本文選題：人口預(yù)測(cè) + 土地資源承載力��； 參考：《長(zhǎng)江流域資源與環(huán)境》2014年08期

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)資源環(huán)境約束趨緊和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型背景下,開(kāi)展人口規(guī)模預(yù)測(cè)研究對(duì)協(xié)調(diào)人口、資源、經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系具有積極意義。以無(wú)錫市區(qū)為例,核算土地資源人口承載力與不同時(shí)間階段經(jīng)濟(jì)合理人口規(guī)模,分析土地資源人口承載量與經(jīng)濟(jì)合理人口規(guī)模之間的關(guān)系,解析未來(lái)人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)和影響因素。結(jié)果表明:無(wú)錫市區(qū)人口仍將穩(wěn)步增加,外來(lái)人口仍將是常住人口增量的主體,但增速趨緩;2015、2020年經(jīng)濟(jì)合理人口分別約為404萬(wàn)和434萬(wàn)人,逐漸超出土地資源承載力所確定的402萬(wàn)人的合理人口規(guī)模;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引起的就業(yè)人口的需求增長(zhǎng)是導(dǎo)致人口總量增長(zhǎng)的主要因素。未來(lái)需要通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率提升、公共服務(wù)設(shè)施完善等手段調(diào)控人口發(fā)展,以減輕資源環(huán)境壓力和保障經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of tight resource and environment restriction and economic development in developed regions, it is of great significance to coordinate the relationship among population, resources and economy to carry out population scale prediction. Taking Wuxi urban area as an example, this paper calculates the population carrying capacity of land resources and the reasonable economic population scale at different time stages, analyzes the relationship between the population carrying capacity of land resources and the rational population scale of economy, and analyzes the future population development trend and influencing factors. The results show that the population of Wuxi urban area will increase steadily, and the population of foreign population will still be the main part of the increment of resident population, but the growth rate will slow down to 2015, and the reasonable economic population in 2020 will be about 404,000 and 4.34 million, respectively. It gradually exceeds the reasonable population scale of 4.02 million people determined by the carrying capacity of land resources, and the demand growth of the employed population caused by the economic growth is the main factor leading to the total population growth. In the future, it is necessary to adjust and control population development by means of adjusting industrial structure, improving labor productivity and perfecting public service facilities in order to alleviate the pressure of resources and environment and to ensure economic development.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(41130750) 中國(guó)科學(xué)院重點(diǎn)部署項(xiàng)目(KZZD-EW-06-03) 中國(guó)科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所青年人才基金項(xiàng)目(NIGLAS2011QD03)
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F127

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