【摘要】：近年來,社會(huì)各界對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本的變動(dòng)情況都十分關(guān)注,國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布2012年統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)指出,中國勞動(dòng)力人口絕對(duì)數(shù)量的首次下降,勞動(dòng)力成本再次成為關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題。當(dāng)前勞動(dòng)力成本普遍上漲已成定勢(shì),對(duì)居民個(gè)人、企業(yè)乃至整個(gè)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了重要的影響。 四川是農(nóng)業(yè)大省,勞動(dòng)力資源豐富,但近年來隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和劉易斯拐點(diǎn)的到來,我省勞動(dòng)力成本的快速上漲使得經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨復(fù)雜境地。一方面,勞動(dòng)力成本的上漲使得企業(yè)面臨產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、增強(qiáng)自主創(chuàng)新能力的壓力；另一方面,勞動(dòng)力成本上升有利于擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需,促進(jìn)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。在這種背景下,對(duì)我省勞動(dòng)力成本變動(dòng)情況及其經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的研究就具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先對(duì)文中相關(guān)的重點(diǎn)概念進(jìn)行界定和梳理,總結(jié)出我國勞動(dòng)力成本上漲的相關(guān)理論研究,綜合闡述國內(nèi)外的研究成果,在此基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)四川省勞動(dòng)力成本變動(dòng)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本變動(dòng)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了概況。以職工工資衡量的勞動(dòng)力成本基數(shù)大、增長(zhǎng)快。我省在崗職工平均工資從1992年到2011年增長(zhǎng)15.43倍,年均名義增速達(dá)到15.49%,特別是近兩年來,政府上調(diào)最低工資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和企業(yè)加薪兩項(xiàng)措施后,勞動(dòng)力成本較大幅度上升。從增長(zhǎng)率來看,總體上保持著較高的增長(zhǎng)速度,平均每年的增長(zhǎng)率可達(dá)到15%。以社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)為代表的勞動(dòng)力間接成本不斷向上攀升,隨著城鎮(zhèn)社會(huì)保障制度的逐步建立,社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)待遇水平得到進(jìn)一步提高。2011年全省社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)基金征繳五項(xiàng)總額已達(dá)到1177.9億元,與2007年增長(zhǎng)2.7倍。另一方面,我省城鄉(xiāng)間收入與支出差異較大,不同地區(qū)、行業(yè)和性質(zhì)的企業(yè)間勞動(dòng)力成本差異大。 接下來,對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本上升的原因進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)、全面詳細(xì)的闡述,供求關(guān)系變化、生活成本、政府政策和法規(guī)、勞動(dòng)者素質(zhì)和勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率共同作用于勞動(dòng)力成本,致使我省勞動(dòng)力成本不斷上漲。 然后結(jié)合本文的研究實(shí)際,選取四川省人均GDP、城鎮(zhèn)職工平均工資、工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)總額、城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)等影響勞動(dòng)力成本上漲的效應(yīng)指標(biāo),運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型(VAR)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了勞動(dòng)力成本上漲對(duì)居民、微觀企業(yè)、地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展乃至整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況的影響,通過Granger因果檢驗(yàn)和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)研究了職工工資與居民消費(fèi)、物價(jià)指數(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)均衡關(guān)系。最后在相關(guān)理論及模型分析的基礎(chǔ)上,聯(lián)系實(shí)際情況,給出未來勞動(dòng)力成本的變化趨勢(shì),并對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本變化給出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, people from all walks of life have paid close attention to the change of labor cost. The National Bureau of Statistics released a statistics bulletin in 2012 that the absolute number of Chinese labor force has declined for the first time, and labor cost has once again become a hot issue. At present, the general rise in labor costs has become a fixed trend, which has had an important impact on individual residents, enterprises and even the whole society and economy. Sichuan is a big agricultural province with abundant labor resources, but with the rapid development of economy and the arrival of Lewis inflection point in recent years, the rapid rise of labor costs in Sichuan Province makes the economy face a complex situation. On the one hand, the rise of labor cost makes enterprises face the pressure of industrial structure adjustment and strengthen the ability of independent innovation; on the other hand, the rise of labor cost is conducive to expand domestic demand and promote regional economic growth. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the change of labor cost and its economic effect in our province. This paper firstly defines and combs the relevant key concepts in this paper, summarizes the relevant theoretical research on the rise of labor costs in China, and comprehensively expounds the research results at home and abroad. Based on the data of labor cost change in Sichuan province, the current situation of labor cost change is summarized. The base of labor cost measured by worker's salary is big, growth is fast. The average wage of employed workers in our province increased 15.43 times from 1992 to 2011, and the annual nominal growth rate reached 15.49. especially in the past two years, after the government raised the minimum wage standard and the enterprise pay increase, the labor cost increased by a large margin. From the growth rate, overall maintain a high growth rate, the average annual growth rate can reach 15. The indirect cost of labor, represented by social insurance, has been rising continuously. With the gradual establishment of the urban social security system, the level of social insurance benefits has been further improved. In 2011, the total collection of five items of social insurance funds in the whole province has reached 117.79 billion yuan. That was 2.7 times higher than in 2007. On the other hand, there is a great difference between rural income and expenditure, and the labor cost varies greatly among different regions, industries and enterprises. Then, the reasons for the rise of labor costs are systematically explained in detail, including the changes of supply and demand, the cost of living, the government policies and regulations, the quality of workers and the productivity of labor. As a result of our province's labor costs continue to rise. Then combined with the actual research in this paper, we select the average wages of urban workers per capita in Sichuan Province, the total profits of industrial enterprises, the consumption of urban residents, and so on, which affect the increase of labor costs. Using the vector autoregressive model (VAR), the paper empirically tests the effect of labor cost rise on residents, micro enterprises, regional economic development and even the whole national economy. By means of Granger causality test and impulse response function, the long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between employee wage and resident consumption, price index and economic growth is studied. Finally, on the basis of the analysis of relevant theories and models, combined with the actual situation, the change trend of labor cost in the future is given, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the change of labor cost are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F249.27;F127;F224

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