本文選題：人口流動 + 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展�。� 參考：《天津財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：建國以來,人口問題一直是困擾中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要因素,而隨著改革開放的推進,城市工業(yè)化的發(fā)展,人口大規(guī)模的流動也越來越深刻地影響著中國經(jīng)濟社會的變革。天津市作為中國四大直轄市之一,被定義為環(huán)渤海經(jīng)濟圈的中心,在北方有及其重要的經(jīng)濟地位。在這種背景下,將管理學、數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)引進到天津市人口流動的研究中,分析人口流動與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關(guān)系,探討流動人口規(guī)模發(fā)展趨勢,對天津市流動人口的管理具有現(xiàn)實意義。 本文主要做了兩方面的工作：首先根據(jù)天津市經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)(生產(chǎn)總值)、流動人口數(shù)據(jù)、總?cè)丝跀?shù)據(jù),利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型,分析了天津市流動人口數(shù)量、總?cè)丝跀?shù)量對天津市生產(chǎn)總值的關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)。結(jié)果顯示流動人口數(shù)量與生產(chǎn)總值的關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)較高,并且要高于總?cè)丝跀?shù)量與生產(chǎn)總值的關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)。說明天津市經(jīng)濟的高速發(fā)展與人口流動有較大關(guān)系,人口流動促進了天津市的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。基于上述結(jié)論,第二項工作即通過數(shù)據(jù)挖掘模型預(yù)測未來天津市人口流動的規(guī)模,并依據(jù)此預(yù)測結(jié)果,分析將會對天津的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來什么樣的影響,并提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。在對人口流動規(guī)模進行預(yù)測時,運用了兩種不同的預(yù)測方法,第一種是Logistic曲線模型,分別采用高、中、低三種方案進行擬合,得到高方案的擬合效果相對較好,預(yù)測到2030年天津市流動人口數(shù)量將達到498萬人,并達到飽和,不再增長。第二種方法是基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的預(yù)測模型。通過神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)128次的訓練和學習,期望誤差達到合理范圍,得到所要建立的預(yù)測神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。預(yù)測結(jié)果到2020年天津的流動人口達到531萬人,并在2021年首次出現(xiàn)下降。比較兩種模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果相對誤差,BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型誤差相對較小,適合作為天津市人口流動規(guī)模的預(yù)測模型。 最后針對人口流動規(guī)模的預(yù)測結(jié)果,在戶籍制度改革、加強社會保障、打造濱海新區(qū)為吸引流動人口試驗區(qū)等方面對天津市的人口流動管理提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, population problem has been an important factor puzzling China's economic development. With the development of reform and opening up, the development of urban industrialization and the large-scale population flow, the economic and social changes in China have been more and more deeply affected. As one of the four municipalities directly under the Central Government of China, Tianjin is defined as the center of the economic circle around the Bohai Sea, and has an important economic status in the north. In this context, the management and data mining techniques are introduced into the study of population mobility in Tianjin, and the relationship between population mobility and economic development is analyzed, and the development trend of floating population scale is discussed. It has practical significance to the management of floating population in Tianjin. This paper mainly does two aspects of work: firstly, according to Tianjin economic data (GDP, floating population data, total population data, the use of grey correlation model, the number of Tianjin floating population analysis, The correlation coefficient of the total population quantity to the gross product of Tianjin. The results show that the correlation coefficient between the number of floating population and GDP is higher than that of total population and GDP. It shows that the rapid development of Tianjin's economy is closely related to population flow, which promotes the economic development of Tianjin. Based on the above conclusion, the second work is to predict the population flow scale of Tianjin through data mining model, and based on the prediction results, the paper analyzes what kind of impact will be brought to Tianjin's economic development, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. In forecasting population flow scale, two different forecasting methods are used. The first is the Logistic curve model, which uses three schemes, high, middle and low, respectively. It is predicted that the floating population in Tianjin will reach 4.98 million by 2030, reaching saturation and no longer increasing. The second method is based on BP neural network prediction model. Through 128 times of training and learning of neural network, the expected error reaches a reasonable range, and the predictive neural network model is established. Tianjin's migrant population will reach 5.31 million by 2020 and will decline for the first time in 2021. Comparing the relative error between the two models the model error of BP neural network is relatively small which is suitable for the prediction of population flow scale in Tianjin. Finally, according to the forecast results of population mobility scale, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on Tianjin population mobility management in the aspects of household registration system reform, strengthening social security, building Binhai New area to attract floating population experimental area and so on.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;C924.2

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