本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) + 財(cái)政赤字�。� 參考：《安徽大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：財(cái)政赤字作為一種政府預(yù)算現(xiàn)象,目前廣泛存在于不同社會(huì)政治制度和不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的國(guó)家中。財(cái)政赤字是政府宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控中應(yīng)用最普通的一種經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,財(cái)政赤字政策也是國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控政策中的一個(gè)重要手段。財(cái)政赤字的歷史并不漫長(zhǎng),二十世紀(jì)三十年代,資本主義經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)蔓延,凱恩斯變革式的財(cái)政主張成功挽救了危機(jī)中的資本主義。自“凱恩斯革命”以后,縱觀世界各國(guó),在經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡、發(fā)展變緩的時(shí)候都會(huì)以擴(kuò)大財(cái)政支出和擴(kuò)大財(cái)政赤字的代價(jià)來(lái)促使經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。然而這次成功的革命在后期卻出現(xiàn)了較大的爭(zhēng)議,在走出“大蕭條”之后,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)就陷入了“滯漲”,其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的有效性就受到廣泛的質(zhì)疑。尤其是2008年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引起的全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái),世界各主要國(guó)家不約而同的擴(kuò)大赤字規(guī)模,以求通過(guò)擴(kuò)張的財(cái)政支出來(lái)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。但是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的遲遲低迷、歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)卻讓人對(duì)赤字財(cái)政政策充滿疑惑。 在我國(guó),改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),中國(guó)逐步建立起社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制,為了適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)和改革的發(fā)展,中國(guó)基本上實(shí)行的是相機(jī)抉擇的財(cái)政政策,財(cái)政赤字伴隨著擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策的面貌而出現(xiàn)。具體而言,1993年以來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了通貨膨脹、經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱到通貨緊縮、經(jīng)濟(jì)偏冷,然后轉(zhuǎn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)局部過(guò)熱、結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題突出到2008年金融危機(jī)經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)冷,于此對(duì)應(yīng),財(cái)政政策也進(jìn)行了四次次大的調(diào)整,相繼實(shí)行了適度從緊財(cái)政政策、積極的財(cái)政政策、穩(wěn)健的財(cái)政政策以及積極的財(cái)政政策,在這幾次大的調(diào)整中,財(cái)政赤字的規(guī)�；境手鹉赀f增趨勢(shì)。特別是2008年實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策以來(lái),中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字迅速增加,2013年中央政府?dāng)M安排財(cái)政赤字1.2萬(wàn)億元。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),財(cái)政赤字對(duì)緩解我國(guó)的財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān),進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)和體制改革都起到了一定的作用。但是就中國(guó)前幾次實(shí)踐的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)說(shuō),財(cái)政政策短期見(jiàn)效快、影響久的特點(diǎn),使得在調(diào)控過(guò)程中難以控制赤字規(guī)模的實(shí)施效果,在財(cái)政政策擴(kuò)張和收縮的過(guò)程中,出現(xiàn)過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱和經(jīng)濟(jì)“硬著陸”的現(xiàn)象。 歷史是相似的,但絕對(duì)不會(huì)重復(fù)。我們必須思考這樣幾個(gè)問(wèn)題：如何客觀評(píng)價(jià)中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)?財(cái)政赤字政策對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有無(wú)效應(yīng)、有多大效應(yīng)以及效應(yīng)的作用機(jī)制如何?財(cái)政赤字對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否存在危害影響,我們?cè)撊绾斡^察到并預(yù)防或消除這種危害?未來(lái)中國(guó)應(yīng)該實(shí)施怎樣的財(cái)政政策?這些問(wèn)題都需要進(jìn)行深入的研究,以為國(guó)家實(shí)施制定恰當(dāng)?shù)呢?cái)政政策提供理論依據(jù)、分析工具和實(shí)證分析。為了解答這些問(wèn)題,本文從理論和實(shí)踐兩個(gè)角度檢驗(yàn)財(cái)政赤字與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系,并由此總結(jié)出財(cái)政赤字對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生效應(yīng)中重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的幾點(diǎn)。并通過(guò)理論研究和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),就財(cái)政赤字對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生的影響得出一定的結(jié)論。 全文分五個(gè)部分：第一部分為緒論,包括研究研究目的和研究意義,以及國(guó)內(nèi)外研究綜述。第二部分介紹了西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)流派中四種不同的財(cái)政赤字理論,并做出歸納和評(píng)述。第三部分為中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字政策的實(shí)踐分析,初步梳理了改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和財(cái)政赤字政策的狀況,結(jié)合第二部分的理論分析,得出凱恩斯主義適合我國(guó)國(guó)情,并研究凱恩斯財(cái)政赤字理論作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的實(shí)現(xiàn)機(jī)制。第四部分為中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的實(shí)證研究。主要包括兩個(gè)部分,首先是對(duì)中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)制的有效性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),然后直接驗(yàn)證財(cái)政赤字與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)關(guān)系,主要運(yùn)用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)以及格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),得出財(cái)政赤字和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間有著長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系以及在短期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和財(cái)政赤字之間互為格蘭杰原因,而中期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是財(cái)政赤字的格蘭杰原因,財(cái)政赤字不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的格蘭杰原因。第五部分是中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字實(shí)踐,從認(rèn)識(shí)和實(shí)踐的角度提出正確處理財(cái)政赤字與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的若干政策建議。本文認(rèn)為短期內(nèi)財(cái)政赤字對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有一定作用,但中期沒(méi)有作用,因此最終仍需淡出,并且中國(guó)的財(cái)政赤字實(shí)踐需要進(jìn)一步結(jié)合中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際情況和宏觀環(huán)境,也要特別注重財(cái)政赤字風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過(guò)理論和實(shí)證的分析檢驗(yàn),本文期望能給中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字政策實(shí)踐提供一些有意義的借鑒。
[Abstract]:As a government budget phenomenon, the fiscal deficit is widely used in different social and political systems and countries with different economic development levels. The fiscal deficit is the most common economic variable in the government's macroeconomic regulation and control, and the fiscal deficit policy is also an important means in the national macroeconomic regulation and control policy. The history is not long. In 1930s, the capitalist economic crisis spread, and Keynes's revolutionary financial proposition successfully saved the capitalism in the crisis. Since the "Keynes revolution", all countries in the world will expand the cost of fiscal expenditure and expand the budget deficit when the economy is sluggish and the development slows down. However, the success of the revolution appeared in the late period, but after the great depression, the economy of the United States was "stagflated", and the effectiveness of its economic growth was widely questioned. Especially since the global financial crisis caused by the American subprime crisis in 2008, the major countries of the world did not. The same expansion of the deficit in order to boost the economic recovery through an expansion of fiscal spending, but the slow downturn in the US economy and the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis are full of doubts about deficit fiscal policy.
In China, since the reform and opening up, China has gradually established a socialist market economy system. In order to adapt to the development of economy and reform, China has basically implemented a discretionary fiscal policy. The fiscal deficit is accompanied by the appearance of expansionary fiscal policy. Specifically, China's economy has experienced inflation since 1993. To the deflation, the economy is cold, and then the economy is partially overheated, the structural problem is prominent to the economic overcooling of the financial crisis in 2008. In this correspondence, the fiscal policy has also been adjusted for four times, and the appropriate fiscal policy, the positive fiscal policy, the sound fiscal policy and the active fiscal policy have been carried out in succession. In several major adjustments, the scale of the fiscal deficit has been increasing year by year. Especially since the implementation of the active fiscal policy in 2008, China's fiscal deficit has increased rapidly and the central government plans to arrange a fiscal deficit of 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan in 2013. There is no doubt that the fiscal deficit will relieve the financial burden of our country and carry out economic and institutional reform. It has played a certain role, but as far as the experience of previous practice in China is concerned, the short term effect of fiscal policy is fast, and the characteristics of the long term influence make it difficult to control the effect of the implementation of the scale of the deficit in the process of regulation. In the course of the expansion and contraction of fiscal policy, the phenomenon of economic and economic "hard landing" has appeared.
History is similar, but never repeating. We have to think about such questions: how to objectively evaluate the economic effect of China's fiscal deficit policy? How does the fiscal deficit policy have effect on China's economic development, how much effect and the effect mechanism of the effect? The impact of the fiscal deficit on economic growth, I How should we observe and prevent or eliminate this harm? What kind of fiscal policy should China implement in the future? These issues need in-depth research to provide theoretical basis for the implementation of appropriate fiscal policies, analysis tools and empirical analysis. In order to answer these questions, this article examines from two angles of theory and practice. The relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth is tested, and a few points of focus on the effect of fiscal deficit on economic growth are summarized, and some conclusions are drawn on the effect of fiscal deficit on economic growth through theoretical and empirical tests.
The full text is divided into five parts: the first part is an introduction, including the purpose and significance of research and research, as well as a summary of domestic and foreign research. The second part introduces four different theories of fiscal deficit in western economic schools, and makes a summary and comment. The third part is the practical analysis of the Chinese fiscal red word policy, and the reform is preliminarily combed. The situation of China's economic development and fiscal deficit policy since the second part of the theoretical analysis, concluded that Keynes is suitable for China's national conditions, and the study of the effect of Keynes's fiscal deficit theory on economic growth mechanism. The fourth part is an empirical study between China's fiscal deficit and economic growth. It mainly includes two parts. The first is to test the effectiveness of China's fiscal deficit on economic growth, and then directly verify the relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth. It mainly uses unit root test, cointegration test and Grainger causality test to conclude that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth, and in the short term. Between the economic growth and the financial deficit is the Grainger reason, and the medium-term economic growth is the Grainger cause of the fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit is not the Grainger reason of the economic growth. The fifth part is the practice of China's fiscal deficit. From the perspective of cognition and practice, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to correctly deal with the relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth. The short term fiscal deficit has a certain role in economic growth, but it does not work in the middle period, so it still needs to fade out, and the practice of China's fiscal deficit needs to be further combined with the actual situation of China's economy and the macro environment, and we should pay special attention to the risk of fiscal deficit. The practice of fiscal deficit policy provides some meaningful references.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F812.4

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