本文選題：外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)��； 參考：《山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化發(fā)展進(jìn)程的加深，世界各國間的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系不斷加強(qiáng)。作為開放型的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，更深層次、更廣領(lǐng)域的參與國際分工已成為必然。如何處理好對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系，對(duì)一國或地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康有序發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。同時(shí)，對(duì)于對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系的探究，是國際貿(mào)易學(xué)和產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域的研究熱點(diǎn)。因此，以山東省為例，對(duì)兩者關(guān)系的探究具有重要的理論意義和針對(duì)性的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先分別對(duì)對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論以及兩者間的互動(dòng)機(jī)制進(jìn)行梳理，然后對(duì)山東省外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的歷史演進(jìn)進(jìn)行描述性分析，，繼而在理論、現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)之上對(duì)兩者之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，最后得出結(jié)論，并依據(jù)結(jié)論得出相關(guān)建議。 本文的主要內(nèi)容包括以下部分： 第一章，闡述了文章的寫作背景和意義，并從外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)方面對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)做了回顧。在此基礎(chǔ)上，提出創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)：以地區(qū)為角度，探索山東省內(nèi)部與外部經(jīng)濟(jì)的良好結(jié)合的途徑。 第二章，對(duì)國際貿(mào)易理論對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的解釋、產(chǎn)業(yè)理論的演進(jìn)進(jìn)行了梳理，并探索兩者的互動(dòng)機(jī)制。得出：兩者相互作用于對(duì)方，并且受政府政策等外生因素的影響。 第三章，對(duì)山東省外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展進(jìn)行了描述性分析。得出：山東省外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)有了較大改善，特別是出口結(jié)構(gòu)，但仍有較大發(fā)展空間。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)已完成由“一二三”向“二三一”的轉(zhuǎn)變，逐步合理化。這為接下來的實(shí)證分析提供了現(xiàn)實(shí)依據(jù)。 第四章，為實(shí)證分析部分，首先通過協(xié)整分析、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)、VAR模型等實(shí)證分析對(duì)外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)時(shí)間序列變化的關(guān)系，得出：山東省進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)變化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的Granger原因是單向的，即進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)變化是產(chǎn)業(yè)變化的的Granger原因，而出口結(jié)構(gòu)變化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化互為Granger原因。然后用多元回歸模型分別分析對(duì)外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的影響，省內(nèi)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)變化的影響。 第五章，分別從政府的作用，外貿(mào)商品結(jié)構(gòu)，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)角度總結(jié)建議。得出：結(jié)合世界經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢(shì)，充分發(fā)揮政府的作用，加大科技資金投入，適時(shí)調(diào)整外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，使兩者互動(dòng)升級(jí)。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, the world's economic ties between countries continue to strengthen. As an open economy, deeper and wider participation in international division of labor has become inevitable. How to deal with the relationship between commodity structure and industrial structure of foreign trade is very important to the healthy and orderly development of a country or a region's economy. At the same time, the research on the relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure is a hot topic in the field of international trade and industrial economics. Therefore, taking Shandong Province as an example, exploring the relationship between the two has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper firstly combs the theory of foreign trade structure, the theory of industrial structure and the interaction mechanism between them, then analyzes the historical evolution of commodity structure and industrial structure in Shandong Province. On the basis of the present situation, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the two, and draws a conclusion, and draws some relevant recommendations according to the conclusion. The main contents of this paper include the following parts: the first chapter describes the writing background and significance of the article, and from the foreign trade structure, industrial structure and economic growth, foreign trade structure and industrial structure of three aspects of the literature review. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the innovation point: from the angle of region, it explores the way of good combination of internal and external economy in Shandong Province. The second chapter explains the structure of international trade and the evolution of industrial theory, and explores the interactive mechanism of the two. It is concluded that they interact with each other and are influenced by exogenous factors such as government policy. The third chapter analyzes the structure of foreign trade commodities and the development of industrial structure in Shandong Province. It is concluded that the structure of foreign trade commodities in Shandong Province has been greatly improved, especially the export structure, but there is still great room for development. The industrial structure has been changed from "123" to "23-1" and gradually rationalized. This provides a realistic basis for the next empirical analysis. The fourth chapter, as the empirical analysis part, firstly analyzes the relationship between the foreign trade commodity structure and the time series of industrial structure through the Granger causality test and VAR model. It is concluded that the Granger cause of the change of import structure and industrial structure of Shandong Province is one-way, that is, the change of import structure is the Granger cause of industrial change, while the change of export structure and industrial structure are mutual reasons of Granger. Then the influence of foreign trade commodity structure on industrial structure and the influence of three times industrial structure on the change of foreign trade commodity structure are analyzed by using multivariate regression model. Chapter V, respectively from the role of the government, foreign trade commodity structure, industrial structure from the perspective of summing up recommendations. According to the world economic situation, the government should give full play to the role of the government, increase the investment in science and technology, adjust the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure in good time, so as to promote the interaction between the two.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8;F127;F279.2;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2011831