本文選題：人口老齡化 + 居民消費(fèi)　； 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：1998年湖南省進(jìn)入人口老齡化社會(huì)以來(lái)，湖南省人口老齡化進(jìn)程快速發(fā)展，到2010年湖南省各地級(jí)市都已進(jìn)入人口老齡化階段且老化系數(shù)都高于8%，“五普”、“六普”數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)湖南省人口老化系數(shù)全國(guó)排名從第11位上升到第8位，，且都高于全國(guó)平均水平。人口老齡化會(huì)不會(huì)影響湖南居民消費(fèi)水平？會(huì)不會(huì)影響湖南居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)？這不僅會(huì)關(guān)系到湖南省擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變及民生的改善，也關(guān)系到湖南居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)及產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化。因此，分析湖南省人口老齡化對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先深入分析湖南省人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀、特點(diǎn)及成因并預(yù)測(cè)湖南省老齡化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，然后全面系統(tǒng)的分析了湖南省人口老齡化對(duì)居民消費(fèi)直接和間接影響機(jī)制，在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)和多元線性回歸模型，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)湖南省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)水平的影響，以及運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的分析方法分析城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化的關(guān)聯(lián)程度，試圖找出湖南省人口老齡化與居民消費(fèi)水平及結(jié)構(gòu)之間存在的具體關(guān)系。 通過(guò)理論分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，本文得出以下結(jié)論：（1）湖南省人口老齡化將一定程度降低全省居民消費(fèi)的整體水平；（2）湖南省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)影響顯著，城鄉(xiāng)老年居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)也有一定差異，總的來(lái)說(shuō)醫(yī)療保健、食品和文教娛樂(lè)產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)是老年人的三大主要消費(fèi)品。結(jié)合本文分析的結(jié)論，本文從收入保障政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、生育政策及勞動(dòng)就業(yè)政策等方面提出相關(guān)對(duì)策建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要是較為系統(tǒng)的研究構(gòu)建了湖南省人口老齡化對(duì)居民消費(fèi)影響分析框架。
[Abstract]:Since Hunan Province entered the aging society in 1998, the aging process of the population in Hunan Province has developed rapidly. By 2010, all prefectural cities in Hunan Province have entered the stage of population aging and the aging coefficient is higher than 8%. "Liu Pu" statistics show that the population aging coefficient of Hunan Province has risen from 11th to 8th, and is higher than the national average. Will the aging population affect the consumption level of Hunan residents? Will it affect the consumption structure of Hunan residents? This will not only affect the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand in Hunan Province, the transformation of economic development mode and the improvement of people's livelihood, but also the optimization of the consumption structure of Hunan residents, the upgrading of industrial structure and the modernization of industry. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the effect of population aging on resident consumption in Hunan Province. This paper first analyzes the current situation, characteristics and causes of population aging in Hunan Province, and forecasts the development trend of aging in Hunan Province, and then comprehensively and systematically analyzes the mechanism of direct and indirect influence of population aging on residents' consumption in Hunan Province. On the basis of this, using time series data and multivariate linear regression model, the paper empirically tests the effect of population age structure on consumption level in Hunan Province. This paper also analyzes the correlation degree between the consumption structure of urban and rural residents and the change of age structure by using the method of grey correlation degree, and tries to find out the concrete relationship between the aging population of Hunan Province and the level and structure of resident consumption. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) the aging of population in Hunan Province will reduce the overall level of residents' consumption to a certain extent; (2) the change of population age structure in Hunan Province has a significant impact on the consumption structure of residents. The consumption structure of the elderly residents in urban and rural areas is also different. In general, medical care, food, cultural and educational entertainment products and services are the three major consumer goods for the elderly. Combined with the conclusion of this paper, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of income security policy, industrial policy, birth policy and labor employment policy. The main innovation of this paper is to systematically study the impact of aging population in Hunan Province on the consumption of residents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F126

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