本文選題：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) + 消費(fèi)水平��； 參考：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)取得了世界矚目的高增長,2010年,中國的GDP趕超日本,成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,但是在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量和人民生活水平方面,中國與發(fā)達(dá)國家還有較大的差距。中國正面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長存在著明顯的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾,其中的突出問題就是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長主要依靠投資和出口來拉動(dòng),居民消費(fèi)需求持續(xù)低迷,這已經(jīng)成為困擾中國經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的難題之一。隨著2008年全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā),中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展承受著巨大的外部壓力,這迫使中國必須扭轉(zhuǎn)過度依賴投資和出口的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式,充分發(fā)揮內(nèi)需對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)作用。為此,黨的十八大進(jìn)一步明確提出:“加快形成新的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式,把推動(dòng)發(fā)展的立足點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)到提高質(zhì)量和效益上來,其中一個(gè)重要的發(fā)展方式就是使經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展更多地依靠內(nèi)需特別是消費(fèi)需求來拉動(dòng)”。中國實(shí)現(xiàn)了30多年的高速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,其人口結(jié)構(gòu)也迅速發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變,表現(xiàn)為生育率持續(xù)下降,勞動(dòng)年齡人口增長停滯并轉(zhuǎn)向負(fù)增長,人口老齡化發(fā)展迅速。2013年我國15—59歲勞動(dòng)年齡人口為91954萬人,比上年減少1773萬人,15—59歲勞動(dòng)年齡人口的絕對數(shù)量已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩年出現(xiàn)下降,從2011年起,我國15—64歲勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重則開始下降,2013年我國15—64歲勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重下降為72.8%,而65歲及以上人口比重則上升到9.7%。由于原始的人口基數(shù)龐大、人口轉(zhuǎn)變在短時(shí)間內(nèi)完成,因此我國不僅是世界上人口最多的國家,并且將加入老齡人口最多,人口老齡化速度最快的國家行列,這種人口狀況將持續(xù)很長的一段時(shí)間。中國人口數(shù)量和人口結(jié)構(gòu)的演變是否是影響居民消費(fèi)的重要因素?如何在確保不犧牲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同時(shí),實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)主要由出口和投資拉動(dòng)向更多的依靠國內(nèi)需求拉動(dòng)?如何結(jié)合顯著的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化來擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需,刺激居民消費(fèi)?中國未來所要面臨的這些挑戰(zhàn),對于改善居民福利和實(shí)施政府宏觀調(diào)控都具有重要的影響。中國特殊的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀凸顯人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費(fèi)的影響研究更加具有必要性。事實(shí)上,不同年齡階段的人口,其消費(fèi)能力、消費(fèi)傾向、消費(fèi)心理、消費(fèi)習(xí)慣等存在顯著差異,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量的變動(dòng)經(jīng)過各種途徑,最終將影響傳導(dǎo)到消費(fèi)需求上來。人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)帶來的沖擊是錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的,既作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,也影響到社會(huì)領(lǐng)域;在宏觀層面上,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)會(huì)對消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等產(chǎn)生影響,在微觀層面上,會(huì)對家庭結(jié)構(gòu)改變、養(yǎng)育子女、贍養(yǎng)老人等產(chǎn)生影響。遺憾的是,關(guān)于人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)關(guān)系的全面系統(tǒng)研究,在國內(nèi)仍比較缺乏和薄弱。深入探討人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)造成的多種消費(fèi)效應(yīng),對于順利實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式從投資驅(qū)動(dòng)型和出口驅(qū)動(dòng)型向消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)型轉(zhuǎn)變,對于保持我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展、改善民生福祉具有重要政策含義。論文著力探討人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)及其對居民消費(fèi)的影響。內(nèi)容主要圍繞以下三個(gè)方面展開:第一,從生育率變動(dòng)、勞動(dòng)年齡人口變動(dòng)以及老齡化等三個(gè)角度構(gòu)建人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對居民消費(fèi)的作用機(jī)制。第二,建立人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與居民消費(fèi)的宏觀與微觀分析框架,一方面從微觀視角構(gòu)建微觀調(diào)查的偽面板數(shù)據(jù),分析人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費(fèi)水平、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)差距的影響;另一方面從宏觀視角構(gòu)建省際面板數(shù)據(jù),利用面板分位數(shù)回歸模型、空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型考察人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)差距的影響。第三,提出人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)背景下促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)的對策建議,主要圍繞“人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢的延長與利用戰(zhàn)略”和“人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢消逝下的替代和轉(zhuǎn)換戰(zhàn)略”兩大部分展開。本論文總共包括7章。第1章是導(dǎo)論。這一章闡述論文的選題背景和研究意義,提出研究思路,介紹研究內(nèi)容和研究框架,以及總結(jié)論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足之處,并指出未來進(jìn)一步研究的方向。第2章是理論基礎(chǔ)與文獻(xiàn)綜述。首先是經(jīng)典相關(guān)理論的回顧,主要對人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論、生命周期理論、家庭儲(chǔ)蓄需求模型、世代交疊模型等經(jīng)典理論進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)回顧;其次是分析了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響居民消費(fèi)的作用機(jī)制,主要從三個(gè)方面展開:生育率變動(dòng)的影響、勞動(dòng)年齡人口變動(dòng)的影響和人口老齡化的影響;最后對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究進(jìn)行了綜述,分別從宏觀視角與微觀視角;年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與消費(fèi)需求、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)差距等方面展開,并對國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了評介,為后文的深入分析提供基礎(chǔ)和支撐。第3章是我國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與居民消費(fèi)的變動(dòng)歷程與現(xiàn)狀分析。主要從我國人口發(fā)展歷程、人口轉(zhuǎn)型特征等方面對我國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的總體現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析和介紹;并圍繞著居民的消費(fèi)需求、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和消費(fèi)差距等幾個(gè)主題對我國城鄉(xiāng)居民的消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述。得出的主要結(jié)論有:(1)我國的人口轉(zhuǎn)型在計(jì)劃生育政策的影響下在非常短的時(shí)間內(nèi)迅速完成,人口發(fā)展已經(jīng)進(jìn)入到低出生率、低死亡率、低自然增長率的平穩(wěn)低增長階段;我國的生育率逐年穩(wěn)步降低,并于2000年進(jìn)入了老齡化社會(huì);我國的老齡化具有規(guī)模大、發(fā)展迅速,地區(qū)差異明顯和未富先老等特點(diǎn)。(2)我國居民消費(fèi)水平不高,居民消費(fèi)增速慢于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度,消費(fèi)傾向有下降趨勢,消費(fèi)需求乏力;改革開放以來居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)實(shí)現(xiàn)了優(yōu)化升級,但在消費(fèi)品供給結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)環(huán)境和消費(fèi)政策方面還存在很多不足;城鎮(zhèn)居民內(nèi)部、農(nóng)村居民內(nèi)部以及城鄉(xiāng)居民之間存在著較大的消費(fèi)差距。第4章是人口年齡分布與居民消費(fèi)支出。首先介紹組群分析方法并進(jìn)行了理論推導(dǎo),然后構(gòu)造出偽面板數(shù)據(jù)(pseudopaneldata),基于中國社會(huì)狀況綜合調(diào)查(css)2006、2008和2011年的數(shù)據(jù),分別將城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)支出分解為年齡效應(yīng)和出生組效應(yīng),考察年齡變動(dòng)和出生年代差異對居民消費(fèi)的影響,最后引入養(yǎng)老保障因素,討論了不同養(yǎng)老保障水平下居民消費(fèi)水平的年齡效應(yīng)是否存在差異。得到的基本結(jié)論有:(1)消費(fèi)支出的年齡效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)出明顯的“駝峰特征”,并且駝峰大概出現(xiàn)于45—50歲之間,這表明我國居民消費(fèi)支出并不符合傳統(tǒng)的生命周期理論,原因在于中國居民的消費(fèi)還保持著自己特有的規(guī)律和特征,由于傳統(tǒng)文化及現(xiàn)實(shí)國情的影響,中國居民在其生命的不同年齡階段有特定的剛需,因此難以在生命周期中平滑其一生的消費(fèi)。(2)居民消費(fèi)支出的出生組效應(yīng)并不十分顯著,出生于1957—1965年間的群體消費(fèi)水平最低;(3)養(yǎng)老保障因素對年齡效應(yīng)有明顯的影響,但在城鄉(xiāng)之間有顯著差異,養(yǎng)老保障對城鎮(zhèn)居民主要產(chǎn)生的是“資產(chǎn)替代效應(yīng)”,而對農(nóng)村居民還產(chǎn)生了“引致退休效應(yīng)”;(4)其他因素,如收入水平、財(cái)富水平和教育水平的提高有利于消費(fèi)水平的提升。第5章是人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)。首先構(gòu)建一個(gè)關(guān)于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的理論框架,從理論上探尋人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響作用,并對分位數(shù)回歸分析方法進(jìn)行介紹;接著使用css調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),從微觀層面估計(jì)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的年齡效應(yīng)以及考察家庭內(nèi)部人口結(jié)構(gòu)對消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響;最后基于宏觀視角,將少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比兩個(gè)變量引入模型,分城鄉(xiāng)研究年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變化對居民家庭消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。微觀層面估計(jì)結(jié)果顯示:居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的年齡效應(yīng)較為顯著,且城鄉(xiāng)居民表現(xiàn)出較為一致的趨勢,總體而言少兒人口比重對居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響作用較為微弱;老年人口比重對消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響則較為復(fù)雜,城鄉(xiāng)表現(xiàn)并不完全一致。宏觀層面的估計(jì)結(jié)果顯示:在城鎮(zhèn)樣本中,少兒撫養(yǎng)比的上升提高了生存型消費(fèi)支出的比重,老年撫養(yǎng)比上升僅對收入水平較高家庭的生存型消費(fèi)比重產(chǎn)生正影響,越富裕的家庭,子女?dāng)?shù)量變動(dòng)對發(fā)展型消費(fèi)比重的影響越小,養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)的加重使得較貧窮的家庭降低了發(fā)展型消費(fèi)的比重;在農(nóng)村樣本中,家庭收入水平越低,老年撫養(yǎng)比對生存型消費(fèi)的負(fù)影響越顯著;老年撫養(yǎng)比上升通過作用于醫(yī)療保健支出而對享受型消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生正影響,對于越富裕的家庭,老年撫養(yǎng)比對享受型消費(fèi)的影響越弱。第6章是人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)差距。在構(gòu)建一個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)性的框架來進(jìn)行理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從微觀和宏觀層面分別考察人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對居民消費(fèi)差距的影響。在微觀層面上,一是對城鎮(zhèn)樣本和農(nóng)村樣本分別分解出消費(fèi)差距的年齡效應(yīng)和出生組效應(yīng);二是在改進(jìn)現(xiàn)有分解方法的基礎(chǔ)上,融入因素分析法的思想,把消費(fèi)差距變動(dòng)分解為老齡化效應(yīng)、出生組效應(yīng)和年齡組間效應(yīng),并進(jìn)一步比較了教育、養(yǎng)老保障等因素對消費(fèi)差距分解結(jié)果的影響。對消費(fèi)差距分解的結(jié)果顯示,城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)差距隨著年齡的增長而增大,出生年代越晚的群體,其消費(fèi)差距越大。在宏觀層面上,考慮到我國各個(gè)地區(qū)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況在空間上具有依賴性和相關(guān)性,選用空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。得出了與微觀層面一致的結(jié)論:人口老齡化擴(kuò)大了居民的消費(fèi)差距。研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)教育不平等也會(huì)導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)差距的擴(kuò)大,而養(yǎng)老保障的實(shí)現(xiàn),是縮小城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)差距的有效手段。第7章是結(jié)論與對策建議。在對全文的主要結(jié)論進(jìn)行總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合實(shí)證研究結(jié)論,圍繞“人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢的延長與利用戰(zhàn)略”和“人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢消逝下的替代和轉(zhuǎn)換戰(zhàn)略”兩大部分,就人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)背景下如何促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)、擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需提出對策建議。參考已有的研究成果,本文在以下幾個(gè)方面做出了創(chuàng)新:第一,本文以人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)為研究切入點(diǎn),基于消費(fèi)理論,以我國老齡化和消費(fèi)乏力為現(xiàn)實(shí)背景,從消費(fèi)水平、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)以及消費(fèi)差距等方面較為全面、系統(tǒng)地考察了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費(fèi)的影響,構(gòu)造了較為完整的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費(fèi)影響的分析框架,將統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)、人口社會(huì)學(xué)與消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)相關(guān)學(xué)科知識(shí)結(jié)合,對跨學(xué)科的交叉研究進(jìn)行了有益的嘗試。第二,使用宏觀面板數(shù)據(jù)與微觀調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合的手段,宏觀數(shù)據(jù)分析結(jié)果與微觀數(shù)據(jù)分析互相補(bǔ)充、相互驗(yàn)證,力求更加深入、全面和正確的考察人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對中國居民消費(fèi)的影響,避免了集中于對宏觀數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,而缺乏微觀數(shù)據(jù)分析的缺陷。第三,構(gòu)造出適用于微觀調(diào)查的偽面板數(shù)據(jù),并對使用到的組群分析方法進(jìn)行了理論推導(dǎo)、結(jié)合面板分位數(shù)回歸模型、空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型等進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,以提高估計(jì)結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性,并豐富了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費(fèi)影響的研究工具。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved high growth in the world's attention. In 2010, China's GDP overtook Japan and became the second largest economy in the world. However, there is a big gap between China and the developed countries in the quality of economic development and the living standard of the people. China is facing a critical period of economic transformation, and the economic growth is obvious. The outstanding problem is that the economic growth is mainly driven by investment and export, and the consumer demand continues to be depressed. This has become one of the difficult problems that plagued the sustainable development of China's economy. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China's economic development bears enormous external pressure, which compels China to do so. It is necessary to reverse the economic growth model of excessive dependence on investment and export and make full use of the stimulating effect of domestic demand on economic growth. To this end, the eighteen Party of the party further clarified that "to speed up the formation of new economic development mode and to move the foothold of development to the improvement of quality and efficiency, one of the most important ways of development is to make it possible." Economic development depends more on domestic demand, especially consumption demand. China has achieved rapid economic growth for more than 30 years. Its population structure has also changed rapidly. The growth rate of the population is declining, the growth of the working age population is stagnating and turning to negative growth. The population aging is developing rapidly in.2013 years, and the population of 15 to 59 years of age of our country is 9. 19 million 540 thousand people, a decrease of 17 million 730 thousand people over the previous year, the absolute number of working age population of 15 to 59 years old has been declining for two consecutive years. From 2011, the proportion of labor age population in our country from 15 to 64 years began to decline. In 2013, the proportion of the labor age population of 15 to 64 years in China declined to 72.8%, while the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above rose to 9.7%. due to the original. The population of China is not only the most populous country in the world, but also the country with the largest population and the fastest aging population in the world. This population will continue for a long period of time. How is the important factor for the consumption of the people? How to ensure that the economy is driven more by export and investment to more domestic demand while ensuring that economic growth is not sacrificed? How to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption in combination with significant demographic changes? The challenges facing China in the future are to improve the welfare and implementation of the residents. The macro regulation and control of the government have an important influence. China's special population age structure and consumption status highlight the necessity of the study on the influence of population age structure on the consumption of residents. In fact, there are significant differences in consumption, consumption, consumption psychology and consumption habits between people of different ages, and the age structure of population. Changes in variables pass through various channels and ultimately affect consumption demand. The impact of changes in population age structure is intricate, both in the economic field and in the social field; at the macro level, the changes in population age structure will affect consumption, savings, economic growth and so on, at the micro level. It is regrettable that a comprehensive and systematic study of the changes in the age structure of the population and the relationship between the residents' consumption is still relatively short and weak in China. It is a deep study of the various consumption effects caused by the changes in the age structure of the population, which is driven by investment in the smooth realization of the economic growth mode. The transformation of type and export driven type to consumer driven type has important policy implications for maintaining the sustained, healthy and stable development of our economy and improving the well-being of people's livelihood. The paper focuses on the changes in population age structure and its impact on Residents' consumption. The content is mainly focused on the following three aspects: first, from the change of fertility and the labor age population Three angles, such as change and aging, to construct the mechanism of population age structure changes to the consumption of residents. Second, establish the macro and micro analysis framework of population age structure and consumption, on the one hand, construct pseudo panel data from micro perspective, and analyze the consumption level, consumption structure and elimination of population age structure. On the other hand, we build the inter provincial panel data from the macro perspective, use the panel quantile regression model and the spatial panel data model to investigate the influence of the population age structure change on the consumption structure and the consumption gap. Third, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the consumption of the population under the background of the population age structure change. The extension and utilization strategy of population age structure and the strategy of substitution and conversion of population age structure advantage are two parts. This paper includes 7 chapters. The first chapter is introduction. This chapter expounds the background and significance of the topic, puts forward the research ideas, introduces the content and framework of the research, and summarizes the summary theory. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. The first is the review of the classical related theories, which mainly reviewed the classical theory of population transformation theory, life cycle theory, family savings demand model, generation overlapping model and so on. Secondly, it analyzed the population. The effect mechanism of age structure on consumption is mainly from three aspects: the influence of the change of fertility rate, the influence of the change of the labor age population and the influence of the aging of the population; finally, it summarizes the relevant experience at home and abroad, from the macroscopic angle of view and the microscopic angle of view, the age structure and the consumption demand, the consumption structure and the consumption difference. The third chapter is the analysis of the changes and status of the population age structure and consumption in our country, mainly from the history of population development, the characteristics of population transformation and other aspects of the overall status and development of the population age structure of our country. The trend is analyzed and introduced in detail, and the consumption demand, consumption structure and consumption gap of the residents are described in detail. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the population transformation of our country is completed rapidly in a very short time under the influence of family planning policy, and the population development has already been developed. Into the low birth rate, low mortality, low natural growth rate of stable low growth stage; China's fertility rate has steadily decreased year by year, and entered the aging society in 2000; China's aging has large scale, rapid development, obvious regional differences and not rich first point. (2) the consumption level of residents in China is not high, and the growth of residents is slow. At the rate of economic growth, the tendency of consumption has a downward trend and the consumption demand is weak. Since the reform and opening up, the consumption structure has been optimized and upgraded, but there are still many shortcomings in the structure of consumer goods supply, the consumption environment and the consumption policy, and there is a large consumption difference between the urban residents, the rural residents and the urban and rural residents. The fourth chapter is the population age distribution and the consumption expenditure. First, the group analysis method is introduced and the theoretical deduction is carried out. Then the pseudo panel data (pseudopaneldata) is constructed. Based on the data of the Chinese social situation comprehensive survey (CSS) in the 20062008 and 2011, the consumption expenditure of urban residents and rural residents is decomposed into age effect respectively. The effect of age variation and birth age difference on Residents' consumption was investigated and the age effect of the residents' consumption level under different old-age security levels was discussed. The basic conclusions were as follows: (1) the age effect of consumption expenditure showed obvious "Hump characteristics". And the hump is probably between 45 and 50 years old, which shows that the consumption expenditure in China does not conform to the traditional life cycle theory. The reason is that the consumption of Chinese residents still maintains its own characteristics and characteristics. Because of the influence of traditional culture and actual conditions, Chinese residents have specific rigid needs at different age stages of their lives, Therefore, it is difficult to smooth the consumption of its life in the life cycle. (2) the effect of the birth group on the consumption expenditure is not very significant, and the group consumption level is the lowest during the period of 1957 to 1965. (3) the pension security factors have a significant influence on the age effect, but there are significant differences between the urban and rural areas, and the old-age security is mainly produced by the urban residents. It is "asset substitution effect", and there is a "retirement effect" for rural residents; (4) other factors, such as income level, wealth level and education level, are beneficial to the improvement of consumption level. The fifth chapter is the change of population age structure and the consumption structure of residents. The effect of population age structure on consumption structure is explored, and the method of quantile regression analysis is introduced. Then, CSS survey data are used to estimate the age effect of the consumption structure and the influence of the family structure on the consumption structure from the micro level. Finally, the children's dependency ratio and the old age are based on the macro perspective. Two variables are introduced into the model to analyze the influence of age structure changes on household consumption structure in urban and rural areas. The results of the micro level estimate show that the age effect of residents' consumption structure is more significant, and the urban and rural residents have a more consistent trend. In general, the impact of the proportion of minority population on the consumption structure of residents is more than that of urban and rural residents. The impact of the proportion of the elderly population on the consumption structure is more complex and the performance of the urban and rural areas is not completely consistent. The macro level results show that the increase of the child dependency ratio in the urban sample increases the proportion of the living expenditure, and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio only produces the living consumption proportion of the higher income families. The more affluent families, the less the influence of the number of children on the proportion of the development type consumption, the aggravation of the pension burden makes the poorer families reduce the proportion of the development type consumption; in the rural sample, the lower the family income level, the more significant the negative influence of the old upbringing to the survival type, and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio. It has a positive impact on the enjoyment type consumption in the health care expenditure. For the richer families, the older the elderly support is weaker than the enjoyment type consumption. The sixth chapter is the population age structure change and the resident consumption gap. On the basis of the theoretical analysis of a statistical framework, we examine the population from the micro and macro level. The influence of age structure changes on the consumption gap of residents. At the micro level, one is the age effect and birth group effect of the urban sample and the rural sample, respectively. Two, on the basis of improving the existing decomposition methods, integrating the thought of factor analysis, breaking the change of the consumption gap into the aging effect, the birth group. Effect and age group effect, and further compare the influence of education, old-age security and other factors on the result of consumption gap decomposition. The result of the consumption gap decomposition shows that the urban residents' consumption gap increases with the age, the more late the population, the greater the consumption gap. At the macro level, considering the various areas of our country The social and economic status of the district is dependent and relevant in space, and the spatial panel data model is used to carry out an empirical analysis. The conclusion is consistent with the micro level: the aging of the population expands the consumption gap of the residents. The study also finds that the inequality of education will also lead to the expansion of the consumption gap, and the realization of the old-age security is shrinking. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and countermeasures. On the basis of the summary of the main conclusions of the full text, combined with the conclusions of the empirical research, two parts of the "population age structure superiority extension and utilization strategy" and "the substitution and conversion strategy under the population age structure superiority" Suggestions on how to promote household consumption and expand domestic demand under the background of age structure change are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1
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本文編號(hào)：2100238