中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-13 09:27
【摘要】：能源問題是關(guān)系中國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問題。隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的加快，能源需求不斷增長。但是，中國能源利用效率偏低、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式粗放、能源結(jié)構(gòu)不合理等一系列問題進(jìn)一步加劇了能源供需矛盾。能源消費(fèi)以煤為主，優(yōu)質(zhì)能源相對不足；煤炭消費(fèi)是造成煤煙型大氣污染的主要原因，也是溫室氣體排放的主要來源。以上狀況持續(xù)下去，將給經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和生態(tài)環(huán)境帶來更大的壓力。因此，構(gòu)建穩(wěn)定的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)體系面臨著重大挑戰(zhàn)。 論文結(jié)合國家能源經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀，在分析能源經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論的基礎(chǔ)上，將能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)分為能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、人口四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)，運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)工程的思想，對系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了中長期預(yù)測和兩種方案的模擬比較，并構(gòu)建了能源經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。 首先，論文分析了中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)模型的結(jié)構(gòu)，對模型指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)測及設(shè)定，并繪制了系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)流圖，，得到四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測結(jié)果，結(jié)果表明：未來20年，中國能源消費(fèi)總量的增長趨緩，煤炭仍為主要消費(fèi)來源；電力產(chǎn)量不斷增加，其主要來源為煤電；水電核電占總能耗的比重增長緩慢，天然氣消費(fèi)的增長較快，但其比重仍然很低；單位產(chǎn)值能耗明顯降低，但始終處于較高水平；人均產(chǎn)值顯著增加，但目前仍處于世界較低水平；環(huán)境壓力較大，二氧化碳排放量不斷增加；能源消費(fèi)增長速度快于人口增長速度，人均能耗不斷增加，國家仍處于工業(yè)化發(fā)展階段。 然后，論文研究了中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)成，并運(yùn)用熵權(quán)法、Topsis法以及兩者結(jié)合的方法對中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建綜合評價(jià)模型，結(jié)果表明：2001-2010年期間，可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力呈現(xiàn)增強(qiáng)的趨勢，協(xié)調(diào)能力則先增強(qiáng)后減弱；能源發(fā)展水平和人口發(fā)展水平則呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)提升的趨勢；經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平從較差狀態(tài)依次向很強(qiáng)狀態(tài)過渡，其指標(biāo)值逐年增大；而環(huán)境發(fā)展水平則呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)降低的趨勢，且2003年顯著提高、2008年之后明顯下降。 最后，根據(jù)以上研究結(jié)論提出如下建議：節(jié)能優(yōu)先，提高能源利用效率；調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，合理配置能源資源，降低經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對煤炭的依賴程度；增加投資，加大石油、天然氣的勘探力度；提高能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力的同時(shí)，要兼顧系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)能力的提高；統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，進(jìn)而不斷推進(jìn)中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，等等。
[Abstract]:Energy problem is a key issue related to China's national economic growth and sustainable development. With the rapid development and industrialization of Chinese economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the energy demand is increasing. However, a series of problems, such as low energy efficiency, extensive economic growth and unreasonable energy structure, further aggravate the contradiction between energy supply and demand. Coal is the main source of air pollution and the main source of greenhouse gas emission is coal consumption. The above condition continues, will bring the greater pressure to the economic development and the ecological environment. Therefore, the construction of a stable energy economy system is facing a major challenge. On the basis of analyzing the theory of energy economy and the theory of sustainable development, the paper divides the energy economy system into four subsystems: energy, economy, environment and population, and applies the idea of system engineering. The medium and long term prediction of the system and the simulation comparison between the two schemes are carried out, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable development of energy economy is constructed. First of all, the paper analyzes the structure of the Chinese energy economy system model, forecasts and sets the model indexes, and draws the system dynamics flow diagram, and obtains the prediction results of four subsystems. The results show that: in the next 20 years, The growth of China's total energy consumption has slowed, with coal still the main source of consumption; electricity production is constantly increasing, mainly from coal and electricity; the proportion of hydropower and nuclear power to total energy consumption is growing slowly; and the consumption of natural gas is growing rapidly. However, its proportion is still very low; the energy consumption per unit output value is obviously reduced, but it is always at a higher level; the per capita output value has increased significantly, but is still at a relatively low level in the world; Energy consumption is growing faster than population, per capita energy consumption is increasing, and the country is still in the stage of industrialization. Then, the paper studies the composition of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the sustainable development of China's energy economy, and constructs a comprehensive evaluation model of China's energy economy system by using the entropy weight method Topsis method and the method of combining the two methods. The results show that the period 2001-2010 is the period of 2001-2010. The ability of sustainable development shows an increasing trend, while the ability of coordination increases first and then weakens; the level of energy development and the level of population development show a trend of fluctuation and increase; the level of economic development moves from a poor state to a very strong state. The index value increased year by year, while the environmental development level showed a trend of fluctuation and decrease, which increased significantly in 2003 and decreased obviously after 2008. Finally, according to the above conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward: energy saving priority, improving energy use efficiency, adjusting industrial structure, rationally allocating energy resources, reducing the dependence of economic development on coal, increasing investment, increasing oil, The exploration of natural gas; improving the ability of sustainable development of energy economic system, at the same time, taking into account the improvement of the coordination ability of the system; planning the coordinated development of energy, economy, population and environment as a whole, And then continuously promote the sustainable development of China's energy economy, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.5
本文編號：2240756
[Abstract]:Energy problem is a key issue related to China's national economic growth and sustainable development. With the rapid development and industrialization of Chinese economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the energy demand is increasing. However, a series of problems, such as low energy efficiency, extensive economic growth and unreasonable energy structure, further aggravate the contradiction between energy supply and demand. Coal is the main source of air pollution and the main source of greenhouse gas emission is coal consumption. The above condition continues, will bring the greater pressure to the economic development and the ecological environment. Therefore, the construction of a stable energy economy system is facing a major challenge. On the basis of analyzing the theory of energy economy and the theory of sustainable development, the paper divides the energy economy system into four subsystems: energy, economy, environment and population, and applies the idea of system engineering. The medium and long term prediction of the system and the simulation comparison between the two schemes are carried out, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable development of energy economy is constructed. First of all, the paper analyzes the structure of the Chinese energy economy system model, forecasts and sets the model indexes, and draws the system dynamics flow diagram, and obtains the prediction results of four subsystems. The results show that: in the next 20 years, The growth of China's total energy consumption has slowed, with coal still the main source of consumption; electricity production is constantly increasing, mainly from coal and electricity; the proportion of hydropower and nuclear power to total energy consumption is growing slowly; and the consumption of natural gas is growing rapidly. However, its proportion is still very low; the energy consumption per unit output value is obviously reduced, but it is always at a higher level; the per capita output value has increased significantly, but is still at a relatively low level in the world; Energy consumption is growing faster than population, per capita energy consumption is increasing, and the country is still in the stage of industrialization. Then, the paper studies the composition of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the sustainable development of China's energy economy, and constructs a comprehensive evaluation model of China's energy economy system by using the entropy weight method Topsis method and the method of combining the two methods. The results show that the period 2001-2010 is the period of 2001-2010. The ability of sustainable development shows an increasing trend, while the ability of coordination increases first and then weakens; the level of energy development and the level of population development show a trend of fluctuation and increase; the level of economic development moves from a poor state to a very strong state. The index value increased year by year, while the environmental development level showed a trend of fluctuation and decrease, which increased significantly in 2003 and decreased obviously after 2008. Finally, according to the above conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward: energy saving priority, improving energy use efficiency, adjusting industrial structure, rationally allocating energy resources, reducing the dependence of economic development on coal, increasing investment, increasing oil, The exploration of natural gas; improving the ability of sustainable development of energy economic system, at the same time, taking into account the improvement of the coordination ability of the system; planning the coordinated development of energy, economy, population and environment as a whole, And then continuously promote the sustainable development of China's energy economy, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.5
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本文編號：2240756
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