人民幣匯率改革對(duì)大連市對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的實(shí)證分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-08 10:09
【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的發(fā)展，各國(guó)或地區(qū)間的經(jīng)濟(jì)交流變得越來越廣泛和密切。在國(guó)家進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)交流的過程中，匯率作為一個(gè)非常重要的因素，不僅會(huì)對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家的總體經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重要影響，而且會(huì)對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)，尤其是一些對(duì)外開放程度較高的城市產(chǎn)生重要影響。因此，在如今全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢而我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍保持快速增長(zhǎng)，西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家不斷向我國(guó)施加壓力，要求人民幣升值的情況下，，研究匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響具有非常深遠(yuǎn)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。鑒于此，筆者選取了我國(guó)第一批開放的14個(gè)沿海城市之一大連市作為研究對(duì)象，具體分析研究人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)其對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響，并為其今后的發(fā)展提出積極的政策建議。 本文利用理論分析和實(shí)證分析、定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法，對(duì)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率是如何影響大連市對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)行了分析和檢驗(yàn)。本文共分為五部分。 前兩部分首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易和外商直接投資影響的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要綜述，接著介紹了匯率的相關(guān)理論，并對(duì)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)貿(mào)易收支和外商直接投資影響的經(jīng)典理論進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的概述。 第三部分首先介紹了人民幣匯率制度的演變和現(xiàn)狀，并分析了人民幣匯率未來的升值趨勢(shì)及其升值的原因；然后，結(jié)合大連市對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的狀況，分析了大連市發(fā)展對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)過程中存在的問題，為進(jìn)一步分析實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)大連市外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，提出了現(xiàn)實(shí)需求和實(shí)證基礎(chǔ)；最后，從定性分析的角度分析研究了人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)大連市對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，得出人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)大連市進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響確實(shí)符合“J”曲線效應(yīng)，外商直接投資的變化情況也與傳統(tǒng)理論相符的結(jié)論。 在第四部分中，筆者借鑒已有的研究成果，建立了人民實(shí)際有效匯率與大連市進(jìn)出口額和實(shí)際使用外商直接投資額的簡(jiǎn)易模型，運(yùn)用多種計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法研究得出結(jié)論：首先，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)1%，大連市進(jìn)口額變動(dòng)1.717387%，出口額減少1.785199%；人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與大連市進(jìn)出口額之間存在顯著的因果關(guān)系。長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，進(jìn)出口匯率彈性系數(shù)絕對(duì)值之和大于1，所以馬歇爾—勒納條件在大連市是成立的，長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率升值會(huì)抑制大連市出口，增加大連市進(jìn)口，惡化大連市貿(mào)易收支；短期內(nèi)，出口匯率彈性系數(shù)和進(jìn)口匯率彈性系數(shù)絕對(duì)值之和小于1，說明短期內(nèi)匯率升值會(huì)改善大連市貿(mào)易收支，所以匯率對(duì)大連市貿(mào)易收支的影響存在明顯的“J”曲線效應(yīng)。其次，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)與外商直接投資存在著負(fù)相關(guān)性，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率升值1%，大連市外商直接投資就減少10.81001%。因此人民幣匯率升值不利于引進(jìn)外資，不利于大連市對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。 最后，根據(jù)前文研究的結(jié)論，針對(duì)大連市政府和企業(yè)，提出了應(yīng)對(duì)人民幣匯率改革的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, economic exchanges among countries or regions have become more and more extensive and close. In the process of economic exchanges among countries, exchange rate, as a very important factor, will not only have an important impact on the overall economy of a country, especially on the external economy, but also on the regional economy, especially on some of them. Therefore, it is of great realistic significance to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on a country or region's external economy under the circumstances that the global economic growth is slow and China's economy is still growing rapidly and the western developed countries are constantly exerting pressure on China to revalue the RMB. In view of this, the author selects Dalian, one of the first 14 open coastal cities in China, as the research object, analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on its external economic development, and puts forward positive policy recommendations for its future development.
This paper analyzes and tests how the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi affects Dalian's foreign economic development by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
In the first two parts, firstly, the domestic and foreign literatures on the impact of exchange rate changes on import and export trade and foreign direct investment are briefly reviewed, then the relevant theories of exchange rate are introduced, and the classical theories of the impact of exchange rate changes on trade balance and foreign direct investment are systematically summarized.
The third part firstly introduces the evolution and current situation of the RMB exchange rate system, and analyzes the future appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate and the reasons for its appreciation; then, combined with the situation of Dalian's foreign economic development, analyzes the existing problems in the process of Dalian's foreign economic development, and further analyzes the real exchange rate changes in Dalian. Finally, from the perspective of qualitative analysis, this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Dalian's foreign economy, and concludes that the impact of RMB real exchange rate change on Dalian's import and export trade really conforms to the "J" curve effect, and the change of foreign direct investment. A conclusion that is also consistent with the traditional theory.
In the fourth part, the author draws lessons from the existing research results, establishes a simple model of the real effective exchange rate of the people, the import and export volume of Dalian City and the actual use of foreign direct investment. Using a variety of econometric methods, the author draws the following conclusions: First, the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi changes by 1%, the import volume of Dalian City changes by 1.717387%, and the export volume changes by 1.717387%. In the long run, the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient of the exchange rate of import and export is greater than 1, so the Marshall-Lerner condition is established in Dalian. In the long run, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will restrain the export of Dalian and increase greatly. In the short term, the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient of the export exchange rate and the elasticity coefficient of the import exchange rate is less than 1, which indicates that the appreciation of the exchange rate will improve the trade balance of Dalian in the short term, so the exchange rate has an obvious "J" curve effect on the trade balance of Dalian. Secondly, the effective exchange rate of Renminbi is the real effective exchange rate. There is a negative correlation between the change of RMB exchange rate and FDI. The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate is 1% and the decrease of FDI in Dalian is 10.81001%. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate is not conducive to the introduction of foreign capital and the development of Dalian's foreign economy.
Finally, according to the conclusions of the previous study, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the government and enterprises of Dalian to deal with the reform of RMB exchange rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F832.6
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, economic exchanges among countries or regions have become more and more extensive and close. In the process of economic exchanges among countries, exchange rate, as a very important factor, will not only have an important impact on the overall economy of a country, especially on the external economy, but also on the regional economy, especially on some of them. Therefore, it is of great realistic significance to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on a country or region's external economy under the circumstances that the global economic growth is slow and China's economy is still growing rapidly and the western developed countries are constantly exerting pressure on China to revalue the RMB. In view of this, the author selects Dalian, one of the first 14 open coastal cities in China, as the research object, analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on its external economic development, and puts forward positive policy recommendations for its future development.
This paper analyzes and tests how the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi affects Dalian's foreign economic development by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
In the first two parts, firstly, the domestic and foreign literatures on the impact of exchange rate changes on import and export trade and foreign direct investment are briefly reviewed, then the relevant theories of exchange rate are introduced, and the classical theories of the impact of exchange rate changes on trade balance and foreign direct investment are systematically summarized.
The third part firstly introduces the evolution and current situation of the RMB exchange rate system, and analyzes the future appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate and the reasons for its appreciation; then, combined with the situation of Dalian's foreign economic development, analyzes the existing problems in the process of Dalian's foreign economic development, and further analyzes the real exchange rate changes in Dalian. Finally, from the perspective of qualitative analysis, this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Dalian's foreign economy, and concludes that the impact of RMB real exchange rate change on Dalian's import and export trade really conforms to the "J" curve effect, and the change of foreign direct investment. A conclusion that is also consistent with the traditional theory.
In the fourth part, the author draws lessons from the existing research results, establishes a simple model of the real effective exchange rate of the people, the import and export volume of Dalian City and the actual use of foreign direct investment. Using a variety of econometric methods, the author draws the following conclusions: First, the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi changes by 1%, the import volume of Dalian City changes by 1.717387%, and the export volume changes by 1.717387%. In the long run, the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient of the exchange rate of import and export is greater than 1, so the Marshall-Lerner condition is established in Dalian. In the long run, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will restrain the export of Dalian and increase greatly. In the short term, the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient of the export exchange rate and the elasticity coefficient of the import exchange rate is less than 1, which indicates that the appreciation of the exchange rate will improve the trade balance of Dalian in the short term, so the exchange rate has an obvious "J" curve effect on the trade balance of Dalian. Secondly, the effective exchange rate of Renminbi is the real effective exchange rate. There is a negative correlation between the change of RMB exchange rate and FDI. The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate is 1% and the decrease of FDI in Dalian is 10.81001%. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate is not conducive to the introduction of foreign capital and the development of Dalian's foreign economy.
Finally, according to the conclusions of the previous study, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the government and enterprises of Dalian to deal with the reform of RMB exchange rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F832.6
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