本文選題：信用擴張 + 內(nèi)部失衡　； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文從理論和歷史事實出發(fā)，立足于從實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部的失衡來考察信用擴張對實體經(jīng)濟所造成的負面影響。理論上，本文詳細解讀了馬克思主義以及西方經(jīng)濟學主要流派的理論體系中對信用擴張和經(jīng)濟失衡的相關方面所進行的分析，在明確了信用擴張可能會造成實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部失衡的基礎上，綜合各方理論，形成了信用擴張造成實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部總量與結構失衡的分析框架，并分析了信用擴張可能造成實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部失衡的各種傳導機制。第一，信用擴張通過直接影響總需求而造成實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部失衡；第二，信用擴張造成金融市場的不穩(wěn)定，而導致實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部失衡。在理論分析之后，本文還基于中國經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)實，在前文所建立的理論分析框架下，分析了中國貨幣當局實行信用擴張帶來中國實體經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部失衡的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象，并利用中國宏觀經(jīng)濟的實際數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證分析。分析采用了計量經(jīng)濟學中常用的VAR模型，對中國金融機構信貸增長、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、以及投資消費貢獻比例數(shù)據(jù)進行建模，并進行脈沖相應分析，證實了偏離信貸增長潛在路徑的人為信用擴張會造成GDP增長偏離潛在增長路徑的高漲，從而導致需求超過供給，形成經(jīng)濟總量失衡，同時也會造成投資消費貢獻比率偏離潛在增長趨勢的升高，這意味著帶來了內(nèi)需結構變化而結構性失衡。此外，，本文還討論了在中國現(xiàn)有金融體系下，信用擴張造成金融體系不穩(wěn)定而導致經(jīng)濟失衡的可能性。基于實證分析的結論，本文提出了兩點政策建議：第一，避免過度信用擴張，同時，經(jīng)濟困難時期的信用擴張最好與擴大基礎建設為主的財政政策相配合；第二，加強消費金融制度的建設，使得消費與投資能夠在信用擴張的過程中平衡發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:This paper, based on the theoretical and historical facts, based on the imbalance in the real economy, examines the negative effects of credit expansion on the real economy. In theory, this article explains in detail the analysis of the related aspects of credit expansion and economic imbalances in the theoretical system of Marx and the main schools of western economics. On the basis of the fact that the credit expansion may cause the internal imbalance of the real economy, the comprehensive parties theory has formed the analysis framework of the unbalance between the total and the structure of the real economy caused by the credit expansion, and analyses the various transmission mechanisms that the credit expansion may cause the internal imbalance in the real economy. First, the credit expansion has direct influence on the general economy. The demand causes the internal imbalance of the real economy; second, the credit expansion causes the instability of the financial market, which leads to the internal imbalance of the real economy. After the theoretical analysis, this paper also is based on the economic reality of China. Under the theoretical analysis framework established in the previous article, the Chinese currency authorities have carried out credit expansion to bring the real economy into China's real economy. The imbalance of the economic phenomenon, and using the actual data of the Chinese macro-economy to carry out an empirical analysis. The analysis adopted the VAR model commonly used in econometrics, modeling the credit growth, GDP, and investment consumption contribution ratio of the Chinese financial institutions, and carried out a corresponding pulse analysis, which confirmed the deviation from the credit growth. The potential path of human credit expansion will cause the GDP growth to deviate from the potential growth path, which leads to the excess demand, the imbalance of the total economic total, and the increase of the investment consumption contribution ratio that deviates from the potential growth trend, which means the structural imbalance of domestic demand structure. In addition, this paper also discusses the structural imbalance. Under the existing financial system in China, the credit expansion has caused the instability of the financial system and the possibility of economic imbalances. Based on the conclusion of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward two policy suggestions: first, avoid excessive credit expansion, and the credit expansion in economic difficulties should be matched with the fiscal policy based on the expansion of the basic construction. The second is to strengthen the construction of consumer financial system, so that consumption and investment can be balanced in the process of credit expansion.

【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832;F124

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 潘敏;繆海斌;;銀行信貸與宏觀經(jīng)濟波動:2003—2009[J];財貿(mào)研究;2010年04期

2 易憲容;;世界經(jīng)濟問題根在無限信用擴張——從最近歐洲的主權債務危機談起[J];數(shù)據(jù);2010年07期

3 樊綱;;論均衡、非均衡及其可持續(xù)性問題[J];經(jīng)濟研究;1991年07期

4 瞿強;資產(chǎn)價格泡沫與信用擴張[J];金融研究;2005年03期

5 瞿強;;經(jīng)濟波動:附加信用的結構性解釋[J];金融研究;2009年01期

6 顧鈺民;;用馬克思主義理論科學闡釋金融危機[J];馬克思主義研究;2009年01期

7 王軍;;新奧地利經(jīng)濟學派對經(jīng)濟危機的反思與啟示[J];商業(yè)時代;2009年20期

8 李小龍;余宇新;;地方政府投資、信貸擴張與通脹關系實證研究[J];商業(yè)時代;2012年12期

9 袁志剛;;新的歷史起點:中國經(jīng)濟的非均衡表現(xiàn)與走勢[J];學術月刊;2008年11期

10 呂介民;;實際季度GDP指數(shù)和季度CPI指數(shù)的測算[J];中國統(tǒng)計;2012年03期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 陳曉靜;中國消費信貸研究[D];復旦大學;2004年

本文編號：1802912