本文選題：通貨膨脹 + 全球通貨膨脹�。� 參考：《天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球金融危機之后,世界各國為了刺激本國經(jīng)濟的復(fù)蘇,紛紛實施寬松的貨幣政策,尤以美國、日本等為首的發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體進行了幾輪量化寬松政策,向市場注入了大量的流動性；另外,美元指數(shù)不斷下行,大宗商品價格屢創(chuàng)新高,全球產(chǎn)出缺口的存在,加上全球工資水平的上升致使生產(chǎn)成本進一步增大,綜合這些因素共同助推了全球通貨膨脹率的不斷攀升。 經(jīng)過對1971年到2012年全球通貨膨脹的波動特征分析,造成全球通貨膨脹的主要原因有美國因素、科技進步、石油及大宗商品價格、貨幣政策的變化以及反通貨膨脹制度的創(chuàng)新等,并發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體與新興經(jīng)濟體通貨膨脹波動特征既有一致性又有差異性。 新凱恩斯菲利普斯曲線強調(diào)了名義工資粘性、遲滯的價格調(diào)整和非完全競爭在理論中的作用,將微觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論應(yīng)用到宏觀經(jīng)濟研究,更好的解釋了社會經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。以新凱恩斯菲利普斯曲線為基礎(chǔ),經(jīng)過理論推導(dǎo),將全球工資水平、全球經(jīng)濟增長、全球貨幣供給、美元匯率和國際資源品價格五個造成全球通貨膨脹的驅(qū)動因素納入到理論模型中來,采用狀態(tài)空間模型對數(shù)據(jù)進行處理,得出了全球貨幣供給的增加是推動通貨膨脹的持續(xù)顯著因素。 全球通貨膨脹同時對我國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了沖擊效應(yīng),將中國經(jīng)濟增長率和人民幣匯率納入VAR模型中,通過分析得出全球通貨膨脹對我國經(jīng)濟增長有持續(xù)的負影響,并對人民幣匯率有持續(xù)的升值壓力。 在以上分析的基礎(chǔ)上,通過借鑒發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體面對全球通貨膨脹采取措施的經(jīng)驗,并結(jié)合我國實際,對我國面對全球通貨膨脹所要采取的措施提出了建議。
[Abstract]:After the global financial crisis, in order to stimulate the recovery of their own economies, countries around the world have implemented loose monetary policies one after another, especially in developed economies such as the United States and Japan, which have carried out several rounds of quantitative easing policies. A lot of liquidity has been injected into the market; in addition, the dollar index is falling, commodity prices are hitting new highs, and there is a global output gap, combined with rising global wages, leading to further increases in production costs. The combination of these factors contributed to the rising global inflation rate. After analyzing the fluctuating characteristics of global inflation from 1971 to 2012, the main causes of global inflation are American factors, advances in science and technology, oil and commodity prices, changes in monetary policy, and innovation in anti-inflation regimes. It is also found that the characteristics of inflation fluctuations in developed and emerging economies are both consistent and different. The new Keynesian Phillips curve emphasizes the role of nominal wage stickiness, sluggish price adjustment and incomplete competition in the theory. The microeconomic theory is applied to the macroeconomic research to better explain the social and economic phenomena. Based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve, through theoretical derivation, the global wage level, global economic growth, global money supply, The five driving factors of global inflation caused by the exchange rate of US dollar and the price of international resource goods are incorporated into the theoretical model, and the data are processed by the state space model. It is concluded that the increase in global money supply is a significant and persistent factor driving inflation. Global inflation has an impact on China's economy at the same time. By integrating Chinese economic growth rate and RMB exchange rate into the VAR model, it is concluded that global inflation has a sustained negative impact on China's economic growth. And the RMB exchange rate has continued appreciation pressure. On the basis of the above analysis, by drawing lessons from the experience of developed economies in taking measures against global inflation and combining with the reality of our country, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the measures to be taken by our country in the face of global inflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F821.5;F124

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