【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放三十多年來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速,國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值年均增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)9.9%,但主要依靠投資拉動(dòng)GDP增長(zhǎng)仍是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)目前的主要特征之一。低效率的高投資增長(zhǎng)雖然帶動(dòng)了我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,但是資源環(huán)境約束導(dǎo)致這一發(fā)展模式的不可持續(xù)。在當(dāng)前倡導(dǎo)可持續(xù)發(fā)展、構(gòu)建和諧社會(huì)的背景下,我國(guó)需要改變“高消耗、高投入、低產(chǎn)出”的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式。 現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論強(qiáng)調(diào)全要素生產(chǎn)率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),認(rèn)為全要素是技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展作用的綜合表現(xiàn),全要素生產(chǎn)率是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的重要指標(biāo)之一。因此我國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式,應(yīng)該研究哪些因素對(duì)我國(guó)的全要素生產(chǎn)率產(chǎn)生影響,結(jié)合當(dāng)代世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的大趨勢(shì),我們需要考慮我國(guó)目前經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的最大特點(diǎn)——對(duì)外開(kāi)放,在對(duì)外開(kāi)放這一框架內(nèi)研究我國(guó)全要素生產(chǎn)率。但研究對(duì)外開(kāi)放與全要素生產(chǎn)率的關(guān)系,不能忽略人力資本這一重要因素,一方面是因?yàn)閺膬?nèi)生增長(zhǎng)理論來(lái)看,人力資本與全要素生產(chǎn)率有密不可分的關(guān)系,另一方面是因?yàn)閷?duì)外開(kāi)放與人力資本也密切相關(guān)。 文章在回顧和梳理了全要素生產(chǎn)率主要測(cè)算方法及測(cè)算現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析法,利用1978-2011年我國(guó)29個(gè)省市的面板數(shù)據(jù),測(cè)算了我國(guó)的技術(shù)效率、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)水平,并對(duì)此結(jié)果從時(shí)間、地區(qū)兩個(gè)維度進(jìn)行分析。然后分析了FDI、國(guó)際貿(mào)易、人力資本分別影響全要素生產(chǎn)率的機(jī)制,指出FDI的技術(shù)溢出和國(guó)際貿(mào)易的知識(shí)擴(kuò)散、市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、要素價(jià)格機(jī)制是FDI、國(guó)際貿(mào)易作用于全要素生產(chǎn)率的主要途徑,而人力資本除直接影響技術(shù)進(jìn)步外,通過(guò)自身反映的技術(shù)吸收能力也是影響上述機(jī)制能否充分發(fā)揮的關(guān)鍵因素,在此基礎(chǔ)上,以這三個(gè)因素為主要解釋變量,再進(jìn)一步選擇投資率、金融發(fā)展、市場(chǎng)化程度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)作為控制變量,從全國(guó)、分地區(qū)兩個(gè)角度進(jìn)行面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸,結(jié)論為：我國(guó)全要素生產(chǎn)率明顯提高,我國(guó)TFP提高的主要原因在于技術(shù)進(jìn)步,技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)TFP增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)度遠(yuǎn)大于技術(shù)效率；不同地區(qū)間FDI、國(guó)際貿(mào)易、人力資本對(duì)TFP的影響不同。最后基于現(xiàn)狀分析和實(shí)證結(jié)果,本文就注重FDI引進(jìn)質(zhì)量、調(diào)整貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、提升人力資本,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, China's economy has developed rapidly, and the average annual growth rate of GDP is as high as 9.9%. However, it is still one of the main characteristics of China's economy to rely mainly on investment to stimulate the growth of GDP. The low efficiency and high investment growth has driven the economic development of our country, but the restriction of resources and environment leads to the unsustainable development mode. Under the background of advocating sustainable development and building a harmonious society, our country needs to change the economic growth model of "high consumption, high input and low output". Modern economic growth theory emphasizes the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth, and holds that total factor is the comprehensive performance of technological progress on economic development, and total factor productivity is one of the important indexes to measure the quality of economic growth in developed countries. Therefore, in order to change the mode of economic growth in China, we should study which factors have an impact on the total factor productivity of our country. In the light of the general trend of economic development in the contemporary world, we need to consider the greatest characteristic of our country's economic development at present, that is, opening to the outside world. In the framework of opening to the outside world, the study of China's total factor productivity. However, the study of the relationship between opening to the outside world and total factor productivity cannot ignore the important factor of human capital. On the one hand, from the view of endogenous growth theory, human capital and total factor productivity are inextricably related. On the other hand, because the opening to the outside world and human capital are also closely related. On the basis of reviewing and combing the main measuring methods and current situation of total factor productivity, using data envelopment analysis and panel data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1978 to 2011, the paper calculates the technical efficiency and technological progress of our country. The level of total factor productivity growth is analyzed from two dimensions of time and region. Then it analyzes the mechanism that FDI, international trade and human capital affect TFP, and points out that the technology spillover of FDI and knowledge diffusion of international trade, market competition, scale economy and factor price mechanism are FDI,. International trade plays a major role in total factor productivity, and human capital not only directly affects technological progress, but also the technological absorption capacity reflected by itself is the key factor to influence whether or not these mechanisms can be fully developed, on the basis of which, Taking these three factors as the main explanatory variables, and further selecting the investment rate, financial development, marketization degree and industrial structure as control variables, the panel data regression is carried out from two angles of national and regional perspectives. The conclusions are as follows: the total factor productivity of our country is obviously increased, and the main reason for the increase of TFP in our country lies in the technological progress, the contribution of technological progress to the growth of TFP is much greater than the technical efficiency; The influence of human capital on TFP is different among different regions in FDI, international trade. Finally, based on the current situation analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the quality of FDI introduction, the adjustment of trade structure, the promotion of human capital and the promotion of economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F124

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本文編號(hào)：2362425