發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-11 12:28

【摘要】：隨著城市人口的不斷增長和規(guī)模的日益擴(kuò)大,城市也會消耗大量的能源、排放大量的溫室氣體,全球化背景下的城市發(fā)展面臨著住房短缺、交通擁堵、資源匱乏、環(huán)境退化等一系列問題,特別是由溫室氣體排放放量增加所導(dǎo)致的氣候變化問題史為明顯。城市低碳發(fā)展路徑足指在城市經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的前提下,保持能源消耗和溫室氣體排放處于較低水平,尋求出一條新的發(fā)展路徑,在城市發(fā)展的整個(gè)過程中,從源頭、過程、末端每個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)著手,控制碳排放,實(shí)現(xiàn)城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 首先,本文分析了北京市低碳發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,二產(chǎn)、三產(chǎn)碳排放較高,其中工業(yè)和交通行業(yè)較為明顯；能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)仍以煤炭、石油等高碳能源種類為主,天然氣等低碳排放能源占比較少；在分析碳排放變化趨勢時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn),首先在碳排放增幅較大的年份,相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率和能源消費(fèi)增幅也較大,說明碳排放受經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源消費(fèi)的影響作用；其次在能源強(qiáng)度縱向比較中得知,工業(yè)的能源強(qiáng)度最高,因此還需通過發(fā)展低碳技術(shù),進(jìn)一步提高能源利用效率；最后,人口數(shù)量及居民生活用能源消費(fèi)的費(fèi)增加也是碳排放增長的重要影響方面。 其次,在現(xiàn)狀分析基礎(chǔ)上,本文使用環(huán)境影響因素[PAT模型,帶入模型分析經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、人口數(shù)量和技術(shù)進(jìn)步因素分別對北京市碳排放量的影響程度,結(jié)論得出的影響程度按大小依次為：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和人口數(shù)量。 最后,根據(jù)以上現(xiàn)狀和影響因素的分析,以低碳發(fā)展路徑為依據(jù),提出北京低碳發(fā)展的途徑建議,其中包括：1、從源頭上,發(fā)展新能源產(chǎn)業(yè),調(diào)整能源結(jié)構(gòu)；2、在消費(fèi)過程中,利用新技術(shù)降低城市能耗；3、在末端,著手管理低碳發(fā)展問題,即控制人口數(shù)量和提高居民低碳意識等方面。能夠改善城市環(huán)境,把握正確調(diào)整方向,把發(fā)展綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)、建設(shè)低碳城市作為首都未來發(fā)展并達(dá)到可持續(xù)低碳發(fā)展的長期目標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth and expansion of urban population, cities will also consume a lot of energy and emit a lot of greenhouse gases. Under the background of globalization, urban development is facing housing shortage, traffic congestion, and lack of resources. A series of problems such as environmental degradation, especially the history of climate change caused by the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, are obvious. The urban low-carbon development path means that under the premise of rapid development of urban economy, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are kept at a relatively low level, and a new development path is sought. In the whole process of urban development, from the source to the process, At the end of each link, to control carbon emissions, to achieve the city's economic, social, environmental and sustainable development. First of all, this paper analyzes the current situation of low-carbon development in Beijing, with high carbon emissions from the second and third industries, among which the industrial and transportation industries are more obvious, and the energy consumption structure is still dominated by coal, petroleum and other high-carbon energy sources. Low-carbon energy sources, such as natural gas, account for less; in the analysis of the trends in carbon emissions, it is found that, first of all, in the years when carbon emissions increase significantly, the corresponding economic growth rate and energy consumption increase are also large. It shows that carbon emissions are affected by economy and energy consumption; secondly, in the longitudinal comparison of energy intensity, industry has the highest energy intensity, so it is necessary to further improve energy efficiency through the development of low-carbon technologies; finally, The increase in population and household energy consumption is also an important factor in the increase in carbon emissions. Secondly, based on the analysis of the current situation, this paper uses the PAT model to analyze the impact of economic growth, population size and technological progress on the carbon emissions in Beijing. Conclusion the degree of influence is: economic growth, technological progress and population. Finally, based on the analysis of the current situation and the influencing factors above, and based on the low-carbon development path, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the ways to develop low-carbon development in Beijing, including: 1, developing new energy industry from the source, adjusting the energy structure, and in the process of consumption, Using the new technology to reduce the energy consumption of the city, at the end, we should manage the problem of low carbon development, that is, to control the population and raise the low carbon consciousness of the residents and so on. It can improve the urban environment, grasp the correct adjustment direction, take the development of green economy and the construction of low-carbon city as the future development of the capital and achieve the long-term goal of sustainable low-carbon development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X321;F124.5

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