發(fā)布時間：2018-06-13 17:10

  本文選題：人民幣實際有效匯率 + 進出口�。� 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：縱觀人民幣匯率變化的過程我們發(fā)現(xiàn)2005年以前我國一直實施的是事實上盯住美元的匯率制度，直到我國貿(mào)易順差、外匯儲備不斷擴大，并且國際社會上對人民幣升值所施加的壓力持續(xù)增加時，我國貨幣當局才在2005年7月21日正式宣布將對人民幣匯率形成機制進行改革。從此人民幣匯率步入了持續(xù)漸進的升值軌道，，雖然由于2007年美國次貸危機引發(fā)了全球的金融海嘯致使人民幣匯率從2008年到2010年5月這段時間內(nèi)回歸到了盯住美元的策略，但是當國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟形勢產(chǎn)生好轉(zhuǎn)時，央行在2010年6月19日宣布重啟之前的人民幣匯率形成機制的改革。從2002年1月到2012年6月間，人民幣兌美元的匯率已經(jīng)從8.27升值到了6.32左右。 傳統(tǒng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論認為：一國貨幣匯率升值將導(dǎo)致該國出口產(chǎn)品的相對價格上升，致使出口下降，另外由于匯率升值，進口商品價格下降導(dǎo)致進口上升，最終使經(jīng)常賬戶的惡化，并進而引起一國經(jīng)濟緊縮。由于我國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)一直存在著嚴重依賴外需、對外貿(mào)易依存度較高的問題，2007年由美國次貸危機所引發(fā)的全球金融海嘯致使我國所面臨的外部環(huán)境急劇惡化，同時在此期間伴隨著人民幣持續(xù)的升值，我國外貿(mào)進出口額急劇下降，并且實體經(jīng)濟也受到了一定程度的拖累。與此同時，中國重要的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟體——東北地區(qū)，其進出口也受到了較大的沖擊，伴隨著金融危機和人民幣匯率的升值，東北地區(qū)的進出口總額在2009年出現(xiàn)了負增長。 目前，學(xué)者們對匯率波動同進出口和經(jīng)濟增長之間關(guān)系的研究，多集中在全國的范圍和個別進出口貿(mào)易發(fā)達的省份，并沒有對區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟體展開研究，特別是傳統(tǒng)的老工業(yè)基地東北地區(qū)的研究則更是空白。 本文從匯率波動對東北地區(qū)進出口產(chǎn)生何種影響并進而以怎樣的傳導(dǎo)機制影響了東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長的思路出發(fā)，分析了在目前的外部經(jīng)濟環(huán)境下，我國局部區(qū)域經(jīng)濟所面臨的機遇和挑戰(zhàn)。 在實證分析的過程中，本文先是基于1995年到2012年的數(shù)據(jù)，運用進出口方程和ECM模型對人民幣匯率變動、進出口商品價格、對外貿(mào)易政策、國民收入和東北地區(qū)進出口額之間的長短期關(guān)系做了回歸分析，大體得出人民幣的匯率形成機制改革對東北地區(qū)的進出口貿(mào)易都產(chǎn)生了較大的影響。之后沿著這條路徑，基于1994年到2012年間的數(shù)據(jù)，將國民收入、職工工資、價格水平、人民幣實際匯率、財政支出和社會消費品零售總額帶入VAR模型中，并運用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析了人民幣實際有效匯率的波動會對宏觀經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中的其它變量產(chǎn)生怎么樣的影響。結(jié)果顯示，短期內(nèi)人民幣實際有效匯率升值會使經(jīng)濟受到負面的沖擊。
[Abstract]:Looking at the course of RMB exchange rate changes, we find that the exchange rate system that China implemented before 2005 was in fact pegged to the US dollar, until China's trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves continued to expand. When the pressure on RMB appreciation in the international community continued to increase, China's monetary authorities officially announced on July 21, 2005 that they would reform the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Since then, the RMB exchange rate has been on the path of continuous and gradual appreciation, although the US sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered the global financial tsunami in 2007, which resulted in the RMB exchange rate returning to the US dollar peg during the period from 2008 to May 2010. But when economic conditions at home and abroad improved, the central bank announced on June 19, 2010, reforms to the yuan's previous exchange rate regime. Between January 2002 and June 2012, the yuan rose from 8.27 to around 6.32 against the dollar. The traditional macroeconomic theory holds that the appreciation of the exchange rate of a country's currency will lead to a rise in the relative price of the country's export products, leading to a decline in exports, and an increase in imports due to the appreciation of the exchange rate and the decline in the price of imported goods. Eventually, it worsens the current account and, in turn, compacts a country's economy. Because of the serious dependence on external demand and the high degree of dependence on foreign trade in China's economic structure, the global financial tsunami caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 has caused a sharp deterioration of the external environment that our country is facing. At the same time, with the continuous appreciation of RMB, the import and export of China's foreign trade has declined sharply, and the real economy has been dragged down to a certain extent. At the same time, the import and export of Northeast region, an important regional economy of China, has also suffered a great impact. With the financial crisis and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the total import and export volume of Northeast China increased negatively in 2009. At present, scholars' studies on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and import and export and economic growth are mostly focused on the national scope and individual provinces with developed import and export trade, and no studies have been conducted on regional economies. Especially the research of the traditional old industrial base in Northeast China is blank. From the view of the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export of Northeast China and the influence of the transmission mechanism on the economic growth in Northeast China, this paper analyzes the current external economic environment. The opportunity and challenge that our country partial area economy faces. In the process of empirical analysis, this paper first based on the data from 1995 to 2012, using the import and export equation and ECM model to the RMB exchange rate changes, import and export commodity prices, foreign trade policy, A regression analysis is made between the national income and the import and export volume in Northeast China. It is concluded that the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has a great influence on the import and export trade in Northeast China. Then along this path, based on the data from 1994 to 2012, bring into the VAR model national income, employee wages, price levels, the real exchange rate of RMB, fiscal expenditure and total retail sales of social consumer goods. The pulse response function is used to analyze how the fluctuation of RMB effective exchange rate affects other variables in macroeconomic system. The results show that the real effective exchange rate appreciation in the short-term will make the economy suffer a negative impact.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F832.6

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 孫剛;谷宇;;人民幣匯率變動的宏觀經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)分析——來自大連市的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2012年07期

2 項衛(wèi)星;李s

本文編號：2014751