【摘要】：2008年次貸危機以來世界經(jīng)濟形勢持續(xù)動蕩，不僅使美國本土經(jīng)濟遭受嚴重打擊，也使世界上其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟陷入泥潭，也使中國經(jīng)濟受到巨大的影響。根據(jù)國民收入決定理論公式Y(GDP)=C+I+G+NX國內生產(chǎn)總值主要由消費、投資、政府支出以及進出口凈值四大部分組成，受目前世界經(jīng)濟危機的影響，我國的出口貿易總額劇烈下滑，導致進出口凈額(NX)大幅縮小，而目前我國的投資(I)跟政府支出(G)均處在相當高位的水平，繼續(xù)增加有可能會引發(fā)一系列的經(jīng)濟問題。在這樣的背景下，如何啟動國內持續(xù)低迷的消費水平，以內需代替外需來拉動中國經(jīng)濟增長已經(jīng)成為眼下迫切需要解決的問題。 在中國經(jīng)濟的歷史上消費也曾經(jīng)是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要推動力，比如在1992年的時候消費對GDP增長的貢獻率甚至達到了72.5%的高水平，但是自1993年開始消費對GDP增長的貢獻率開始出現(xiàn)劇烈的波動，至2010年的時候消費對GDP增長的貢獻率已不足40%。之所以會出現(xiàn)這樣的情況我認為跟政府在這一時期選擇的財政政策有一定的關系，在1993年以前中國實行的一直是力求保持財政、信貸和物資三大平衡的財政政策，93年以后政府才開始重視財政政策調控國家宏觀經(jīng)濟的作用。特別是在98年亞洲金融危機以后政府開始首次實行積極財政政策，，但是也是從這一時期開始居民的消費水平開始一路下滑。 基于98年積極財政政策實施以來中國消費持續(xù)走低的現(xiàn)象，本文將重點研究財政支出結構對居民消費的影響。財政政策作為國家調控經(jīng)濟的一種手段，其對消費的影響反映在很多方面，但直接的影響卻并不明顯。而收入作為影響居民消費水平的首要因素，卻會受到稅收、政府轉移支付、教育支出、社會保障支出等財政支出各部分的直接影響。因此本文將重點從收入入手來分析財政支出結構對居民消費的影響程度。另外考慮到自98年以來中國物價持續(xù)走高，物價的不穩(wěn)定成為限制居民消費的一個潛在重要因素，因此本文在以收入為主要研究方向上還將簡單探討財政支出結構各部分變動對物價的影響。 文章通過對1978年-2010年我國財政支出的各項數(shù)據(jù)以及收入水平和物價的變動程度進行實證分析得出目前在我國的財政支出各部分中增加教育支出與社會保障支出對提高居民收入的效果最為顯著，且對提高農村居民的收入水平的效果要優(yōu)于城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)，而基本建設支出對居民收入的影響則不太明顯，行政管理支出的影響則為負，增加支農支出對提高農村居民收入具有顯著作用。這些結論為我國下一步財政支出結構的調整向民生方面傾斜提供了理論基礎。
[Abstract]:The continued turmoil in the world economy since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has not only severely hit the local economy of the United States, but also plunged the economy of other parts of the world into a quagmire, which has also greatly affected the economy of China. According to the theoretical formula for determining national income, Y (GDP) C I G NX gross domestic product is mainly composed of four major parts: consumption, investment, government expenditure and net import and export. Under the influence of the current world economic crisis, the total export trade of our country has dropped sharply. As a result, net (NX) of import and export shrinks sharply, and the investment (I) and government expenditure (G) are both at a high level in our country at present, and further increase may lead to a series of economic problems. In this context, how to start the domestic consumption level, domestic demand instead of external demand to stimulate China's economic growth has become an urgent need to solve the problem. In the history of China's economy, consumption has also been an important driving force for economic development. For example, in 1992, consumption contributed to GDP growth at a high level of 72.5%. But the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth began to fluctuate sharply since 1993, and the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth was less than 40% in 2010. The reason for this situation is that I think it has something to do with the fiscal policy chosen by the government during this period. Before 1993, China had been striving to maintain its finances. After 93 years, the government began to attach importance to the role of fiscal policy in regulating the state's macro economy. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the government began to implement active fiscal policy for the first time, but from this period, the consumption level of residents began to decline. Based on the phenomenon that China's consumption has been declining since the implementation of the active fiscal policy in 1998, this paper will focus on the study of the influence of the structure of fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption. Fiscal policy, as a means of adjusting and controlling economy, reflects on consumption in many aspects, but the direct influence is not obvious. However, income, as the primary factor affecting the consumption level of residents, will be directly affected by tax revenue, government transfer payment, education expenditure, social security expenditure and so on. Therefore, this paper will focus on income to analyze the impact of financial expenditure structure on the consumption of residents. Considering also that prices in China have continued to rise since 1998 and that price instability has become a potentially important factor limiting the consumption of residents, Therefore, this paper will also briefly discuss the influence of the changes of fiscal expenditure structure on prices in the income as the main research direction. Through the empirical analysis of the data of fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2010 and the change of income level and price in China, this paper draws a conclusion that education expenditure and social security expenditure are increased in all parts of fiscal expenditure in our country at present. The effect of raising residents' income is the most remarkable. Moreover, the effect of improving the income level of rural residents is better than that of urban areas, while the effect of capital construction expenditure on residents' income is not obvious, and the effect of administrative expenditure is negative. Increasing the expenditure on supporting agriculture has a significant effect on raising the income of rural residents. These conclusions provide a theoretical basis for the adjustment of fiscal expenditure structure to people's livelihood.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.45;F126.1

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