本文選題：財(cái)政赤字 + 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《中共中央黨�！�2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：后危機(jī)時(shí)代歐盟爆發(fā)的財(cái)赤問(wèn)題和債務(wù)危機(jī)，似乎印證這句“每輪經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)過(guò)后常常伴隨著債務(wù)危機(jī)�！本驮谌藗兠芮嘘P(guān)注歐債危機(jī)之時(shí)，美國(guó)這個(gè)世界最強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，其財(cái)政狀況也出現(xiàn)了問(wèn)題，并且似乎不比歐盟國(guó)家樂(lè)觀。美國(guó)的財(cái)政赤字問(wèn)題已發(fā)展成為當(dāng)前美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的最大問(wèn)題之一。其實(shí)美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字問(wèn)題由來(lái)已久，從上世紀(jì)中期開始美國(guó)財(cái)政問(wèn)題就不斷，而2008年百年一遇的全球金融危機(jī)加速了美國(guó)財(cái)政狀況惡化，財(cái)政赤字迅速增長(zhǎng)到前所未有的規(guī)模，于是美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字問(wèn)題再一次以岌岌可危之勢(shì)進(jìn)入人們的視野。金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字從2008年的4548億美元增至2009年的1.41萬(wàn)億美元，短短一年增長(zhǎng)了2倍之多。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦財(cái)政赤字從2009年到2012年連續(xù)四年高居1萬(wàn)億美元。 隨著美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府支出不斷膨脹，而財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)潛力又十分有限，美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字未來(lái)走勢(shì)不容樂(lè)觀。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，美國(guó)日益擴(kuò)張的財(cái)政赤字不僅對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生消極影響，，導(dǎo)致高利率、高貿(mào)易赤字、美元貶值和美國(guó)巨額債務(wù)等問(wèn)題，而且通過(guò)各種傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)造成巨大沖擊，尤其是，未來(lái)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還會(huì)推出新一輪量化寬松政策或類似量化寬松政策，借此推高股市、維持美元貶值和促進(jìn)出口增長(zhǎng)。而這相當(dāng)于美國(guó)通過(guò)犧牲其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益來(lái)促進(jìn)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。美國(guó)竭盡全力地通過(guò)各種手段減輕債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，毫無(wú)顧忌地把經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整的代價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)嫁到其他國(guó)家。在此形勢(shì)下，作為美國(guó)國(guó)債最大持有國(guó)、美國(guó)第一大貿(mào)易順差國(guó)的中國(guó)毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)受到的沖擊比任何國(guó)家都大。為此，中國(guó)有必要密切關(guān)注美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字問(wèn)題及其發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，并采取有效措施將可能遭受的損失降到最低。 本文首先從歷史的角度出發(fā)，以歷屆美國(guó)總統(tǒng)任期為時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)，探尋上世紀(jì)60年代至今美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字成長(zhǎng)過(guò)程。然后，在綜合運(yùn)用相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)資料的基礎(chǔ)上，揭示美國(guó)巨額財(cái)政赤字形成原因，主要有制約財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)的因素、導(dǎo)致財(cái)政支出增加的因素及其他深層次原因，其中，深層次原因表現(xiàn)在美國(guó)歷屆政府的財(cái)政選擇思想、美元的庇佑、美國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題和制度性因素。再次，本文從兩個(gè)角度分析美國(guó)巨額財(cái)政赤字帶來(lái)的影響。一是從美國(guó)的角度；二是從中國(guó)這個(gè)美債最大持有國(guó)的角度。這部分是本文的重點(diǎn)，而美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是本部分的重點(diǎn)。美國(guó)巨額財(cái)政赤字對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響表現(xiàn)在：引起中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備大幅縮水、人民幣匯率持續(xù)攀升、外貿(mào)出口面臨下滑和通脹壓力不斷加大。最后，本文在綜合分析美國(guó)巨額財(cái)政赤字對(duì)中美經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的基礎(chǔ)上，探討美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)并提出中國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)策略。未來(lái)十年內(nèi)美國(guó)巨額財(cái)政赤字問(wèn)題是無(wú)法被克服的。為了將美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響降到最低，在短期內(nèi)中國(guó)要控制通脹、穩(wěn)定物價(jià)并調(diào)整外匯儲(chǔ)備結(jié)構(gòu)，在中長(zhǎng)期要推動(dòng)人民幣國(guó)際化、加快經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:The fiscal deficits and debt crises of the European Union in the post crisis era seem to confirm that "every round of the economic crisis is often accompanied by the debt crisis." as people closely watched the European debt crisis, the United States, the world's strongest economy, had a problem in its financial situation and seemed not to be more optimistic than the European Union. The problem of the deficit has been one of the biggest problems in the current economy of the United States. In fact, the problem of the US fiscal deficit has been long since the middle of the last century, and the financial problems of the 2008 global financial crisis accelerated the deterioration of the financial situation in the United States, and the financial deficit was rapidly increasing to an unprecedented scale. The US fiscal deficit is once again in a precarious view. After the financial crisis, the US deficit increased from $454 billion 800 million in 2008 to $1 trillion and 410 billion in 2009, more than 2 times a year. The United States federal budget deficit was 1 trillion dollars from 2009 to 2012.
As the federal government spending is expanding and the growth potential of fiscal revenue is very limited, the future trend of the US fiscal deficit is not optimistic. In the long run, the growing fiscal deficit in the United States not only has a negative impact on the American economy, but also leads to high interest rates, high trade deficits, the devaluation of the US dollar and the huge debt of the United States, and so on. In the future, the Fed will also launch a new round of quantitative easing, or similar quantitative easing, to push up the stock market, maintain the devaluation of the dollar and promote export growth, which is the equivalent of the United States to promote the economic development of the country by sacrificing its national economic interests. The United States has made every effort to reduce its debt burden through various means and unscruple to transfer the cost of economic adjustment to other countries. In this situation, China, as the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, has no doubt that China has a bigger impact than any other country in the country's largest trade surplus country. Fiscal deficit and its development trend, and take effective measures to minimize possible losses.
Starting from the historical point of view, this paper, taking the term of the presidency of the United States as the time node, explores the growth process of the US fiscal deficit in the 60s of last century. Then, on the basis of the comprehensive use of relevant statistical data, it reveals the causes of the formation of the huge fiscal deficit in the United States, which mainly restricts the growth of fiscal revenue and leads to financial expenditure. The increasing factors and other deep reasons, of which, the deep reasons are manifested in the fiscal choice of the United States government, the blessing of the United States dollar, the industrial structure of the United States and institutional factors. Again, this article analyses the impact of the us huge fiscal deficit from two angles. One is from the angle of the United States, and the two is the US debt from China. This part is the focus of this article, and the impact of the US fiscal deficit on China's economy is the focus of this part. The impact of the us huge fiscal deficit on China's economy shows that China's foreign exchange reserves have been drastically shrinking, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise, the export of foreign trade is facing a decline and inflationary pressure is increasing. Finally, on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the us huge fiscal deficit on China and the United States, the future development trend of the United States fiscal deficit is discussed and China's coping strategy is put forward. In the next ten years, the us huge fiscal deficit problem can not be overcome. In the short term, China should control inflation, stabilize prices and adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves. In the medium and long term, we should promote internationalization of RMB and speed up the transformation of economic structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F171.2;F124

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