廣東省碳排放的影響因素分析及趨勢預測
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-20 19:43
【摘要】：全球環(huán)境問題日益尖銳，中國在能源和環(huán)境方面面臨著巨大的壓力。廣東省作為我國經(jīng)濟第一大省，GDP一直維持10%以上的增長率，高速經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的同時，帶來高污染、高排放、高能耗等嚴重環(huán)境問題，成為廣東省經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的制約性因素。廣東省目前正處于工業(yè)化高速發(fā)展階段，人均二氧化碳排放量已高于日本、美國等發(fā)達國家，開展碳減排工作，發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟成為當前緊急任務。因此，開展廣東省的能源消費和二氧化碳問題的研究、制定對應的政策措施具有非常重要的意義。 本研究首先測算了廣東省2000-2010年的CO2排放量、單位GDP二氧化碳排放量和單位能耗CO2排放量，在此基礎上對分能源、分行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放量進行了估算，結果表明廣東省能源消費的CO2排放總量和人均CO2排放量不斷上升，萬元GDP碳排放量呈下降趨勢，原煤的消費是碳排放的主要來源，工業(yè)碳排放是全省能源消費碳排放的主體，其中工業(yè)能源總消費量最大的門類是制造業(yè)。其次，本文運用對數(shù)平均迪式分解（LMDI）方法將廣東省人均二氧化碳排放變動分解為碳排放系數(shù)、能源消費強度、能源消費結構、人均GDP四大因素，建立廣東省人均碳排放的因素分解模型，衡量各因素對廣東人均碳排放的貢獻率；其中能源消耗強度作為影響碳排放量的最主要原因之一，，本文又進一步探討了三大產(chǎn)業(yè)能耗強度對總能耗強度的貢獻率，結果表明經(jīng)濟發(fā)展效應對廣東省能源消費碳排放的貢獻率最大，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)能耗強度是影響能源消費強度下降的最主要原因。最后，依據(jù)2000-2010年廣東省碳排放數(shù)據(jù)，通過灰色GM(1,l)模型，對廣東省碳排放進行了短期預測，如果廣東省不改變現(xiàn)今的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展政策、人口政策和能源等政策，那么廣東的碳排放量將處于逐年增長的趨勢，到2016年廣東省碳排放量將達到7.4559億噸，可見“十二五”期間二氧化碳減排形勢嚴峻。本文最后針對研究結果,為廣東省如何實現(xiàn)碳減排提出了具體的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Global environmental problems are becoming increasingly acute, China is facing tremendous pressure in energy and environment. Guangdong Province, as the largest province in China, has maintained a GDP growth rate of more than 10%. The rapid economic development has brought serious environmental problems, such as high pollution, high emission and high energy consumption, and has become a restrictive factor for the sustainable economic development of Guangdong Province. At present, Guangdong Province is in the stage of rapid development of industrialization, and its per capita carbon dioxide emissions are higher than those of developed countries such as Japan and the United States. Therefore, developing low-carbon economy has become an urgent task. Therefore, it is of great significance to study energy consumption and carbon dioxide in Guangdong Province and formulate corresponding policies and measures. In this study, the CO2 emissions per unit GDP, CO2 emissions per unit GDP and CO2 emissions per unit energy consumption of Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2010 were measured. The results show that the total CO2 emission and per capita CO2 emission of energy consumption in Guangdong Province are increasing, the carbon emission of ten thousand yuan GDP is decreasing, the consumption of raw coal is the main source of carbon emission, and the industrial carbon emission is the main part of energy consumption carbon emission in Guangdong Province. The largest category of total industrial energy consumption is manufacturing. Secondly, this paper uses the logarithmic average di decomposition (LMDI) method to decompose the change of per capita carbon dioxide emissions into four factors: carbon emission coefficient, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure and GDP per capita. The factor decomposition model of per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong Province is established to measure the contribution of each factor to the per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, in which the intensity of energy consumption is one of the most important factors affecting carbon emissions. The contribution rate of energy consumption intensity of three industries to total energy consumption intensity is further discussed in this paper. The results show that economic development effect has the largest contribution to energy consumption carbon emissions in Guangdong Province. The energy consumption intensity of the secondary industry is the main reason for the decrease of the energy consumption intensity. Finally, based on the data of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2010, the paper makes a short-term prediction of the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province through the Grey GM (1L) model. If Guangdong does not change its current economic development policies, population policies and energy policies, etc. So, Guangdong's carbon emissions will be increasing year by year. By 2016, Guangdong's carbon emissions will reach 745.59 million tons, which shows that the situation of carbon dioxide reduction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is grim. In the end, the paper puts forward some specific policy suggestions on how to achieve carbon emission reduction in Guangdong Province.
【學位授予單位】：暨南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F205;F127
本文編號：2134571
[Abstract]:Global environmental problems are becoming increasingly acute, China is facing tremendous pressure in energy and environment. Guangdong Province, as the largest province in China, has maintained a GDP growth rate of more than 10%. The rapid economic development has brought serious environmental problems, such as high pollution, high emission and high energy consumption, and has become a restrictive factor for the sustainable economic development of Guangdong Province. At present, Guangdong Province is in the stage of rapid development of industrialization, and its per capita carbon dioxide emissions are higher than those of developed countries such as Japan and the United States. Therefore, developing low-carbon economy has become an urgent task. Therefore, it is of great significance to study energy consumption and carbon dioxide in Guangdong Province and formulate corresponding policies and measures. In this study, the CO2 emissions per unit GDP, CO2 emissions per unit GDP and CO2 emissions per unit energy consumption of Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2010 were measured. The results show that the total CO2 emission and per capita CO2 emission of energy consumption in Guangdong Province are increasing, the carbon emission of ten thousand yuan GDP is decreasing, the consumption of raw coal is the main source of carbon emission, and the industrial carbon emission is the main part of energy consumption carbon emission in Guangdong Province. The largest category of total industrial energy consumption is manufacturing. Secondly, this paper uses the logarithmic average di decomposition (LMDI) method to decompose the change of per capita carbon dioxide emissions into four factors: carbon emission coefficient, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure and GDP per capita. The factor decomposition model of per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong Province is established to measure the contribution of each factor to the per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, in which the intensity of energy consumption is one of the most important factors affecting carbon emissions. The contribution rate of energy consumption intensity of three industries to total energy consumption intensity is further discussed in this paper. The results show that economic development effect has the largest contribution to energy consumption carbon emissions in Guangdong Province. The energy consumption intensity of the secondary industry is the main reason for the decrease of the energy consumption intensity. Finally, based on the data of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2010, the paper makes a short-term prediction of the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province through the Grey GM (1L) model. If Guangdong does not change its current economic development policies, population policies and energy policies, etc. So, Guangdong's carbon emissions will be increasing year by year. By 2016, Guangdong's carbon emissions will reach 745.59 million tons, which shows that the situation of carbon dioxide reduction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is grim. In the end, the paper puts forward some specific policy suggestions on how to achieve carbon emission reduction in Guangdong Province.
【學位授予單位】：暨南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F205;F127
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