匯率變動對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-08 16:48
【摘要】：匯率和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是目前我國由來已久十分關(guān)注的兩大熱點問題。自從改革開放以來,我國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展迅速,尤其是我國加入WTO組織以后,國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟逐漸的與世界經(jīng)濟接軌,而匯率作為平衡各國之間貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟的重要武器,在各國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中都有著舉足輕重的地位。所以匯率的變動不僅僅影響我國的進出口貿(mào)易額和外商直接投資額,甚至更深層次的影響我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),從而對我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級產(chǎn)生重大的影響。匯率的變動可以變外需為內(nèi)需,加快我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的步伐。靈活有彈性的匯率機制有益于調(diào)節(jié)我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。甚至匯率的變動使我國在國際分工中的地位得到改善,從而改變產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。雖然目前的很多研究認為匯率的變動對我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級是有一定的影響的,但是多數(shù)的研究都是從單個企業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)出發(fā)來研究匯率與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系,而且對于匯率和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)二者的研究也大部分局限于國際貿(mào)易方面,宏觀上的研究成果存在空缺。但是隨著金融市場不斷完善,金融規(guī)模不斷擴大,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷調(diào)整有必要對匯率和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級進行系統(tǒng)的研究,從宏觀上來把握有利于促進我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級。本文主要通過分析我國多年的匯率與我國三大產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的關(guān)系來發(fā)現(xiàn)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的方向,從三大產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的角度來反映我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級。 本文由五個部分組成,第一章緒論,首先分析了本文的的選題背景和選題意義,說明選擇本選題的原因,然后通過分析前人的研究成果,總結(jié)文獻綜述,接著給出研究框架以及本文的創(chuàng)新和不足。從第二章開始為本文的主體部分,第二章匯率變動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的理論綜述為本文的基礎(chǔ),主要交代了匯率、匯率變動、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的相關(guān)概念,同時給出了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的理論。第三章是匯率變動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的因素分析,主要敘述匯率對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響,所以首先介紹了我國匯率形成機制演變路徑分析,然后具體贅述我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級存在的問題,以及在我國漫長的匯率機制形成過程中產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級存在著怎樣的問題。第四章的是匯率變動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的作用機理分析,這一章是文章的主體部分,選取了變量和數(shù)據(jù),分別利用單位根檢驗和協(xié)整檢驗分析實際有效匯率與三大產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的關(guān)系,構(gòu)建模型得出結(jié)論,最后利用格蘭杰因果檢驗檢驗了實際有效匯率與三大產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的因果關(guān)系。第五章是結(jié)論與政策建議,首先對全文的結(jié)論進行了匯總,然后根據(jù)文章提出的問題以及實證的結(jié)果并結(jié)合實際提出一些對策建議。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate and industrial structure are two hot issues that our country has been paying close attention to for a long time. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially after China's entry into the WTO, the domestic economy is gradually in line with the world economy, and the exchange rate is an important weapon to balance the trade and economy between countries. In the economic development of all countries have a pivotal position. Therefore, the change of exchange rate not only affects China's import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment, but also has a deep impact on the industrial structure of our country, thus has a significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. The change of exchange rate can change external demand into domestic demand and accelerate the pace of industrial structure transformation and upgrading in China. Flexible and flexible exchange rate mechanism is beneficial to adjust the industrial structure of our country. Even the change of exchange rate improves China's position in the international division of labor, thus changing the industrial structure. Although many studies believe that the exchange rate changes have a certain impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, most of the studies are based on the industrial structure of a single enterprise to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the industrial structure. Moreover, the research on exchange rate and industrial structure is mostly limited to international trade. However, with the continuous improvement of the financial market and the expansion of the financial scale, it is necessary to make a systematic study on the exchange rate and the upgrading of the industrial structure with the constant adjustment of the industrial structure. From the macro view to grasp conducive to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. By analyzing the relationship between the exchange rate and the three major industries in China, this paper finds out the direction of the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, and reflects the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of our country from the perspective of the three major industrial structures. This paper is composed of five parts. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the topic, explains the reasons for choosing this topic, and then summarizes the literature review by analyzing the previous research results. Then the research framework and the innovation and deficiency of this paper are given. Chapter 2 is the main part of this paper. Chapter two summarizes the theory of exchange rate change affecting industrial structure transformation and upgrading. It mainly explains the concepts of exchange rate, exchange rate change, industrial structure and industrial transformation and upgrading. At the same time, the theory of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is given. The third chapter is the analysis of the factors that the exchange rate change affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, mainly narrates how the exchange rate affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, so the paper first introduces the evolution path of the exchange rate formation mechanism of our country. Then the problems of the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in China and the problems in the process of the formation of the exchange rate mechanism in China are described in detail. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the mechanism of the exchange rate change affecting the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, this chapter is the main part of the article, selected variables and data, The relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the three industries is analyzed by unit root test and cointegration test, and the model is constructed. Finally, Granger causality test is used to test the causality between the real effective exchange rate and the three major industries. The fifth chapter is the conclusions and policy recommendations, first of all the conclusions of the full text are summarized, then according to the problems raised in the article and empirical results, combined with the actual put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124;F832.6
本文編號：2319093
[Abstract]:Exchange rate and industrial structure are two hot issues that our country has been paying close attention to for a long time. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially after China's entry into the WTO, the domestic economy is gradually in line with the world economy, and the exchange rate is an important weapon to balance the trade and economy between countries. In the economic development of all countries have a pivotal position. Therefore, the change of exchange rate not only affects China's import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment, but also has a deep impact on the industrial structure of our country, thus has a significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. The change of exchange rate can change external demand into domestic demand and accelerate the pace of industrial structure transformation and upgrading in China. Flexible and flexible exchange rate mechanism is beneficial to adjust the industrial structure of our country. Even the change of exchange rate improves China's position in the international division of labor, thus changing the industrial structure. Although many studies believe that the exchange rate changes have a certain impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, most of the studies are based on the industrial structure of a single enterprise to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the industrial structure. Moreover, the research on exchange rate and industrial structure is mostly limited to international trade. However, with the continuous improvement of the financial market and the expansion of the financial scale, it is necessary to make a systematic study on the exchange rate and the upgrading of the industrial structure with the constant adjustment of the industrial structure. From the macro view to grasp conducive to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. By analyzing the relationship between the exchange rate and the three major industries in China, this paper finds out the direction of the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, and reflects the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of our country from the perspective of the three major industrial structures. This paper is composed of five parts. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the topic, explains the reasons for choosing this topic, and then summarizes the literature review by analyzing the previous research results. Then the research framework and the innovation and deficiency of this paper are given. Chapter 2 is the main part of this paper. Chapter two summarizes the theory of exchange rate change affecting industrial structure transformation and upgrading. It mainly explains the concepts of exchange rate, exchange rate change, industrial structure and industrial transformation and upgrading. At the same time, the theory of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is given. The third chapter is the analysis of the factors that the exchange rate change affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, mainly narrates how the exchange rate affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, so the paper first introduces the evolution path of the exchange rate formation mechanism of our country. Then the problems of the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in China and the problems in the process of the formation of the exchange rate mechanism in China are described in detail. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the mechanism of the exchange rate change affecting the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, this chapter is the main part of the article, selected variables and data, The relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the three industries is analyzed by unit root test and cointegration test, and the model is constructed. Finally, Granger causality test is used to test the causality between the real effective exchange rate and the three major industries. The fifth chapter is the conclusions and policy recommendations, first of all the conclusions of the full text are summarized, then according to the problems raised in the article and empirical results, combined with the actual put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124;F832.6
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