongolia over the years, VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence of Inner Mongolia energy development on Inner Mongolia economy and price, and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward according to the main factors that affect the price of Inner Mongolia. Then the CPI quarterly data of Inner Mongolia were analyzed by time series model, and then predicted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F126;F726

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本文編號(hào)：2378813