【摘要】：隨著人口的不斷增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅猛發(fā)展，生育率和死亡率的降低也直接加快了人口老齡化的進(jìn)程，，人口老齡化將是人類社會不可逾越的一個階段。目前人口老齡化已經(jīng)成為了一個世界性的話題，我國作為發(fā)展中國家的典型代表，老年人口高齡化程度不斷加深而且“未富先老”現(xiàn)象尤為明顯。我國在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展尚不全面時進(jìn)入到了人口老齡化這一階段，對于我國的未來發(fā)展也是一個重大的挑戰(zhàn)。 遼寧省作為我國較早進(jìn)入人口老齡化省份的典型代表，人口老齡化程度日趨加劇。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，遼寧省人口老齡化具有增長速度快、高齡化、“空巢現(xiàn)象”日趨嚴(yán)重等特點(diǎn)。隨著遼寧省人口出生率的不斷下降，老年人口比重呈現(xiàn)不斷上升趨勢，必將對遼寧省整體的消費(fèi)水平產(chǎn)生影響。而老年人口的消費(fèi)需求、消費(fèi)能力和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與其他年齡階段的人口明顯存在很大差異，因此老年人口比重的增加會對遼寧省居民消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變產(chǎn)生重大影響。 本文第一部分首先全面介紹了遼寧省老年人口的基本情況，主要包括遼寧省人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀和基于這些現(xiàn)狀所表現(xiàn)出的特點(diǎn)；第二部分對遼寧省人口老齡化對消費(fèi)水平的影響進(jìn)行了實證分析，以遼寧省1990年—2011年的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，對遼寧省的GDP、消費(fèi)等變量以1990年為基期進(jìn)行處理，得出人口老齡化與遼寧省消費(fèi)水平之間的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；第三部分分別對遼寧省2005年到2011年間城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化情況進(jìn)行了介紹，又分析了老年人口消費(fèi)需求的變化情況，老年人口在醫(yī)療保健、精神文化、社會服務(wù)和衣著服飾等方面的需求不斷增加。之后運(yùn)用了灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法對遼寧省老年人口比重對消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響進(jìn)行實證分析，從而得出老年人口在家庭設(shè)備用品及服務(wù)、居住和教育文化娛樂服務(wù)需求方面的消費(fèi)支出增長速度較快，而在衣著服飾和醫(yī)療保健服務(wù)需求方面的消費(fèi)支出減少；本文的最后一部分主要對前文進(jìn)行概括總結(jié)，提出了優(yōu)化遼寧省老年人口消費(fèi)水平及消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的對策：首先要想促進(jìn)老年人口進(jìn)行消費(fèi)，必須要提高老年人口的收入水平，這才能夠更好的提高遼寧省老年人口的生活質(zhì)量；其次要適當(dāng)放寬生育政策，進(jìn)而改善遼寧省的老年人口撫養(yǎng)比，緩解人口金字塔底部收縮的壓力；第三，加快完善醫(yī)療體制改革，進(jìn)而保障更多的高齡和失能老人晚年生活的質(zhì)量；最后要加強(qiáng)養(yǎng)老服務(wù)業(yè)，老年人口身體狀況隨著年齡增長會不斷下降，社會和家庭要承擔(dān)起照顧老人的責(zé)任，加快發(fā)展養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)，讓老年人生活更加舒適安心。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of population and the rapid development of economy, the decline of fertility and mortality directly speeds up the process of population aging. Population aging will be an insurmountable stage of human society. At present, the aging of population has become a worldwide topic. As a typical representative of developing countries, the aging of the elderly population is deepening and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" is particularly obvious. China has entered the stage of population aging at the time of incomplete economic development, which is also a major challenge to the future development of our country. Liaoning Province, as a typical representative of China's early entry into the province of population aging, the degree of population aging is becoming more and more serious. It is found that the aging population in Liaoning Province has the characteristics of rapid growth, aging, and "empty nest phenomenon". With the decline of the birth rate in Liaoning Province, the proportion of the elderly population is increasing, which will affect the consumption level of Liaoning Province as a whole. However, the consumption demand, consumption ability and consumption structure of the elderly population are obviously different from those of other age groups, so the increase of the proportion of the elderly population will have a great impact on the change of consumption level and consumption structure in Liaoning Province. The first part of this paper introduces the basic situation of Liaoning Province's elderly population, mainly including the current situation of Liaoning Province's aging population and the characteristics based on the present situation. The second part has carried on the empirical analysis to the Liaoning Province population aging to the consumption level influence, based on the Liaoning Province 1990-2011 data, carries on the processing to the Liaoning Province's GDP, the consumption and so on variables with 1990 as the base period. The third part introduces the changes of consumption structure of urban residents and rural residents from 2005 to 2011 in Liaoning Province. The demand for medical care, spiritual culture, social service and clothing is increasing. Then, the paper analyzes the effect of the proportion of the elderly population on the consumption structure of Liaoning Province by using the grey correlation degree method, and draws the conclusion that the elderly population in the household equipment supplies and services. The demand for residential, educational, cultural and recreational services has increased rapidly, while the demand for clothing, clothing and health care services has decreased. This paper puts forward the countermeasures to optimize the consumption level and consumption structure of the elderly population in Liaoning Province: firstly, in order to promote the elderly population to consume, we must improve the income level of the elderly population in order to better improve the quality of life of the elderly population in Liaoning Province; Secondly, it is necessary to appropriately relax the fertility policy, thereby improving the dependency ratio of the elderly population in Liaoning Province, and alleviating the pressure of contraction at the bottom of the population pyramid; third, to speed up the reform of the medical care system. Thus ensuring the quality of life of more elderly and disabled elderly people in their later years; finally, strengthening the service industry for the aged, the physical condition of the elderly population will continue to decline with the increase of age, and society and families should assume the responsibility of taking care of the elderly. Speed up the development of pension industry, so that the elderly life more comfortable and secure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127

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