本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耕地資源變化計(jì)量分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

姚 遠(yuǎn),李效順,曲福田,陳龍乾.中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耕地資源變化計(jì)量分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào),2012,28(14):209-215.DOI:

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耕地資源變化計(jì)量分析

投稿時(shí)間：2011-12-15  最后修改時(shí)間：2012-04-18

中文關(guān)鍵詞:  土地利用，經(jīng)濟(jì)，增長，耕地變化，Logistic曲線，假說驗(yàn)證，中國

基金項(xiàng)目:歐盟項(xiàng)目（ICA-10025）；國家杰出青年基金（70425002）；國家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目（09&ZD046）；國家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目（70833001）；國家自然科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目（71103182）；江蘇高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程項(xiàng)目資助（SZBF2011-6-B35）。

作者單位

姚 遠(yuǎn) 1. 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)國土環(huán)境與災(zāi)害監(jiān)測(cè)國家測(cè)繪局重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，徐州 221116 

李效順 1. 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)國土環(huán)境與災(zāi)害監(jiān)測(cè)國家測(cè)繪局重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，徐州 221116 2. 南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué) 中國土地問題研究中心，南京 210095 

曲福田 2. 南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué) 中國土地問題研究中心，，南京 210095 

陳龍乾 1. 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)國土環(huán)境與災(zāi)害監(jiān)測(cè)國家測(cè)繪局重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，徐州 221116 

摘要點(diǎn)擊次數(shù): 1004

全文下載次數(shù): 609

中文摘要:經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與耕地保護(hù)一直是決策者兩難的選擇，其傳統(tǒng)假說大都建立在發(fā)展與保護(hù)矛盾不斷激化的基礎(chǔ)之上，該文基于國內(nèi)外耕地變化軌跡的判斷，提出新的研究假說：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耕地變化存在Logistic曲線關(guān)系，并選擇全國數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明：國外（區(qū)域）經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展在工業(yè)化、城市化由初級(jí)階段過渡到高級(jí)階段過程中，對(duì)建設(shè)占用耕地需求的強(qiáng)烈程度先增強(qiáng)后減弱，整個(gè)過程類似于Logistic曲線假說。中國不同階段對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn)，1988－2003年間中國人均經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耕地資源變化具有較為一致波動(dòng)特征致，2003年以后兩者波動(dòng)出現(xiàn)明顯脫鉤或分歧。1988－2008年間的全國各省實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示，除上海、廣西等8省份無法通過F檢驗(yàn)外，其余省份均能驗(yàn)證研究假說，在2002年全國人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值8759.2元，是耕地變化加速減少向減速減少的拐點(diǎn)，2009年后數(shù)年耕地規(guī)模總量不應(yīng)小于121.7萬km2，不同區(qū)域耕地變化拐點(diǎn)和規(guī)模下限差別較大。研究結(jié)論能夠?yàn)橹袊乇Ｗo(hù)和公共政策調(diào)整提供科學(xué)依據(jù)和直接參考。

Yao Yuan,Li Xiaoshun,Qu Futian,Chen Longqian.Quantitative analysis of relationship between economy growth and cultivated land change in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(14):209-215.DOI:

Quantitative analysis of relationship between economy growth and cultivated land change in China

Author NameAffiliation

Yao Yuan  

Li Xiaoshun  

Qu Futian  

Chen Longqian  

Key words:land use, economics, growth, cultivated land change, Logistic curve, hypothesis verification, China

Abstract:According to traditional hypothesis that contradiction between economy development and land protection is increasingly intense, a new hypothesis that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land changing can be expressed as Logistic curve based on the analysis of change of cultivated land at home and abroad. And then an empirical study was carried out using the national data. Results showed that during the period when the economic growth at abroad transformed from the primary stage to advanced stage in industrialization and urbanization process, the intensity of demand for cultivated land occupied by construction firstly increased and then decreased, which was similar to the Logistic curve. Comparison of different stages in China indicated that per capital economic growth and cultivated land changes had a consistent wave from 1998 to 2003, but then had an inconsistent wave after 2003. Empirical results showed that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land changing in most provinces could pass the F test, and demonstrate the hypothesis at provincial level between 1988 and 2008 except for 8 provinces. The year 2002 with per capital GDP of 8759.2 Yuan was an inflection point at which the cultivated land changed from accelerated reduction to decelerated reduction. The total cultivated land amounts should not be less than 1.217×106 km2 after 2009. The inflection points and the limit of cultivated land scales had big differences in different regions. The research provides a scientific basis and direct reference for cultivated land protection and public policy adjustments in China.

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耕地資源變化計(jì)量分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。