本文選題：消費(fèi)需求 + 收入分配差距�。� 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費(fèi)作為拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)的“三駕馬車”之一,其重要地位卻在我國被長期忽視。2007年的全球金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致外需下降、出口受阻,且長期高投資引致的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失調(diào)弊端顯現(xiàn),阻滯了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,使得人們重新認(rèn)識到消費(fèi)的重要性。自改革開放以來,伴隨著居民消費(fèi)下降的另一個現(xiàn)象就是收入分配差距的逐步擴(kuò)大。一些學(xué)者開始關(guān)注這兩者之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系。本文從收入分配差距擴(kuò)大的角度,分析了我國居民消費(fèi)率呈長期下降的趨勢的原因,并對調(diào)節(jié)收入分配差距,拉動國內(nèi)消費(fèi)提出一些可行性建議,對于我國培育新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn),實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以收入分配差距擴(kuò)大對社會總消費(fèi)的影響為研究對象,從不同收入階層的儲蓄動機(jī)入手,分析了收入分配差距擴(kuò)大對社會總消費(fèi)的影響機(jī)制。由于不同收入階層群體面臨的內(nèi)在預(yù)期和外部約束條件不同,其儲蓄傾向和消費(fèi)行為也不同。本文在效用最大化假設(shè)下,將個體的儲蓄動機(jī)細(xì)化為生命周期儲蓄動機(jī)、預(yù)防性儲蓄動機(jī)、流動性約束儲蓄動機(jī)和遺贈儲蓄動機(jī),并從分析收入與各項儲蓄動機(jī)傾向的關(guān)系入手,得出一個人的總儲蓄傾向大小與收入呈“U”形關(guān)系的結(jié)論。由此推出：一個社會的收入分配差距越小,中等收入階層人數(shù)占比越大,社會總消費(fèi)傾向越高。 本文運(yùn)用實(shí)證分析方法,檢驗(yàn)基尼系數(shù)與居民消費(fèi)率的長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,并分別對我國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)傾向的影響因素進(jìn)行回歸分析。實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)基尼系數(shù)與我國居民消費(fèi)率之間呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,長期的收入分配不公必將導(dǎo)致社會的總消費(fèi)下降,要想拉動內(nèi)需,必須進(jìn)行收入分配改革,培育中等收入階層；(2)在影響居民消費(fèi)傾向的因素中,居民收入增長的波動是最重要的影響因素,居民預(yù)期未來收入風(fēng)險越大,其預(yù)防性儲蓄越多,消費(fèi)越少。要擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需,必須采取宏觀調(diào)控措施來減少人們的不確定性預(yù)期；(3)由于我國消費(fèi)信貸市場還不發(fā)達(dá),信貸因素對居民消費(fèi)的影響甚微,但金融體系在改善收入分配和促進(jìn)消費(fèi)中的作用不可忽視。而這種作用的發(fā)揮需要政府宏觀政策的引導(dǎo)。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于,在袁志剛,朱國林(2002)的收入與儲蓄傾向模型上進(jìn)行完善和修正,區(qū)分了由于預(yù)期到意外支出條件下無法通過借貸來彌補(bǔ)財政缺口而進(jìn)行的提前儲蓄和為完成計劃內(nèi)消費(fèi)安排而進(jìn)行的儲蓄。在原模型的基礎(chǔ)上,加入了流動性約束儲蓄傾向,并分析了消費(fèi)信貸和金融發(fā)展對促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)和改善收入分配的影響。
[Abstract]:As one of the "troika" to stimulate the economy, the important position of consumption has been neglected for a long time in our country. The global financial crisis in 2007 led to the decline of external demand, the obstruction of exports, and the maladjustment of economic structure caused by long-term high investment. Block the growth of our country economy, make people realize the importance of consumption again. Since the reform and opening up, with the decline of household consumption, the income distribution gap is gradually widening. Some scholars have begun to pay attention to the internal relationship between the two. From the angle of widening income distribution gap, this paper analyzes the reasons why the consumption rate of Chinese residents is decreasing for a long time, and puts forward some feasible suggestions to adjust the income distribution gap and stimulate domestic consumption. It is of great practical significance for China to cultivate new economic growth points and realize sustainable economic development. This paper focuses on the influence of the widening of income distribution gap on the total social consumption and analyzes the influence mechanism of the widening income distribution gap on the total social consumption from the perspective of the savings motivation of different income groups. Because different income groups are faced with different internal expectations and external constraints, their savings tendency and consumption behavior are also different. Under the hypothesis of utility maximization, this paper classifies individual savings motivation into life-cycle savings motivation, precautionary savings motivation, liquidity constraint savings motivation and legacy savings motivation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the income and the propensity to save, the conclusion is drawn that the total saving tendency of a person has a "U" relationship with the income. The smaller the income distribution gap is, the larger the middle income class is, and the higher the social consumption tendency is. This paper uses the empirical analysis method to test the long-term cointegration relationship between the Gini coefficient and the resident consumption rate, and carries on the regression analysis to the influencing factors of the consumption tendency of the urban and rural residents in China. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) there is a negative correlation between the Gini coefficient and the consumption rate of Chinese residents. The long-term unfair income distribution will lead to the decline of the total consumption of the society. In order to stimulate domestic demand, the reform of income distribution must be carried out. (2) the fluctuation of residents' income growth is the most important factor in influencing the consumption tendency of residents. The greater the income risk is, the more precautionary savings are, and the less consumption is. In order to expand domestic demand, macro-control measures must be taken to reduce people's uncertain expectations. (3) as the consumer credit market in China is still underdeveloped, the impact of credit factors on residents' consumption is minimal. But the role of the financial system in improving income distribution and promoting consumption cannot be ignored. And this kind of function display needs the guidance of government macroscopical policy. The innovation of this paper is that the model of income and savings propensity of Yuan Zhigang and Zhu Guolin (2002) is improved and revised. A distinction is made between early savings that cannot be financed by borrowing in anticipation of unforeseen spending conditions and savings made to complete planned consumption arrangements. On the basis of the original model, the liquidity constraint saving tendency is added, and the influence of consumer credit and financial development on promoting residents' consumption and improving income distribution is analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F124.7;F224

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