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基于馬兒可夫轉(zhuǎn)換模型下我國國防支出研究及其對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-02 22:07

  本文選題:國防支出 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 ; 參考:《武漢科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:國防支出是國家公共支出的重要組成部分,是國家財(cái)政對國防建設(shè)、人民解放軍和武裝警察部隊(duì)所需的費(fèi)用支出,是加強(qiáng)部隊(duì)建設(shè)、實(shí)現(xiàn)我國國防現(xiàn)代化的財(cái)力保證,在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有重要地位。我國是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長的發(fā)展中國家,周邊安全環(huán)境還很復(fù)雜,因此如何合理調(diào)配資源,安排國防支出使其既能最大程度的滿足國防安全需要又能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè),是國家最重要的決策之一。深入分析了解我國國防支出情況以及對國防支出與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,對國防政策的制定和統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃國防支出具有重要意義。 本文著重研究中國國防支出特點(diǎn)及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的相互關(guān)系。首先,利用非線性下的馬爾可夫轉(zhuǎn)換模型對我國國防支出波動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究,把我國國防支出增長(包括正增長與負(fù)增長)波動(dòng)的大小分成兩類,通過狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣研究不同時(shí)期的變化率大小,,將不同時(shí)期的增長情況與該時(shí)期影響國防支出的因素聯(lián)合分析,考察我國國防支出變動(dòng)的特點(diǎn)。其次,分別采用三部門模型的推導(dǎo)與分析、協(xié)整分析、一個(gè)數(shù)理模型的分析與模擬等方式研究分析國防支出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響,通過理論推導(dǎo)、模型建立、數(shù)據(jù)模擬、實(shí)證分析、相關(guān)結(jié)論等步驟得出基本結(jié)論并以此為依據(jù)提出相關(guān)意見與建議。 進(jìn)一步,通過本研究,希望相關(guān)結(jié)論能夠?yàn)閷?shí)現(xiàn)國防建設(shè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供一定的理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The national defense expenditure is an important part of the national public expenditure, the expenditure required by the state finance for the national defense construction, the people's Liberation Army and the armed police force, and the financial guarantee for strengthening the army building and realizing the modernization of China's national defense. It plays an important role in the macro economy. China is a developing country with high economic growth, and the surrounding security environment is still very complex. Therefore, how to rationally allocate resources and arrange national defense expenditure can not only meet the needs of national defense security to the greatest extent, but also promote economic construction. Is one of the country's most important decisions. It is of great significance to analyze and understand the situation of national defense expenditure and the relationship between national defense expenditure and economic growth, which is of great significance to the formulation of national defense policy and the overall planning of national defense expenditure. This paper focuses on the characteristics of China's defense expenditure and its relationship with economic growth. Firstly, the fluctuation of defense expenditure (including positive growth and negative growth) is divided into two categories by using the nonlinear Markov transformation model. By studying the rate of change in different periods by using the state transition matrix, this paper analyzes the growth situation in different periods and the factors affecting national defense expenditure in that period, and investigates the characteristics of the changes in national defense expenditure in China. Secondly, this paper studies and analyzes the influence of defense expenditure on economic growth by means of three department model derivation and analysis, cointegration analysis, a mathematical model analysis and simulation, respectively, through theoretical derivation, model establishment, data simulation, empirical analysis, etc. Relevant conclusions and other steps to draw the basic conclusions and based on the relevant comments and suggestions. Further, through this study, we hope that the relevant conclusions can provide some theoretical basis for the coordinated development of national defense construction and economic construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:武漢科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F124;E232;F224

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