基于最小二乘支持向量機(jī)的社會(huì)代價(jià)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-06 15:21
【摘要】：自1978年改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了30多年的高速增長，被國際社會(huì)稱為“中國增長奇跡”，引起了廣泛關(guān)注。與此同時(shí)，一些與快速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長沖突的不和諧社會(huì)現(xiàn)象也隨之產(chǎn)生，如社會(huì)保障、勞動(dòng)就業(yè)、收入差距，貪污腐化、治安惡化等，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生了不利影響。本文將上述經(jīng)濟(jì)增長過程中并發(fā)的社會(huì)問題視為社會(huì)代價(jià)，以此描述經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面效應(yīng)，并將其作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的重要指標(biāo)，以中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為背景，基于最小二乘支持向量機(jī)方法，從定量的角度測(cè)算社會(huì)代價(jià)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。 首先，從社會(huì)代價(jià)視角探討了貧富分化的表現(xiàn)及特點(diǎn)，形成的原因以及測(cè)量的方法和指標(biāo)，在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)貧富分化現(xiàn)象作出經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析。選擇城鄉(xiāng)居民恩格爾系數(shù)差值、基尼系數(shù)、城市居民可支配收入/農(nóng)村居民純收入指標(biāo)來描述貧富分化程度，人均GDP及GDP不變價(jià)增長率指標(biāo)描述經(jīng)濟(jì)增長狀況。通過本文提出的最優(yōu)參數(shù)支持向量回歸方法，構(gòu)造貧富分化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響關(guān)系模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：貧富分化初期，收入差距的增加產(chǎn)生激勵(lì)作用，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；貧富分化中期，激勵(lì)作用與抑制作用并存；貧富分化發(fā)展到一定程度，激勵(lì)作用讓位于抑制作用；貧富分化的不穩(wěn)定對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有負(fù)向作用。 其次，從社會(huì)代價(jià)視角探討了腐敗的表現(xiàn)及特點(diǎn)，，對(duì)其形成的原因以及理論根源進(jìn)行介紹，在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)腐敗現(xiàn)象作出經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析。選擇腐敗感知指數(shù)、貪污瀆職人數(shù)/公職人員數(shù)、貪污瀆職案件/公職人員數(shù)指標(biāo)來描述腐敗蔓延程度，人均GDP及GDP不變價(jià)增長率指標(biāo)描述經(jīng)濟(jì)增長狀況。通過最優(yōu)參數(shù)支持向量回歸方法，構(gòu)造腐敗蔓延對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響關(guān)系模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：腐敗蔓延對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的抑制作用較為顯著。政治腐敗對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用大于社會(huì)腐敗整體水平；腐敗蔓延對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的負(fù)向作用具有非線性特征；腐敗發(fā)展速度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度早期呈負(fù)相關(guān)，且接近線性關(guān)系，但隨著腐敗的深入發(fā)展，其負(fù)效用開始呈現(xiàn)非線性特征，且邊際遞減。 再次，從社會(huì)代價(jià)視角探討了犯罪的表現(xiàn)及特點(diǎn)，給出了犯罪的成因理論，探討了犯罪對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的抑制或推動(dòng)作用。選擇人均公共安全支出、公安機(jī)關(guān)刑事案件立案數(shù)、每萬人中犯罪嫌犯人數(shù)描述犯罪狀況，人均GDP及GDP不變價(jià)增長率指標(biāo)描述經(jīng)濟(jì)增長狀況。通過本文提出的最優(yōu)參數(shù)支持向量回歸方法，構(gòu)造犯罪增長對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響關(guān)系模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：對(duì)中國當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)狀況而言，犯罪增長不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。犯罪對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的負(fù)作用表現(xiàn)出非線性特點(diǎn)；加大人均公共安全支出有利于削弱犯罪對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的不良影響；犯罪狀況起伏越大，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響越大，且具有乘數(shù)效應(yīng)。 最后，綜合測(cè)算貧富分化、腐敗蔓延、犯罪增長三類因素對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的共同作用。通過最優(yōu)參數(shù)支持向量回歸方法，構(gòu)造社會(huì)代價(jià)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長共同影響關(guān)系模型。認(rèn)為貧富分化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有階段性特點(diǎn)，適度的放寬對(duì)貧富分化問題的約束，將有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；腐敗及犯罪則對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)具有明顯的抑制作用，一旦放任腐敗和犯罪繼續(xù)發(fā)展，將產(chǎn)生更為嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面效果。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has experienced more than 30 years of rapid growth, which has been called "the miracle of China's growth" by the international community. At the same time, some unharmonious social phenomena which conflict with rapid economic growth have also come into being, such as social security, labor employment, income gap, corruption, public order, and so on. This paper considers the social problems associated with the economic growth process as a social price, and describes the negative effects of economic growth as an important indicator of the quality of economic growth, based on the economic growth of China and based on the least square support vector machine method, from the quantitative The angle estimates the impact of social costs on economic growth.
First, from the perspective of social cost, this paper discusses the manifestations and characteristics of the polarization of the rich and the poor, the causes of the formation and the methods and indicators of measurement. On this basis, we make an economic analysis of the phenomenon of the polarization between the rich and the poor. The difference between the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents, the Gini coefficient, the income of urban residents and the net income of rural residents are described to describe the rich and poor. The degree of economic growth is described by the per capita GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the increase of income gap in the early stage of the rich and poor differentiation, the stimulating effect of the income gap, the promotion of economic growth, the differentiation of the rich and the poor. In the medium term, the incentive and the inhibition coexist; the polarization of the rich and the poor developed to a certain extent, and the incentive effect was inhibited; the instability of the rich and the poor had a negative effect on the economy.
Secondly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of corruption from the perspective of social cost, introduces the causes of its formation and the theoretical root, and makes economic analysis on the corruption phenomenon based on this, and selects the Corruption Perception Index, the number of corruption malfeasance / public service, the corruption and malfeasance cases / the number of public officials to describe the spread of corruption. The economic growth condition is described by both GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method, the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is more significant. The effect of political corruption on economic growth is greater than the overall level of social corruption. The negative effect of corruption spread on economic growth has nonlinear characteristics; the speed of corruption development is negatively related to the speed of economic growth, and is close to linear relationship. But with the deepening of corruption, its negative effect begins to show nonlinear characteristics and the marginal decline.
Thirdly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of the crime from the perspective of social cost, gives the theory of the cause of the crime, and probes into the inhibition or promoting effect of crime on economic growth. It chooses public safety expenditure per capita, the number of criminal cases in public security organs, the number of criminal suspects in every 10000 people, and the rate of GDP and GDP per capita. The index describes the economic growth situation. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of the growth of crime to economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the growth of crime is not conducive to economic growth for the current economic and social conditions in China. Large per capita public safety expenditure can help to weaken the adverse effects of crime on economic growth; the greater the fluctuation of the crime situation, the greater the impact on the economy, and the multiplier effect.
Finally, a comprehensive measurement of the common effects of three factors, such as the polarization of the rich and the poor, the spread of corruption and the growth of the crime, on the economic growth by the optimal parameter support vector regression method, is used to construct the relationship model of the social cost to the economic growth. The author thinks that the differentiation of the rich and the poor has the stage characteristics of economic growth and the moderate relaxation of the problem of the polarization of the rich and the poor. It will be beneficial to economic growth; corruption and crime have an obvious inhibitory effect on the economy. Once corruption and crime continue to develop, more serious negative effects will be produced.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F224
本文編號(hào)：2168136
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has experienced more than 30 years of rapid growth, which has been called "the miracle of China's growth" by the international community. At the same time, some unharmonious social phenomena which conflict with rapid economic growth have also come into being, such as social security, labor employment, income gap, corruption, public order, and so on. This paper considers the social problems associated with the economic growth process as a social price, and describes the negative effects of economic growth as an important indicator of the quality of economic growth, based on the economic growth of China and based on the least square support vector machine method, from the quantitative The angle estimates the impact of social costs on economic growth.
First, from the perspective of social cost, this paper discusses the manifestations and characteristics of the polarization of the rich and the poor, the causes of the formation and the methods and indicators of measurement. On this basis, we make an economic analysis of the phenomenon of the polarization between the rich and the poor. The difference between the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents, the Gini coefficient, the income of urban residents and the net income of rural residents are described to describe the rich and poor. The degree of economic growth is described by the per capita GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the increase of income gap in the early stage of the rich and poor differentiation, the stimulating effect of the income gap, the promotion of economic growth, the differentiation of the rich and the poor. In the medium term, the incentive and the inhibition coexist; the polarization of the rich and the poor developed to a certain extent, and the incentive effect was inhibited; the instability of the rich and the poor had a negative effect on the economy.
Secondly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of corruption from the perspective of social cost, introduces the causes of its formation and the theoretical root, and makes economic analysis on the corruption phenomenon based on this, and selects the Corruption Perception Index, the number of corruption malfeasance / public service, the corruption and malfeasance cases / the number of public officials to describe the spread of corruption. The economic growth condition is described by both GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method, the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is more significant. The effect of political corruption on economic growth is greater than the overall level of social corruption. The negative effect of corruption spread on economic growth has nonlinear characteristics; the speed of corruption development is negatively related to the speed of economic growth, and is close to linear relationship. But with the deepening of corruption, its negative effect begins to show nonlinear characteristics and the marginal decline.
Thirdly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of the crime from the perspective of social cost, gives the theory of the cause of the crime, and probes into the inhibition or promoting effect of crime on economic growth. It chooses public safety expenditure per capita, the number of criminal cases in public security organs, the number of criminal suspects in every 10000 people, and the rate of GDP and GDP per capita. The index describes the economic growth situation. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of the growth of crime to economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the growth of crime is not conducive to economic growth for the current economic and social conditions in China. Large per capita public safety expenditure can help to weaken the adverse effects of crime on economic growth; the greater the fluctuation of the crime situation, the greater the impact on the economy, and the multiplier effect.
Finally, a comprehensive measurement of the common effects of three factors, such as the polarization of the rich and the poor, the spread of corruption and the growth of the crime, on the economic growth by the optimal parameter support vector regression method, is used to construct the relationship model of the social cost to the economic growth. The author thinks that the differentiation of the rich and the poor has the stage characteristics of economic growth and the moderate relaxation of the problem of the polarization of the rich and the poor. It will be beneficial to economic growth; corruption and crime have an obvious inhibitory effect on the economy. Once corruption and crime continue to develop, more serious negative effects will be produced.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F224
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