本文選題：消費支出 + 消費習慣　； 參考：《吉林大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：投資、消費和出口是拉動經(jīng)濟增長的三大重要原因，過去三十余年中國的經(jīng)濟增長主要依靠投資需求和進出口貿(mào)易的拉動，而消費需求相對不足。從西方發(fā)達國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展歷程來看，一個成熟而穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟體制必然遵循消費驅動型為主體的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式。我國目前的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀是消費增長背離了經(jīng)濟增長的軌道，同時伴隨著高投資率和高儲蓄的現(xiàn)象。消費問題既可以從微觀層面的消費行為角度進行度量，也可以從宏觀層面來解讀消費對于國內生產(chǎn)總值的重要影響。 收入的高低是影響消費行為的先決條件，我國現(xiàn)有的收入分配體制還不健全，不同收入群體、不同區(qū)域間的城鎮(zhèn)居民年均可支配收入有著明顯的差異，，且差距在逐年拉大。本文以股市為切入點，來研究收入沖擊對消費的影響，同時將消費習慣進行了量化。 本文正文結構共分四個主要部分，第一章是緒論，系統(tǒng)的介紹了本文的研究背景和意義。揭示了在當前經(jīng)濟形勢下，研究消費習慣、收入沖擊同股市財富之間相關性的重要意義，真正可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟增長方式必須是以具有穩(wěn)定消費需求的經(jīng)濟市場作為依托的。同時對研究思路和方法進行了闡述，總結了文章的創(chuàng)新和不足之處。 文章的第二部分是對國內外研究成果的總結和歸納，國外的研究成果經(jīng)歷了理論基礎完善向實證檢驗技術成熟的順利過渡。而國內相關的研究雖然起步較晚，但也依據(jù)我國經(jīng)濟市場的相關特點進行了調整和創(chuàng)新，取得了一定的突破。 第三章是對兩大經(jīng)典的收入假說：生命周期假說和持久收入假說進行了回顧，并在此基礎上依據(jù)我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的特殊模式和城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費習慣對模型進行了改進，加入了對消費函數(shù)嶄新視角的解讀。 第四章是最重要的實證檢驗部分，本文基于宏觀經(jīng)濟指標分別用兩種方法對股市基本收益和泡沫進行了估計，在此基礎上建立系數(shù)矩陣，加入虛擬變量對截面數(shù)據(jù)進行回歸計算。得到了消費習慣、收入和股市財富變動的趨勢結果，為后續(xù)結論的總結和相關政策建議提供了重要依據(jù)。 最后是本文的結論和政策建議部分，在對實證結果進行總結和分析后本文得出以一下幾點重要結論：1、收入與消費顯著相關，拉動消費需求的前提是收入的持續(xù)增長；2、當期消費與上期消費微弱相關，消費習慣在一定程度上能夠的得到延續(xù)；3、股市的波動也會對消費支出意向產(chǎn)生一定影響。在此基礎上本文也從收入分配改革、社會保障體系的建設等方面提出了相應的意見建議。
[Abstract]:Investment, consumption and export are the three important reasons to stimulate economic growth. In the past three decades, China's economic growth mainly depends on the investment demand and import and export trade, but the consumption demand is relatively insufficient. From the view of the economic development course of the western developed countries, a mature and stable economic system must follow the consumption-driven economic development model. The current situation of economic development in China is that consumption growth deviates from the track of economic growth, accompanied by the phenomenon of high investment rate and high savings. Consumption problem can be measured not only from the micro level of consumption behavior, but also from the macro level to interpret the important impact of consumption on GDP. The income level is the precondition to affect the consumption behavior. The existing income distribution system in China is not perfect. The average annual disposable income of urban residents in different income groups and different regions is obviously different, and the gap is widening year by year. This paper takes the stock market as the starting point to study the impact of income shock on consumption and quantifies consumption habits. The main body of this paper is divided into four main parts. The first chapter is the introduction, systematically introduces the research background and significance of this paper. This paper reveals the significance of studying the correlation between consumption habits, income shocks and stock market wealth under the current economic situation. A truly sustainable economic growth pattern must be based on an economic market with stable consumption demand. At the same time, the research ideas and methods are expounded, and the innovation and shortcomings of the article are summarized. The second part is the summary and induction of the domestic and foreign research results. The foreign research results have experienced a smooth transition from the theoretical foundation to the mature empirical testing technology. Although the domestic related research started relatively late, it also adjusted and innovated according to the relevant characteristics of our country's economic market, and made a certain breakthrough. The third chapter reviews two classical income hypotheses: life cycle hypothesis and persistent income hypothesis, and improves the model according to the special pattern of economic development in China and the consumption habits of urban residents. Added to the consumption function of the new perspective of interpretation. The fourth chapter is the most important part of empirical test. Based on the macroeconomic indicators, this paper estimates the basic returns and bubbles of the stock market using two methods, and then establishes the coefficient matrix. A virtual variable is added to calculate the cross section data. The trend results of consumption habits, income and stock market wealth changes are obtained, which provides an important basis for the summary of subsequent conclusions and related policy recommendations. Finally, it is the conclusion and policy suggestion part of this paper. After summarizing and analyzing the empirical results, this paper draws the following important conclusion: 1, income and consumption are significantly related. The premise of stimulating consumption demand is the sustained growth of income, the current consumption is weak correlation with the previous consumption, the consumption habits can be continued to a certain extent, and the fluctuation of the stock market will also have a certain impact on the consumption expenditure intention. On this basis, this paper also puts forward the corresponding suggestions from the aspects of income distribution reform and the construction of social security system.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F124.7;F832.51;F224

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