發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-16 14:47

  本文選題：對(duì)外貿(mào)易 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　； 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題一直都是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的重點(diǎn)和難點(diǎn)課題。消費(fèi)、投資和出口被凱恩斯譽(yù)為是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的“三駕馬車”。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的不斷發(fā)展過程中,對(duì)外貿(mào)易更是作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的“加速器”�？v觀中國改革開放30多年的發(fā)展歷程,對(duì)外貿(mào)易在推動(dòng)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著不可估量的作用。 改革開放30多年來,重慶的對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)重慶地方經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展確實(shí)有著巨大的推動(dòng)作用。因此,研究重慶市的對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系,依據(jù)客觀的數(shù)據(jù)來探究重慶對(duì)外貿(mào)易的進(jìn)出口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響因子是怎樣的,以及對(duì)外貿(mào)易在一定時(shí)期內(nèi)會(huì)對(duì)重慶市的GDP產(chǎn)生了什么樣的影響,這些研究結(jié)果都將對(duì)未來重慶制定經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展政策和對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策有著巨大的參考意義。 通過回顧系列關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的經(jīng)典理論、運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法以及統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)軟件工具等,本文對(duì)重慶市的對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行全面的研究。整體上文章首先對(duì)有關(guān)對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長二者之間關(guān)系的理論研究進(jìn)行了縱向的回顧,其次分析了重慶當(dāng)前的對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,之后利用重慶1987-2011年的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),通過Eviews軟件利用Johansen協(xié)整理論、誤差修正模型(ECM)等方法對(duì)二者之間的關(guān)系作了實(shí)證分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上指出當(dāng)前重慶對(duì)外貿(mào)易中存在的問題及原因,最終提出促進(jìn)重慶對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的政策建議。 通過定性分析本文得出：不斷擴(kuò)大的對(duì)外貿(mào)易總量,不斷升級(jí)的外貿(mào)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),以及逐漸優(yōu)化的對(duì)外貿(mào)易方式和多元化的對(duì)外貿(mào)易市場等,全面的提高了重慶外貿(mào)水平和地區(qū)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。通過協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果表明重慶的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與出口、進(jìn)口、消費(fèi)、投資之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系且對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)度要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)度。在上述結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,文章分析了重慶對(duì)外貿(mào)易中存在的問題：總量偏小,進(jìn)出口總額在全國位次中偏低；重慶出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)單一,技術(shù)含量低；貿(mào)易發(fā)展相對(duì)滯后,加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展尤為薄弱；對(duì)外貿(mào)易依存度偏低等問題。在此基礎(chǔ)上了從政府、企業(yè)和宏觀環(huán)境三個(gè)層面分析了可能存在的原因并提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議,以將重慶打造成為內(nèi)陸開放高地城市,實(shí)現(xiàn)地區(qū)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The problem of economic growth has always been the focus and difficulty of economic research. Consumption, investment and exports were hailed by Keynes as the troika of economic growth. In the process of global economic integration, foreign trade is the accelerator of economic growth. Throughout the development of China's reform and opening up for more than 30 years, foreign trade plays an inestimable role in promoting the development of China's economy. Since the reform and opening up, Chongqing's foreign trade has played an important role in the development of Chongqing's local economy. Therefore, to study the relationship between Chongqing's foreign trade and economic growth, and to explore the impact factors of Chongqing's foreign trade imports and exports on economic growth based on objective data. And what kind of influence the foreign trade will have on the GDP of Chongqing in a certain period of time, these research results will be of great reference significance to the formulation of economic development policy and foreign trade policy of Chongqing in the future. By reviewing a series of classical theories on economic growth, using econometric methods and statistical software tools, this paper makes a comprehensive study of the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Chongqing. As a whole, the article firstly reviews the theoretical research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and then analyzes the current development situation of Chongqing's foreign trade and economic operation. Then, using the relevant economic data of Chongqing from 1987 to 2011, using the method of Johansen cointegration theory and error correction model (ECM), the paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between them. On this basis, the paper points out the existing problems and causes of Chongqing's foreign trade, and finally puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the development of Chongqing's foreign trade. Through qualitative analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: the total amount of foreign trade is constantly expanding, the product structure of foreign trade is constantly upgraded, and the mode of foreign trade is gradually optimized and the foreign trade market is diversified, etc. Comprehensive improvement of Chongqing's foreign trade level and the overall economic development of the region. Through cointegration test, the results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and export, import, consumption and investment in Chongqing, and the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth is much smaller than that of investment to economic growth. On the basis of the above conclusions, the paper analyzes the problems existing in Chongqing's foreign trade: the total quantity is small, the total import and export amount is low in the whole country, the structure of Chongqing's export commodities is single, the technology content is low, and the trade development is lagging behind. Processing trade development is particularly weak; foreign trade dependence is low and other problems. On this basis, this paper analyzes the possible reasons from three aspects of government, enterprise and macro environment, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, in order to build Chongqing into an inland open highland city and realize the stable development of the whole regional economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F752.8;F224

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