【摘要】：伴隨著資源耗竭、環(huán)境污染、生態(tài)破壞等全球性危機(jī)的愈演愈烈,探究依靠科技進(jìn)步來破解經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展難題、實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展成為技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域理論研究的熱點之一,江蘇省委在綜合考慮外部環(huán)境和內(nèi)部條件基礎(chǔ)上,更明確提出把科技創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動戰(zhàn)略作為經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展的核心戰(zhàn)略。因此,構(gòu)建科技進(jìn)步子系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展子系統(tǒng)的指標(biāo)體系,在此基礎(chǔ)上通過構(gòu)建計量模型,深入探究科技進(jìn)步對江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的影響具有重要意義。 本研究首先通過對科技進(jìn)步及經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的概念、內(nèi)涵的界定以及對相關(guān)理論和國內(nèi)外研究文獻(xiàn)的梳理,確定了本文研究對象、研究視角和研究方法；隨后采用因子分析對科技進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展初始指標(biāo)進(jìn)行篩選優(yōu)化,構(gòu)建起最終的指標(biāo)體系；最后,通過構(gòu)建不同計量模型實證分析科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展影響的路徑和區(qū)域差異,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出研究結(jié)論和相應(yīng)的對策建議。 在實證部分,本研究首先通過結(jié)構(gòu)方程建模方法分別驗證了科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的直接影響,科技進(jìn)步環(huán)境的調(diào)節(jié)作用,以及考慮科技投入對科技產(chǎn)出的作用下,科技投入等變量對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展影響的直接效應(yīng)和間接效應(yīng)。為保證結(jié)論的準(zhǔn)確性,還分別對上述模型的參數(shù)、模型內(nèi)在質(zhì)量及擬合優(yōu)度等指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了測算和分析。結(jié)果表明：科技進(jìn)步水平及科技投入水平、科技產(chǎn)出水平的提高均對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有正向直接顯著作用；科技進(jìn)步環(huán)境對科技進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展同時存在正向直接顯著影響,且對科技進(jìn)步影響作用更大,科技進(jìn)步環(huán)境的調(diào)節(jié)作用得到驗證,同時進(jìn)一步計算還揭示出科技進(jìn)步環(huán)境和科技進(jìn)步之間存在著一定的替代關(guān)系；科技投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展影響以直接效應(yīng)為主,通過影響科技產(chǎn)出再進(jìn)一步影響經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的間接效應(yīng)較弱,另外,科技產(chǎn)出對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展影響的直接效應(yīng)也較弱。 實證部分還通過將區(qū)域虛擬變量納入到科技進(jìn)步為自變量、經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展為因變量的回歸方程來分析科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展影響的區(qū)域差異,研究結(jié)果表明：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展初始水平(常數(shù)項)從高到低分別為蘇南地區(qū)、蘇北地區(qū)和蘇中地區(qū),且蘇南地區(qū)遠(yuǎn)高于蘇北和蘇中地區(qū)；科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展貢獻(xiàn)度(斜率)從高到低卻依次是蘇中地區(qū)、蘇北地區(qū)和蘇南地區(qū),說明蘇北地區(qū)和蘇中地區(qū)科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的影響程度更高,但蘇南同蘇中、蘇北的差異是顯著的,而蘇中和蘇北的差異卻未能通過顯著性檢驗。
[Abstract]:With the global crisis of resource depletion, environmental pollution, ecological destruction and so on, it has become one of the hotspots of theoretical research in the field of technology and economy to explore and solve the problem of economic development by relying on the progress of science and technology, and to realize the sustainable development of economy. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of external environment and internal conditions, Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee put forward more clearly the strategy of driving science and technology innovation as the core strategy of economic and social development. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct the index system of scientific and technological progress subsystem and economic sustainable development subsystem, and to explore the impact of scientific and technological progress on the sustainable economic development of Jiangsu Province through the construction of econometric model. Firstly, through the definition of scientific and technological progress and economic sustainable development, the definition of connotation and the combing of relevant theories and domestic and foreign research literature, this paper determines the research object, research perspective and research methods. Then factor analysis is used to select and optimize the initial indicators of scientific and technological progress and economic sustainable development, and the final index system is constructed. Finally, by constructing different econometric models, the paper empirically analyzes the path and regional differences of the impact of scientific and technological progress on economic sustainable development, and puts forward the research conclusions and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on this basis. In the empirical part, first of all, through the structural equation modeling method, this study verifies the direct impact of scientific and technological progress on economic sustainable development, the regulatory role of scientific and technological progress environment, and the role of science and technology input on science and technology output. The direct and indirect effects of scientific input and other variables on sustainable economic development. In order to ensure the accuracy of the conclusions, the parameters, internal quality and goodness of fit of the above models are calculated and analyzed respectively. The results show that the level of scientific and technological progress, the level of scientific and technological input, and the level of scientific and technological output have a positive and significant effect on the sustainable development of economy. The environment of scientific and technological progress has a positive direct and significant impact on both the scientific and technological progress and the sustainable development of economy, and has a greater impact on the scientific and technological progress. The regulatory role of the environment of scientific and technological progress has been verified. At the same time, the further calculation also reveals that there is a certain substitution relationship between the environment of scientific and technological progress and the scientific and technological progress. The direct effect of science and technology input on economic sustainable development is mainly direct effect, and the indirect effect of further influence on economic sustainable development is weaker through the influence of science and technology output. In addition, the direct effect of science and technology output on economic sustainable development is also weak. The empirical part also analyzes the regional differences of the impact of scientific and technological progress on economic sustainable development by integrating the regional virtual variables into the independent variables and the economic sustainable development as dependent variables. The results show that the initial level of economic development (constant term) from high to low are the southern Jiangsu area, the northern Jiangsu area and the central Jiangsu region, and the southern Jiangsu area is much higher than the northern and central Jiangsu regions; The contribution degree (slope) of scientific and technological progress to the sustainable development of economy is from high to low, but the order is in the middle of Jiangsu, the north of Jiangsu and the south of Jiangsu, indicating that the impact of scientific and technological progress on the sustainable development of economy is higher in the north of Jiangsu and in the middle of Jiangsu. But the difference between the south of Jiangsu and the middle of Jiangsu and the north of Jiangsu is significant, but the difference between the middle of Jiangsu and the north of Jiangsu fails to pass the significance test.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 蔡玲玲;羅燕婷;;技術(shù)進(jìn)步對安徽省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)率的實證分析[J];安徽科技;2006年01期

2 張國富;論技術(shù)進(jìn)步與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[J];北京大學(xué)學(xué)報(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);1997年03期

3 張興波;科技投資與科技進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的相關(guān)性研究[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2000年06期

4 唐德祥;袁廿一;皮星;;科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)分析——基于我國東、中、西部地區(qū)的實證研究[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2009年01期

5 沈炳珍;黃漓江;;科技進(jìn)步對浙江經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)研究[J];杭州電子科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2011年02期

6 萬秀英,戴少強,吉愛平,錢東;對科技進(jìn)步統(tǒng)計監(jiān)測工作中存在問題的思考及對策[J];江蘇統(tǒng)計;1998年04期

7 張望;;福建省科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)的計量分析[J];福建工程學(xué)院學(xué)報;2006年01期

8 孟曉華;仇國陽;崔志明;;全局主成分分析在區(qū)域科技創(chuàng)新能力指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建中的應(yīng)用[J];科技管理研究;2006年12期

9 劉希宋;李s，

本文編號：2306136