【摘要】：進入21世紀后,長三角地區(qū)以其經(jīng)濟迅猛發(fā)展和區(qū)域一體化趨勢,成為世界矚目的焦點。但與此同時,一些新問題和新矛盾開始凸顯：2004年,長三角地區(qū)出現(xiàn)較大范圍的“用工荒”；2007年,無錫發(fā)生大面積藍藻事件；2008年,受金融危機影響,外資對長三角地區(qū)的投資熱情開始降溫,長三角地區(qū)部分企業(yè)經(jīng)營出現(xiàn)困難……。隨著支撐長三角經(jīng)濟發(fā)展要素條件的變化,傳統(tǒng)的不平衡、不協(xié)調(diào)、不可持續(xù)的粗放型增長模式已走到盡頭,轉(zhuǎn)型升級勢在必行。在未來的20-30年時間內(nèi),長三角地區(qū)能否順利完成轉(zhuǎn)型,華麗轉(zhuǎn)身,關(guān)系到長三角區(qū)域現(xiàn)代化目標的實現(xiàn),以及具有國際競爭力的世界級城市群的建成。 從歷史的發(fā)展角度來看,任何社會的發(fā)展都不是直線式的,轉(zhuǎn)型可以說是社會發(fā)展進程中轉(zhuǎn)折躍升的“驚險一跳”。工業(yè)革命以前的歷史,經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展速度相對緩慢,這種“驚險一跳”表現(xiàn)并不明顯。然而工業(yè)革命開啟了人類現(xiàn)代化進程,使經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的速度大大加快,由此帶來的階段性躍升和轉(zhuǎn)變也更加頻繁和突出。因此,從現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展的歷史深處出發(fā),運用現(xiàn)代化相關(guān)理論以及社會變遷理論,可以為我國當前轉(zhuǎn)型的科學定位和系統(tǒng)研究提供一種全新的視角�；诖�,本文嘗試通過分析世界現(xiàn)代化進程,從歷史深處探源尋求轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的內(nèi)在必然性,以期為我國當前的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展提供理論支持；然后在對我國當前轉(zhuǎn)型科學解讀的基礎(chǔ)上,對長三角地區(qū)的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展進行理論探源與實證分析。全文主要研究結(jié)論如下： (1)轉(zhuǎn)型是現(xiàn)代化的題中應(yīng)有之義,是現(xiàn)代化諸因素矛盾與沖突的必然結(jié)果。現(xiàn)代化是整體性的社會變遷,它不僅僅是生產(chǎn)力的發(fā)展,還包括生產(chǎn)關(guān)系的調(diào)整。而且正是生產(chǎn)力與生產(chǎn)關(guān)系的矛盾運動,推動著現(xiàn)代化進程不斷向高層次演進,轉(zhuǎn)型即是生產(chǎn)力和生產(chǎn)關(guān)系的矛盾累積到一定程度的必然結(jié)果。因此,轉(zhuǎn)型是現(xiàn)代化的題中應(yīng)有之義,是生產(chǎn)力和生產(chǎn)關(guān)系不斷適應(yīng)并階段性提升的結(jié)果。另一方面,雖然現(xiàn)代化是整體性的社會變革,但是在一定時期內(nèi)卻很難將各方面同步推進。現(xiàn)代化的各因素的不同步發(fā)展,必然會造成一定時期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟、社會和環(huán)境等發(fā)展的不平衡、不和諧。這種不平衡、不和諧,正是深層次的生產(chǎn)力和生產(chǎn)關(guān)系矛盾的具有體現(xiàn),它推動著現(xiàn)代化的演進,使得轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展成為必然。轉(zhuǎn)型正是現(xiàn)代化諸因素矛盾與沖突的必然結(jié)果。 (2)當前我國正面臨著現(xiàn)代化進程中的第四次轉(zhuǎn)型,這是一場全面、多元、復(fù)合轉(zhuǎn)型。我國的現(xiàn)代化進程至今已有150多年的歷史,期間共出現(xiàn)三次模式大轉(zhuǎn)換,階段性特征明顯。當前我國正面臨著現(xiàn)代化進程中的第四次轉(zhuǎn)型。這次轉(zhuǎn)型與前三次不同,不再是單一的經(jīng)濟體制或政治體制轉(zhuǎn)變,而是一場全面、多元、復(fù)合轉(zhuǎn)型,是適應(yīng)全面現(xiàn)代化要求的“五位一體”轉(zhuǎn)型,需要推進現(xiàn)代化在經(jīng)濟、社會、政治、文化、生態(tài)五個領(lǐng)域的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 (3)轉(zhuǎn)型是長三角“時空共振”下的的必然選擇,是“時空二維”與“內(nèi)容五維”轉(zhuǎn)型的統(tǒng)一。從時間演化角度分析,現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展的階段性規(guī)律決定了長三角轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的必然性；從空間演變角度來看,區(qū)域空間結(jié)構(gòu)演化規(guī)律決定了長三角空間結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和轉(zhuǎn)型的必要性。因此,轉(zhuǎn)型是長三角“時空共振”下的必然選擇,它首先是“時空二維”轉(zhuǎn)型的內(nèi)在統(tǒng)一；其次在現(xiàn)代化內(nèi)容上,又是相互關(guān)聯(lián)的“五位一體”轉(zhuǎn)型,是“時空二維”與“內(nèi)容五維”轉(zhuǎn)型的統(tǒng)一。 (4)當前長三角經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展中存在眾多結(jié)構(gòu)性和素質(zhì)性矛盾,是轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實基礎(chǔ)。長三角的轉(zhuǎn)型,不僅是理論上已經(jīng)進入“轉(zhuǎn)折點”,更是現(xiàn)實中各種矛盾與問題不斷加劇的必然選擇。本文研究認為,長三角地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)型的現(xiàn)實依據(jù)主要有五點：經(jīng)濟增長效率低下,難以維持經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速增長；居民消費占比偏低,高投資和出口導(dǎo)向模式不可持續(xù)；經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào),引發(fā)各種社會矛盾和問題；要素成本不斷上升,資源環(huán)境約束加大；城市群集聚效應(yīng)不高,區(qū)域空間結(jié)構(gòu)有待優(yōu)化。 (5)近年塞長三角地區(qū)的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展總體趨勢向好,但各領(lǐng)域的轉(zhuǎn)型進展仍不夠協(xié)調(diào)。本文依據(jù)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展訴求,建立轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展評價指標體系,構(gòu)建了靜態(tài)的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展水平(TDL)和動態(tài)的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展指數(shù)(TDI)兩個指標。指標體系包括五個一級指標和30個二級指標,運用層次分析法和熵值法對指標體系進行了組合賦權(quán),并據(jù)此對長三角轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展進行了縱向和橫向的比較分析。 橫向的靜態(tài)比較,計算了2000、2005、2011年三個時點上長三角及全國沿海部分省市的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展水平,結(jié)果顯示,無論是作為區(qū)域整體的長三角地區(qū),還是區(qū)域內(nèi)部的江浙滬三省市,其轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展水平一直位于全國前列,尤其在社會轉(zhuǎn)型和生態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)型等方面,效果顯著,表現(xiàn)為我國沿海轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的前沿陣地。縱向的動態(tài)分析,計算了長三角及三省市的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展指數(shù),結(jié)果顯示,自2000年以來長三角地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)良好的變化趨勢,但是各領(lǐng)域的轉(zhuǎn)型并不完全協(xié)調(diào)和同步,三省市存在的主要問題也基本相同,主要是經(jīng)濟增長效益與經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化進展較慢,滯后于整體轉(zhuǎn)型的步伐； (6)長三角轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展面臨眾多制約因素,同時又擁有良好的現(xiàn)實機遇。當前制約長三角轉(zhuǎn)型的因素主要有：傳統(tǒng)發(fā)展觀念、制度的缺陷、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的缺陷、較弱的自主創(chuàng)新能力以及行政區(qū)經(jīng)濟的阻礙等。在面臨眾多制約因素的同時,長三角也擁有良好的現(xiàn)實機遇,主要體現(xiàn)在：城市層面,上�！八膫�中心”建設(shè)帶來的戰(zhàn)略機遇；區(qū)域?qū)用?多重倒逼機制有利于促進長三角轉(zhuǎn)型；國家層面,加快推進長三角一體化進程有利于加快區(qū)域轉(zhuǎn)型；國際層面,全球經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和第三次工業(yè)革命帶來了發(fā)展的機遇。 (7)長三角轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展內(nèi)容繁多,需要進行整體設(shè)計,明確轉(zhuǎn)型的重點和關(guān)鍵對策。長三角地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)型內(nèi)容眾多,紛繁復(fù)雜,而且相互交織、相互滲透,因此需要深刻理解各方面轉(zhuǎn)型之間的相互關(guān)系,進行頂層設(shè)計,從整體的高度全面謀劃長三角轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展。這就需要從眾多的轉(zhuǎn)型內(nèi)容中抓住轉(zhuǎn)型的重點和方向,本文通過圖解分析,尋找長三角轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵詞和發(fā)展的重點,認為優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、保障社會公平、加強自主創(chuàng)新能力建設(shè)、深化體制機制改革、提升核心城市功能,發(fā)展平臺經(jīng)濟、推進區(qū)域一體化等應(yīng)該是長三角未來轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的重點所在。
[Abstract]:After entering the 21st century, the Yangtze River Delta region has become the focus of world attention with its rapid economic development and regional integration trend. But at the same time, some new problems and contradictions have begun to highlight: in 2004, the Yangtze River Delta region appeared a wider range of "labor shortage"; in 2007, a large area of cyanobacteria occurred in Wuxi; in 2008, by the financial crisis. As a result, the enthusiasm of foreign investment in the Yangtze River Delta region has begun to cool down, and some enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region are facing difficulties in operation. Whether the Yangtze River Delta region can successfully complete the transformation and turn around magnificently is related to the realization of the modernization goal of the Yangtze River Delta region and the establishment of the world-class urban agglomeration with international competitiveness.
From the historical point of view, the development of any society is not linear, and the transformation can be said to be a "thrilling leap" in the process of social development. Processes have greatly accelerated the pace of economic and social development, resulting in more frequent and prominent stages of leaps and changes. Therefore, from the historical depths of modernization development, the use of modernization-related theories and social change theory can provide a new perspective for China's current transformation of the scientific positioning and system research. Based on this, this paper attempts to analyze the process of world modernization, explore the inherent inevitability of transformation and development from the depth of history, in order to provide theoretical support for China's current transformation and development; and then on the basis of scientific interpretation of China's current transformation, the Yangtze River Delta region's transformation and development of theoretical exploration and empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Transition is the inherent meaning of modernization and the inevitable result of contradictions and conflicts among the various factors of modernization. Modernization is a social change of the whole, which is not only the development of productive forces, but also the adjustment of production relations. Transition is the inevitable result of the accumulation of contradictions between productive forces and relations of production to a certain extent. Therefore, transformation is the inherent meaning of modernization and the result of continuous adaptation and gradual improvement of productive forces and relations of production. On the other hand, although modernization is a holistic social change, it is difficult to bring all aspects into play in a certain period of time. The asynchronous development of various factors of modernization will inevitably lead to the imbalance and disharmony of economic, social and environmental development in a certain period of time. This imbalance and disharmony is the embodiment of the contradiction between the deep-seated productive forces and production relations. It promotes the evolution of modernization and makes the transformation and development inevitable. It is the inevitable result of contradictions and conflicts in various factors of modernization.
(2) At present, China is facing the fourth transformation in the process of modernization, which is a comprehensive, pluralistic and compound transformation. The process of modernization in China has a history of more than 150 years, during which there have been three major transformation of modes with obvious characteristics of stages. At present, China is facing the fourth transformation in the process of modernization. Secondly, it is no longer a single economic system or political system transformation, but a comprehensive, pluralistic, compound transformation. It is a "five in one" transformation that meets the requirements of comprehensive modernization. It needs to promote the coordinated development of modernization in the five fields of economy, society, politics, culture and ecology.
(3) Transition is the inevitable choice under the "space-time resonance" of the Yangtze River Delta, and the unity of "space-time two-dimensional" and "content five-dimensional" transformation. Therefore, the transformation is the inevitable choice under the "space-time resonance" of the Yangtze River Delta. First, it is the internal unity of the "space-time two-dimensional" transformation; secondly, it is the "five-in-one" transformation related to each other in the content of modernization, and it is the unity of the "space-time two-dimensional" and "content five-dimensional" transformation.
(4) There are many structural and qualitative contradictions in the economic and social development of the Yangtze River Delta, which is the realistic foundation of the transformation and development. There should be five points: inefficient economic growth, it is difficult to maintain sustained and high-speed economic growth; low proportion of residents'consumption, high investment and unsustainable export-oriented model; inconsistent economic and social development, resulting in a variety of social contradictions and problems; rising factor costs, resource and environmental constraints; low urban agglomeration effect, regional agglomeration The spatial structure needs to be optimized.
(5) In recent years, the overall trend of transformation and development in the Seychelles-Yangtze River Delta region has been improving, but the progress of transformation in various fields is still not coordinated. According to the demand of modernization, this paper establishes an evaluation index system of transformation and development, and constructs two indicators: static level of transition development (TDL) and dynamic index of transition and development (TDI). The index system and 30 secondary indexes are combined and weighted by AHP and entropy method, and the longitudinal and horizontal comparative analysis of the transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta is carried out.
Horizontal static comparison is made to calculate the transformation and development levels of the Yangtze River Delta and some coastal provinces and cities in China at the three time points of 2000, 2005 and 2011. The results show that the transformation and development levels of the Yangtze River Delta and the three provinces and cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have always been in the forefront of the whole country, especially in social transformation and ecological transformation. Vertical dynamic analysis has calculated the transformation development index of the Yangtze River Delta and the three provinces and cities. The results show that the transformation development of the Yangtze River Delta region has shown a good trend since 2000, but the transformation of various fields is not completely coordinated and synchronized. The main problems are basically the same, mainly economic growth efficiency and economic structure optimization progress is slow, lagging behind the pace of overall transformation;
(6) The transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta are faced with many constraints and good opportunities. At present, the main factors restricting the transformation of the Yangtze River Delta are: traditional development concepts, institutional defects, development strategy defects, weak ability of independent innovation and Administrative economic obstacles. At the city level, the strategic opportunities brought about by the construction of the "four centers" in Shanghai; at the regional level, multiple inversion mechanisms are conducive to promoting the transformation of the Yangtze River Delta; at the national level, accelerating the integration process of the Yangtze River Delta is conducive to accelerating the regional transformation; at the international level, the restructuring of the global economy and The third industrial revolution has brought opportunities for development.
(7) The transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta has a great variety of contents, which need to be designed as a whole to clarify the key points and Countermeasures of the transformation. This requires us to grasp the focus and direction of the transformation from a large number of transformation contents. Through graphic analysis, this paper seeks the key words and development focus of the transformation of the Yangtze River Delta. It holds that optimizing the industrial structure, ensuring social equity, strengthening the construction of independent innovation capacity, deepening the reform of the system and mechanism, enhancing the function of the core cities, and developing the platform. Economy and promoting regional integration should be the focus of the future transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127

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