發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-07 15:16

  本文選題：美國(guó)貨幣政策 + 跨國(guó)溢出��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策的跨國(guó)溢出問(wèn)題一直是國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的熱點(diǎn),但從已有文獻(xiàn)來(lái)看,無(wú)論是理論還是經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究,關(guān)于貨幣政策國(guó)際傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制及溢出效應(yīng)至今尚無(wú)一個(gè)明確的判斷,關(guān)于匯率制度和資本管制在應(yīng)對(duì)外部貨幣政策沖擊中的作用機(jī)制,亦無(wú)一致性結(jié)論。那么,在我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的對(duì)外開(kāi)放政策、匯率體制和資本管制條件下,美國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制及影響程度究竟如何?本文試圖以現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為導(dǎo)向,采用區(qū)域比較的方法,通過(guò)國(guó)際比較以及本國(guó)地區(qū)的內(nèi)部比較,將美國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)溢出效應(yīng)的傳導(dǎo)渠道和影響程度作一個(gè)全面的把握。 首先,本文回顧并梳理了關(guān)于貨幣政策跨國(guó)溢出效應(yīng)的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),并對(duì)其進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單的評(píng)析；其次,將美國(guó)貨幣政策變化對(duì)它國(guó)貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行理論分析；然后,在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文采用結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸(SVAR)模型,選取中國(guó)大陸、香港、日本三個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體數(shù)據(jù)為分析對(duì)象,檢驗(yàn)、比較了美國(guó)貨幣政策(以聯(lián)邦基金利率為代表)對(duì)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度、匯率體制及資本自由水平的國(guó)家(地區(qū))的溢出效應(yīng)差異,并且進(jìn)一步檢驗(yàn)了美國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)東中西部地區(qū)的溢出效應(yīng)差異。最后,結(jié)合實(shí)證結(jié)果,提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 當(dāng)前,我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革、人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制和資本賬戶(hù)改革在異常復(fù)雜的國(guó)際背景下展開(kāi),本文比較分析的結(jié)果對(duì)于當(dāng)前中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策的調(diào)整、以及如何通過(guò)合理配置匯率體制和資本賬戶(hù)政策有效提高我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)外部沖擊,特別是美國(guó)貨幣政策沖擊的能力具有較強(qiáng)的指向性和借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Cross-border spillover of monetary policy has always been a hot topic in international economics. However, there is no clear judgment on the international transmission mechanism and spillover effect of monetary policy, whether in theory or empirical research. There is also no consistent conclusion on the mechanism of exchange rate system and capital control in dealing with external monetary policy shocks. So, under the condition of our country's current opening policy, exchange rate system and capital control, what is the transmission mechanism and influence degree of American monetary policy to our macro-economy? This paper attempts to take the realistic economic data as the direction, adopts the regional comparison method, through the international comparison as well as the domestic region internal comparison, This paper makes a comprehensive understanding of the transmission channel and influence degree of American monetary policy to the macroeconomic spillover effect of our country. First of all, this paper reviews and combs the relevant literature on the transnational spillover effect of monetary policy, and makes a simple analysis of it. Secondly, it makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of the change of monetary policy in the United States on the monetary economy and real economy of other countries. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper adopts the structural vector autoregressive SVAR-model, selects the data of three economies, mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan, as the object of analysis. This paper compares the spillover effects of US monetary policy (represented by the federal funds rate) on countries (regions) with different economic openness, exchange rate regime and level of capital freedom. Furthermore, the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's east, west and west regions are further examined. Finally, combined with the empirical results, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. At present, China's economic system reform, RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and capital account reform are carried out under the extremely complicated international background. And how to improve China's ability to deal with external shocks through rational allocation of exchange rate system and capital account policy, especially the impact of American monetary policy, has strong directionality and reference significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F827.12;F124

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