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中國省際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的實證分析

發(fā)布時間:2018-06-27 15:48

  本文選題:經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量 + 省際差異; 參考:《浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中研究的非常深入的一個概念,幾乎伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)誕生而出現(xiàn)的,同時其也一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要目標(biāo)之一。但是將近兩百年的歷史中,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論幾乎都是在研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)量的問題,從經(jīng)典的哈羅德-多馬模型到現(xiàn)在的內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論,幾乎所有理論都是在研究如何更快更有效的實現(xiàn)GDP,也就是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)量的增加,而罕有人研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長在質(zhì)量上的提高。但是顯而易見,一個真正完整的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不僅僅是外在表現(xiàn)為數(shù)量的增加,更應(yīng)該體現(xiàn)在與之相應(yīng)的增長質(zhì)量的提高,兩者相輔相成,,不可或缺其一。中國自改革開放以來,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展在數(shù)量上已然取得了令人嘆為觀止的巨大成功,但與此同時,伴隨著快速發(fā)展而來的關(guān)于社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源環(huán)境等之間的矛盾也日漸凸顯。經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型勢在必行,提高中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的問題已經(jīng)成為中國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中一項最重要的課題之一。本文就是在這樣的理論背景與現(xiàn)實背景之下,重新構(gòu)建出新的指標(biāo)評價體系來對我國大陸30個省級行政區(qū)(不包含西藏)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量差異進(jìn)行評價研究,并給出相適的對策建議。 具體來說,本文首先在對國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,重新界定什么是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量,即對其內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行了重新的論述。其次,在前人所構(gòu)建的指標(biāo)體系之下,融入自身的見解,對之進(jìn)行重新的指標(biāo)構(gòu)建。本文最終一共選取了五個方面,六個維度的二十一個指標(biāo)構(gòu)成全新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的評價指標(biāo)體系。然后,由于指標(biāo)以及研究的對象(30個省級行政區(qū))數(shù)據(jù)量非常的大,指標(biāo)與指標(biāo)之間也有著相關(guān)性,為了解決這個問題本文選擇利用SPSS軟件,運用因子分析和聚類分析相結(jié)合的方法,對省際的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量差異進(jìn)行了研究,本文主要得到的結(jié)論有:從大的整體來看我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量非常的不平衡,省際間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長差異明顯。其中,30個省級行政區(qū)中大約百分之三十以上區(qū)域的地區(qū)在第一公因子,即“經(jīng)濟(jì)社會綜合實力”指標(biāo)上表現(xiàn)較弱;一半以上的省際行政區(qū)不能達(dá)到“協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展”;三分之二的省際行政區(qū)“穩(wěn)定性與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的持續(xù)性”得不到保障。通過進(jìn)一步的聚類分析顯示我國當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量表現(xiàn)為縱向劃分的差異性特征,即東部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量較高,中西部較低;同時東部地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)在增長過程中表現(xiàn)出較為明顯的“點—線—面”增長級特征;而與之相對應(yīng)的是中西部地區(qū)較為明顯的二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)特征,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與生態(tài)和諧的巨大矛盾。隨后,通過對RD投入與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的實證分析顯示,東部經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量較高的地區(qū)其RD投入也最多,而這些地區(qū)RD投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用也顯著;而中西部經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量較差的地區(qū)對RD的投入也較少,與此同時RD投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長幾乎沒有影響。與此同時,雖然東部的RD投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用顯著,但是由于其RD投入轉(zhuǎn)化為實際經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的能力較差,所以RD投入的產(chǎn)出彈性相較于發(fā)達(dá)國家也明顯較低。最后,通過對上述結(jié)論的進(jìn)一步分析,本文更深入的分析了造成我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量較低以及巨大的省際差異的內(nèi)外原因,并根據(jù)這些原因相應(yīng)地提出解決這種差異的對策與建議。 本文的主要貢獻(xiàn)在于:從理論創(chuàng)新方面來講,本文在前人的研究基礎(chǔ)之上,融入最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究成果,重新界定了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量,并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了新的指標(biāo)體系,使之更具有現(xiàn)實性與理論性。運用這個心的指標(biāo)體系能夠更準(zhǔn)確更全面更直觀地反映出我國30個省級行政區(qū)間增長質(zhì)量的差異。從分析角度的方面來講,本文突破了前人從單一要素對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量分析的束縛,從更為開闊的視野出發(fā),從經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的持續(xù)性和穩(wěn)定性、科技進(jìn)步、社會生活以及資源利用和生態(tài)環(huán)境等五個方面六個維度綜合分析評價經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的質(zhì)量問題,更加地全面與富有現(xiàn)實意義。從研究方法來講,在對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量理論研究和統(tǒng)計研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,運用因子分析以及聚類分析的方法對30個省級行政區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量進(jìn)行了綜合的評價與分析。這樣的結(jié)合可以使得兩種方法之間相互結(jié)合,又能互為補充,最大程度的克服掉主觀性的干擾,從而能更加客觀準(zhǔn)確的反映出省際間增長質(zhì)量差異的所在。同時,本文又以內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型為基礎(chǔ),采用面板數(shù)據(jù)方法研究RD投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的影響,對省際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的差異進(jìn)行了更為詳細(xì)的分析與論述。
[Abstract]:The theory of economic growth is a very deep concept in economics, which is almost accompanied by the birth of economics. At the same time, it has always been one of the important targets of economic development. But in the history of nearly two hundred years, the theory of economic growth is almost all in the study of the number of economic growth, from the classic Harold - Thomas. From the model to the present theory of endogenous growth, almost all theories are studying how to achieve faster and more efficient implementation of GDP, that is, the increase in economic growth, while few people study the quality of economic growth. However, it is obvious that a truly complete economic growth is not only an increase in external performance, but also an increase in quantity. It should be reflected in the improvement of the corresponding growth quality. The two are complementary and indispensable. Since China's reform and opening to the outside world, the economic development has made an amazing great success in the number of economic development, but at the same time, the contradiction between the social, economic and resource environment is becoming more and more with the rapid development. It is imperative that the economic transformation is imperative. The problem of improving China's economic growth has become one of the most important issues in the development of China's national economy. This paper is to reestablish a new index evaluation system to the economy of 30 provincial administrative regions (excluding Tibet) in China. The difference of growth quality is evaluated, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given.
Specifically, on the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the quality of economic growth, this paper redefines what is the quality of economic growth, that is, its connotation is re discussed. Secondly, under the index system constructed by the predecessors, it is integrated into its own views to make a new index construction. In five aspects, the twenty-one indexes of the six dimensions constitute a new evaluation index system for the quality of economic growth. Then, as the index and the object of the study (30 provincial administrative regions) are very large, there is also a correlation between the index and the index. In order to solve this problem, we choose to use SPSS software and use factor analysis. Combined with cluster analysis, the quality difference of economic growth between provinces is studied. The main conclusions are as follows: from a large whole, the quality of economic growth is very uneven in China, and the economic growth difference between provinces is obvious. Among them, about thirty percent regions of the 30 provincial administrative regions are in the first place. A public factor, that is, is weak in the "comprehensive economic and social strength" index, and more than half of the provincial administrative region can not achieve "coordination and sustainable development"; 2/3 the inter provincial administrative region "stability and economic growth sustainability" can not be guaranteed. Through further cluster analysis, the quality of economic growth in China is shown to show the quality of our country's economic growth. In the eastern region, the economic growth of the eastern region is relatively low, and the economic growth in the eastern region shows a more obvious "point to line to face" in the eastern region, while the relatively obvious characteristics of the two yuan economic structure in the central and western regions and the economy are relative to the economy in the eastern region. The great contradiction between development and ecological harmony. Then, through the empirical analysis of the RD input and the quality of economic growth, the RD investment in the region with higher economic growth quality is also the most, and the role of RD investment in these regions is also significant, while the region with poor economic growth in the central and western regions is also less invested in the RD. At the same time, RD input has little impact on economic growth. At the same time, although RD input in the East has a significant role in economic growth, the output elasticity of RD input is significantly lower than that in developed countries because of its poor ability to transform RD into actual economic output. Finally, the further analysis of the above conclusions is made. In this paper, the internal and external reasons for the low quality of China's economic growth and the huge inter provincial differences are analyzed in this paper, and the countermeasures and suggestions for solving these differences are put forward according to these reasons.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows: in terms of theoretical innovation, on the basis of previous research, this paper reintegrates the latest economic research results and redefines the quality of economic growth. On this basis, a new index system is constructed to make it more realistic and theoretical. The index system of this heart can be more accurate and more complete. It is more intuitive to reflect the differences in the growth quality of the 30 provincial administrative regions in China. From the perspective of the analysis, this article breaks through the predecessors' constraints on the analysis of the quality of economic growth from a single factor, from a more open perspective, from the economic structure, the sustainability and stability of economic growth, the progress of science and technology, the social life and the capital. The comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the quality of economic growth in five aspects, such as source utilization and ecological environment, is more comprehensive and realistic. On the basis of the research methods, on the basis of the theoretical and statistical research on the quality of economic growth, the method of factor analysis and cluster analysis is applied to the 30 provincial administrative regions. The quality of the economic growth is evaluated and analyzed comprehensively. This combination can make the two methods be combined with each other, and can complement each other, overcome the subjective interference to the maximum extent, and thus can more objectively and accurately reflect the difference in the inter provincial growth quality. The panel data method is used to study the impact of RD input on the quality of economic growth, and the differences in the quality of inter provincial economic growth are analyzed and discussed in detail.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F124.1

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