基于SD的河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展問題研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-07 09:33
【摘要】：可持續(xù)發(fā)展,是20世紀(jì)80年代以來人類認(rèn)真總結(jié)和重新審視自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會活動與發(fā)展行為而提出的一種新的發(fā)展思想和發(fā)展模式,是人類發(fā)展史上的一次思想大革命。區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展基于可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理論基礎(chǔ)及概念體系,是可持續(xù)發(fā)展思想在區(qū)城和產(chǎn)業(yè)層次的拓展,具有豐富的內(nèi)涵和更為明顯的實(shí)踐導(dǎo)向特征。區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展作為一種新的區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展理念,具體化到不同的國家、地區(qū)和城市,就各有不同的發(fā)展實(shí)踐形式。就河北省自身經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展來看,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、人口、資源與環(huán)境對產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的影響作用,針對河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)尚不均衡、人口壓力大、重工業(yè)對資源的消耗量大及對環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重等問題的分析,探尋河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的路徑對于河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文以可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論為導(dǎo)向,以系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)為分析方法和研究工具,探索河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的新思路,為河北省的產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略提供政策建議的實(shí)驗(yàn)室。 本文首先對產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展理論,特別是其中的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化理論,可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論,產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論和系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)相關(guān)原理進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)闡述,并且對于國內(nèi)外關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的研究成果進(jìn)行了整理和分析,并且介紹了系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)在可持續(xù)發(fā)展中的廣泛應(yīng)用及其成果,進(jìn)而形成本文的理論基礎(chǔ)和理論依據(jù)。 其次,通過大量數(shù)據(jù)的搜集整理和實(shí)地考查,對河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,得出河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展過程中存在的不可持續(xù)性的問題。本文對河北省三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的總結(jié)分析,進(jìn)而,從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值構(gòu)成、三次產(chǎn)業(yè)全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資構(gòu)成和三次產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)構(gòu)成三個(gè)方面對河北省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,得出河北省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部及產(chǎn)業(yè)之間存在的不均衡發(fā)展問題。本文還對河北省人口、資源和環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,人口基數(shù)大、人口老齡化、勞動力素質(zhì)低下,資源使用效率低、能源消費(fèi)缺口過大,環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重等問題制約了河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 第三,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的方法,將河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)分解為產(chǎn)業(yè)、人口、資源與環(huán)境四個(gè)子系統(tǒng),通過影響變量將四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)聯(lián)系起來,通過它們之間的相互影響、相互聯(lián)系形成整個(gè)動態(tài)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)。通過各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)因果關(guān)系圖和主要方程初步建立模型,模型通過合理性和有效性檢驗(yàn),模型仿真結(jié)果與實(shí)際歷史數(shù)據(jù)擬合度較高,說明模型能夠較準(zhǔn)確地反映產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展真實(shí)情況。 最后,文章設(shè)定了三種發(fā)展方案,分別為：無為方案、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化方案、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化+節(jié)能環(huán)保方案。方案一,遵從系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的發(fā)展模式,不施加任何外界干擾因素；方案二,通過調(diào)整河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)來改變系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展軌跡,這一方案對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了明顯的促進(jìn)效應(yīng),但短期效益更為突出；方案三,在方案二的基礎(chǔ)上,加大了環(huán)保投入和技術(shù)投入,此方案產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益是長期的,符合產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的要求。對比分析三種方案的模擬仿真結(jié)果,得到最優(yōu)方案,即為方案三。結(jié)合上述分析,提出河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策建議：(1)調(diào)整三次產(chǎn)業(yè)之間和各產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部之間的結(jié)構(gòu),推進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,促進(jìn)河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)的均衡性發(fā)展；(2)提高資源利用率,發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì),綜合治理環(huán)境污染,保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境,促進(jìn)河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展；(3)控制人口數(shù)量,重視人口結(jié)構(gòu)性問題,大力發(fā)展教育,提高勞動力素質(zhì),合理調(diào)整相關(guān)政策,促進(jìn)河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)的綜合性發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The sustainable development is a new development thought and development model, which has been put forward by mankind since the 1980 's, and it is a great revolution in the history of human development. The sustainable development of the regional industry is based on the theory foundation and the concept system of the sustainable development, which is the extension of the thought of the sustainable development in the area city and the industrial level, and has rich connotation and more obvious practical guiding characteristics. The sustainable development of the regional industry, as a new concept of regional industrial development, is embodied in different countries, regions and cities, with different forms of development practice. On the basis of the economic development of Hebei, the industrial structure, population, resources and environment have an important influence on the sustainable development of the industry. The analysis of heavy industry's consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution is of great theoretical and practical significance for the development of the industry in Hebei province. This paper, based on the theory of sustainable development, takes the system dynamics as the analytical method and the research tool, and explores the new thought of the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei, and provides a policy suggestion for the sustainable development strategy of the industry in Hebei Province. In this paper, the theory of industrial development, especially the theory of industrial structure optimization, the theory of sustainable development, the theory of sustainable development of industry and the principle of system dynamics, are introduced. The research results of the sustainable development of the industry at home and abroad are summarized and analyzed, and the wide application of the system dynamics in the sustainable development and its results are introduced, and the theoretical foundation and the theory of this paper are also formed. Second, the present situation of the industrial development of Hebei province is analyzed through the collection and arrangement of a large amount of data and the field examination, and the unsustainability of the development of the industrial development in Hebei province is obtained. This paper makes a detailed summary and analysis of the present situation of the three major industries in Hebei Province, and then, from the three industrial output values, the three industrial total social fixed assets investment composition and the three industrial employment constitute three aspects to the three industrial structure present situation of Hebei Province An analysis is made to find out the imbalance between the three industries and the industry in Hebei Province. The paper also analyses the present situation of the population, resources and environment in Hebei province. The population base is large, the population is aging, the quality of the labor force is low, the resource use efficiency is low, the energy consumption gap is too large, the environmental pollution is serious, and the like, the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei Province is restricted Third, using the method of system dynamics, the system of sustainable development of Hebei industry is divided into four sub-systems of industry, population, resources and environment, and the four subsystems are connected through the influence variable, through which The interaction of each other to form the whole motion The model is based on the causality diagram and the main equation of each subsystem. The model is verified by the rationality and validity. The simulation result of the model is higher with the actual historical data, and the model can reflect the development of the industry more accurately. In the end, the article sets up three development plans, which are: no plan, optimization plan of industrial structure, and optimization of industrial structure. "+ Energy-saving and environment-friendly scheme. The scheme 1, according to the development mode inside the system, does not apply any external interference factors; Scheme 2, by adjusting the industrial structure of Hebei Province to change the development track of the system, this scheme has a clear promotion effect on the economy, but the short-term benefit is more In order to highlight the project, and on the basis of the scheme 2, the environmental protection input and the technical investment are increased, and the economic benefit generated by the scheme is long-term, and the compliance industry can The requirements of continuous development. The simulation results of the three schemes are compared and analyzed, and the optimal party is obtained. In combination with the above analysis, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions of the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei Province. (1) The structure between the three industries and the inside of each industry is adjusted, the industrial structure optimization and upgrading are promoted, and the balanced development of the industry in Hebei is promoted; (2) improve the utilization rate of the resources, develop the circular economy, comprehensively control the environmental pollution, protect the ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of the industry in the Hebei Province; (3) control the population, attach importance to the structural problems of the population, develop the education vigorously, and improve the quality of the labor force; To adjust the relevant policies and to promote the production of Hebei province
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127
本文編號：2366989
[Abstract]:The sustainable development is a new development thought and development model, which has been put forward by mankind since the 1980 's, and it is a great revolution in the history of human development. The sustainable development of the regional industry is based on the theory foundation and the concept system of the sustainable development, which is the extension of the thought of the sustainable development in the area city and the industrial level, and has rich connotation and more obvious practical guiding characteristics. The sustainable development of the regional industry, as a new concept of regional industrial development, is embodied in different countries, regions and cities, with different forms of development practice. On the basis of the economic development of Hebei, the industrial structure, population, resources and environment have an important influence on the sustainable development of the industry. The analysis of heavy industry's consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution is of great theoretical and practical significance for the development of the industry in Hebei province. This paper, based on the theory of sustainable development, takes the system dynamics as the analytical method and the research tool, and explores the new thought of the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei, and provides a policy suggestion for the sustainable development strategy of the industry in Hebei Province. In this paper, the theory of industrial development, especially the theory of industrial structure optimization, the theory of sustainable development, the theory of sustainable development of industry and the principle of system dynamics, are introduced. The research results of the sustainable development of the industry at home and abroad are summarized and analyzed, and the wide application of the system dynamics in the sustainable development and its results are introduced, and the theoretical foundation and the theory of this paper are also formed. Second, the present situation of the industrial development of Hebei province is analyzed through the collection and arrangement of a large amount of data and the field examination, and the unsustainability of the development of the industrial development in Hebei province is obtained. This paper makes a detailed summary and analysis of the present situation of the three major industries in Hebei Province, and then, from the three industrial output values, the three industrial total social fixed assets investment composition and the three industrial employment constitute three aspects to the three industrial structure present situation of Hebei Province An analysis is made to find out the imbalance between the three industries and the industry in Hebei Province. The paper also analyses the present situation of the population, resources and environment in Hebei province. The population base is large, the population is aging, the quality of the labor force is low, the resource use efficiency is low, the energy consumption gap is too large, the environmental pollution is serious, and the like, the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei Province is restricted Third, using the method of system dynamics, the system of sustainable development of Hebei industry is divided into four sub-systems of industry, population, resources and environment, and the four subsystems are connected through the influence variable, through which The interaction of each other to form the whole motion The model is based on the causality diagram and the main equation of each subsystem. The model is verified by the rationality and validity. The simulation result of the model is higher with the actual historical data, and the model can reflect the development of the industry more accurately. In the end, the article sets up three development plans, which are: no plan, optimization plan of industrial structure, and optimization of industrial structure. "+ Energy-saving and environment-friendly scheme. The scheme 1, according to the development mode inside the system, does not apply any external interference factors; Scheme 2, by adjusting the industrial structure of Hebei Province to change the development track of the system, this scheme has a clear promotion effect on the economy, but the short-term benefit is more In order to highlight the project, and on the basis of the scheme 2, the environmental protection input and the technical investment are increased, and the economic benefit generated by the scheme is long-term, and the compliance industry can The requirements of continuous development. The simulation results of the three schemes are compared and analyzed, and the optimal party is obtained. In combination with the above analysis, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions of the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei Province. (1) The structure between the three industries and the inside of each industry is adjusted, the industrial structure optimization and upgrading are promoted, and the balanced development of the industry in Hebei is promoted; (2) improve the utilization rate of the resources, develop the circular economy, comprehensively control the environmental pollution, protect the ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of the industry in the Hebei Province; (3) control the population, attach importance to the structural problems of the population, develop the education vigorously, and improve the quality of the labor force; To adjust the relevant policies and to promote the production of Hebei province
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127
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