本文選題：生態(tài)要素 + 可持續(xù)發(fā)展��； 參考：《天津理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：環(huán)境與發(fā)展是社會發(fā)展的永恒話題。實施可持續(xù)發(fā)展必然將依托某一具體區(qū)域，區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展作為理論研究和實證研究的紐帶，一直是可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究領(lǐng)域的難點和熱點。目前，國內(nèi)外對區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究仍處于研究階段，如何定量的對可持續(xù)發(fā)展進行科學(xué)評價分析，還沒有一套被廣泛接受的方法或模型。 本文首先對區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論和生態(tài)要素論進行綜述，通過收集天津市的基礎(chǔ)資料，對其可持續(xù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行簡要的分析；然后，基于生態(tài)要素分別構(gòu)建了DPSIR模型和生態(tài)效率DEA模型，并結(jié)合天津市2001-2010年十年間的數(shù)據(jù)，，分別運用主成分分析和數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)方法對DPSIR模型和生態(tài)效率DEA模型進行測算；最后，根據(jù)測算結(jié)果對天津市可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力進行分析評價。主要研究內(nèi)容包括： 1.對生態(tài)要素和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論及其評價方法進行綜述，提出了本文所研究的生態(tài)要素的概念，對區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展的研究范圍進行界定以確定研究對象和研究重點，并綜述和總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標(biāo)體系。在此基礎(chǔ)之上，根據(jù)天津市1996-2010年15年期間社會、經(jīng)濟、資源等方面的實際數(shù)據(jù)，分別從人口、社會、經(jīng)濟、生態(tài)要素等四個子系統(tǒng)對天津市可持續(xù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行研究分析，找出其可持續(xù)發(fā)展的有利因素和不利因素。 2.本文將生態(tài)要素引入DPSIR模型，從低碳角度出發(fā)構(gòu)建包含5個系統(tǒng)層、31個基礎(chǔ)指標(biāo)的天津市低碳經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標(biāo)體系，然后運用主成分分析法確定指標(biāo)體系中各指標(biāo)權(quán)重，采用線性加權(quán)法計算2001—2010年天津市低碳經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平綜合指數(shù)值UESDI，并結(jié)合相關(guān)評價標(biāo)準得出天津市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等級，結(jié)果表明近十年來天津市基本處于高碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，其可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力較弱。 3.將生態(tài)要素引入DEA模型，結(jié)合生態(tài)要素效率的特點，構(gòu)建了環(huán)境、資源兩個層面包含能源消耗總量、用水總量、建設(shè)用地面積、就業(yè)人員總數(shù)、廢水排放量、固體廢棄物等基礎(chǔ)指標(biāo)的生態(tài)要素可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標(biāo)體系，根據(jù)2006-2010年全國20個省、市地區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù)，運用C2R、BC2以及SE-DEA模型測算包括天津在內(nèi)的全國20個省、市地區(qū)的生態(tài)效率值，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)天津市生態(tài)效率值排名偏低，其可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力較弱。
[Abstract]:Environment and development are eternal topics of social development. The implementation of sustainable development is bound to rely on a specific region. As a link of theoretical and empirical research, regional sustainable development has always been a difficult and hot spot in the field of sustainable development research. At present, the research on regional sustainable development is still in the research stage at home and abroad. There is no widely accepted method or model for quantitative evaluation and analysis of sustainable development. In this paper, the theory of regional sustainable development and the theory of ecological elements are summarized, and the status quo of sustainable development of Tianjin is analyzed briefly by collecting the basic information of Tianjin. Based on the ecological factors, the DPSIR model and the ecological efficiency DEA model are constructed, and the principal component analysis (PCA) and the data envelopment method are used to calculate the DPSIR model and the ecological efficiency DEA model based on the data of Tianjin from 2001 to 2010. The capacity of sustainable development in Tianjin is evaluated according to the result of calculation. The main research contents include: 1. This paper summarizes the ecological elements, the theory of sustainable development and their evaluation methods, puts forward the concept of ecological elements studied in this paper, and defines the research scope of regional sustainable development in order to determine the research object and focus. The evaluation index system of regional sustainable development at home and abroad is summarized and summarized. On this basis, according to the actual social, economic and resource data of Tianjin during the 15-year period from 1996 to 2010, the present situation of sustainable development in Tianjin is studied and analyzed from the four subsystems of population, society, economy and ecological factors, respectively. Find out its sustainable development of the favorable and negative factors. 2. In this paper, ecological factors are introduced into DPSIR model to construct the evaluation index system of Tianjin low-carbon economy sustainable development, which includes 5 system layers and 31 basic indicators from the point of view of low carbon. Then the principal component analysis method is used to determine the weight of each index in the index system. The comprehensive index value UESDI of sustainable development level of low carbon economy in Tianjin from 2001 to 2010 is calculated by using linear weighting method, and the development grade of low carbon economy in Tianjin is obtained by combining with relevant evaluation criteria. The results show that Tianjin is basically in the development of high carbon economy in recent ten years, and its ability of sustainable development is weak. 3. The ecological elements are introduced into the DEA model, combined with the characteristics of ecological factor efficiency, the environment and the two levels of resources include total energy consumption, total water use, construction land area, total number of people employed and discharge of wastewater. Based on the panel data of 20 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2010, the evaluation index system of ecological factors for sustainable development of basic indicators, such as solid waste, is calculated by using C2RX BC2 and SE-DEA model in 20 provinces in China, including Tianjin. The results show that the ecological efficiency of Tianjin is low and its ability of sustainable development is weak.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X22;F127

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