本文選題：碳排放 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)成本　； 參考：《燕山大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年，河北省在大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí)環(huán)境問(wèn)題也越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重，碳排放量不斷增長(zhǎng)已嚴(yán)重影響人們的健康生活。如何以最小的碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本和環(huán)境污染實(shí)現(xiàn)碳減排目標(biāo)是最迫切需要解決的問(wèn)題。河北省碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本的核算研究分以下幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行：首先，根據(jù)碳排放量計(jì)算二氧化碳排放量；然后計(jì)算固碳所需的土地面積；進(jìn)而核算河北省的碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本；再對(duì)河北省的碳排放影響因素進(jìn)行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析，根據(jù)灰色預(yù)測(cè)理論和回歸分析法，對(duì)河北省2011-2020年的碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)；在此基礎(chǔ)上提出政策建議。 首先，對(duì)碳排放成本理論的闡述，主要包括碳排放的研究背景、研究意義，，以及國(guó)內(nèi)外碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本的研究現(xiàn)狀。介紹了碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本的概念、機(jī)會(huì)成本的概念以及生態(tài)足跡的概念、碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)核算的幾種方法、核算碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本的迫切性和必要性。 其次，對(duì)河北省的能源消費(fèi)量情況進(jìn)行分析；根據(jù)煤炭、石油、天然氣三種主要化石能源的消費(fèi)量情況以及各類(lèi)能源的碳排放系數(shù)核算碳排放量；利用生態(tài)足跡的方法，從機(jī)會(huì)成本的角度，計(jì)算固碳所需的土地面積；根據(jù)假設(shè)的土地用途計(jì)算所帶來(lái)的機(jī)會(huì)成本,進(jìn)而核算河北省的碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本；在分析結(jié)果的參考下提出了河北省碳排放存在的問(wèn)題以及不足。 然后，利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)方法對(duì)河北省碳排放的影響因素之間的關(guān)聯(lián)度進(jìn)行了計(jì)算，結(jié)合其關(guān)聯(lián)度分析了河北省未來(lái)碳減排應(yīng)該努力的方向，并在借鑒已有的成本計(jì)算方法基礎(chǔ)上提出了碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)成本的核算方法。 最后，依據(jù)“十二五”規(guī)劃中河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)以7%的速度增長(zhǎng),根據(jù)灰色預(yù)測(cè)理論和回歸分析法，對(duì)河北省2011-2020年的碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)；在此基礎(chǔ)上針對(duì)河北省的實(shí)際情況對(duì)治理和減少碳排放提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the environmental problems in Hebei Province are becoming more and more serious while the economy is developing vigorously. The increasing of carbon emissions has seriously affected people's healthy life. How to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction with minimum economic cost of carbon emissions and environmental pollution is the most urgent problem to be solved. The study on the economic cost of carbon emissions in Hebei Province can be divided into the following aspects: first, calculate the carbon dioxide emissions according to the carbon emissions; then calculate the land area required for carbon sequestration; and then calculate the economic cost of carbon emissions in Hebei Province; Based on the grey correlation analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hebei Province, the paper forecasts the carbon emissions of Hebei Province from 2011 to 2020 according to the theory of grey prediction and regression analysis, and puts forward some policy recommendations. First of all, the cost of carbon emissions theory, mainly including the background of carbon emissions, research significance, as well as domestic and foreign economic cost of carbon emissions research status. This paper introduces the concept of economic cost of carbon emissions, the concept of opportunity cost and the concept of ecological footprint, several methods of economic accounting of carbon emissions, and the urgency and necessity of calculating the economic cost of carbon emissions. Secondly, the energy consumption of Hebei Province is analyzed. According to the consumption of coal, oil and natural gas and the carbon emission coefficient of all kinds of energy, the method of using ecological footprint is used to calculate the carbon emissions. From the angle of opportunity cost, the land area needed for carbon sequestration is calculated, and the opportunity cost brought by the assumed land use is calculated to calculate the economic cost of carbon emission in Hebei Province. The problems and shortcomings of carbon emissions in Hebei Province are put forward based on the analysis results. Then, the grey correlation method is used to calculate the correlation degree between the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hebei Province, and the direction of future carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province is analyzed. Based on the existing cost calculation methods, the economic cost accounting method of carbon emissions is put forward. Finally, according to the economic growth rate of 7% in the 12th Five-Year Plan, according to the grey forecast theory and regression analysis method, the carbon emissions of Hebei Province from 2011-2020 are forecasted. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the management and reduction of carbon emissions in view of the actual situation in Hebei Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F205

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