本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化　切入點：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構合理化　出處：《上海社會科學院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危機之后,美英等發(fā)達國家紛紛重啟再工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略以塑造新型的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構。中國亦在謀求產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構轉(zhuǎn)變以改變自身純粹制造者的角色。面對國際國內(nèi)形勢的變化,工業(yè)基礎雄厚的長三角地區(qū)急需思考如何選擇自身的未來產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展之路。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化將成為其中一個重要考量。在此背景下,本文探討長三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構現(xiàn)狀和演變過程,并且采用面板數(shù)據(jù)和時間序列數(shù)據(jù)分別對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化兩個方面,即產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構合理化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構高度化與經(jīng)濟增長的關系展開實證研究。 對比分析長三角地區(qū)16個核心城市和江浙滬三地的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)果顯示,該地區(qū)增加值總量對于中國經(jīng)濟的影響力和第二、三、一次產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構順序與其一貫基礎雄厚的工業(yè)的密切關系；隸屬于工業(yè)中的制造業(yè)是長三角地區(qū)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)最重要的產(chǎn)業(yè),其中的優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)主要為通信設備、計算機及其他電子設備制造業(yè),交通運輸設備制造業(yè),紡織業(yè);除第三產(chǎn)業(yè)存在同構現(xiàn)象外,長三角的地域鄰近性能夠造就不同地區(qū)聚焦于不同優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè),長三角地區(qū)每個城市均擁有主導制造產(chǎn)業(yè),形成產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)系互動的積極效應；同時,作者還發(fā)現(xiàn)上海和江蘇兩地在合理配置資源優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構方面,顯示出較強的示范效應;最后,對長三角近年來的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構演變分析表明,改革開放以來,第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)輪流助推經(jīng)濟增長,后者有取代前者成為主要動力的趨勢,且整個經(jīng)濟的波動越來越與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)波動契合,較好的詮釋了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構高度化與經(jīng)濟增長的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 實證研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化與經(jīng)濟增長的關系表明,長三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化效果不顯著,沒有形成對經(jīng)濟增長的結(jié)構正效應。首先,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構合理化不足表現(xiàn)為產(chǎn)業(yè)間通過資本和勞動二要素流動沒有實現(xiàn)協(xié)同效果。一方面,基于資本在三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的配置效應視角,第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)均單獨地對經(jīng)濟增長有顯著的促進作用,但是三次產(chǎn)業(yè)問的相互作用,無協(xié)同結(jié)構效應,反而抑制經(jīng)濟的增長或是沒有顯現(xiàn)對于經(jīng)濟增長的效應。另一方面,基于勞動在三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的配置視角,只有第,‘產(chǎn)業(yè)促進經(jīng)濟增長,第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)沒有顯著效果,同時,產(chǎn)業(yè)間的相互作用,亦無協(xié)同結(jié)構效應,或是表現(xiàn)抑制經(jīng)濟增長的效應或是沒有顯示產(chǎn)業(yè)互動對于經(jīng)濟增長的效應。其次,近20年長三角產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構高度化保持穩(wěn)定的向上趨勢。雖然從長期看長三角產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構高度化與經(jīng)濟增長具有協(xié)同均衡關系。但短期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟增長的調(diào)整滯后于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構高度化的調(diào)整,且二者的短期彈性要遠小于長期彈性,表明產(chǎn)業(yè)升升級對經(jīng)濟的助推效應,且短期效應弱于長期效應。
[Abstract]:After the global financial crisis in 2008, developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom have restarted their strategy of reindustrialization to shape a new industrial structure. China is also seeking to transform its industrial structure to change its role as a pure producer. In the face of changes in the international and domestic situation, The Yangtze River Delta, which has a strong industrial foundation, urgently needs to think about how to choose its own future industrial development path. Industrial structure optimization will become one of the important considerations. In this context, this paper discusses the present situation and evolution process of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta region. Using panel data and time series data, the paper makes an empirical study on the two aspects of industrial structure optimization, namely, the rationalization of industrial structure and the relationship between industrial structure elevation and economic growth. The industrial structure of 16 core cities in the Yangtze River Delta region and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shanghai are compared and analyzed. The results show that the total added value of this region has great influence on China's economy and the second and third. The order of the industrial structure of the primary industry is closely related to its well-established industry; the manufacturing industry attached to the industry is the most important industry in the Yangtze River Delta region to create jobs, and the dominant industries are mainly communications equipment. Computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, textile industry; apart from the existence of isomorphism in the tertiary industry, the proximity of the Yangtze River Delta can lead to different regions focusing on different superior industries. Each city in the Yangtze River Delta region has the positive effect of leading manufacturing industry, forming the positive effect of the interaction between industries, at the same time, the author also finds that Shanghai and Jiangsu have a strong demonstration effect in the rational allocation of resources to optimize the industrial structure. Finally, an analysis of the evolution of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta in recent years shows that since the reform and opening up, the second and third industries have alternately boosted economic growth, and the latter has taken the place of the former as the main driving force. And the fluctuation of the whole economy is more and more consistent with the fluctuation of the tertiary industry, which better explains the harmonious development of the industrial structure and the economic growth. The empirical study on the relationship between industrial structure optimization and economic growth shows that the effect of industrial structure optimization in the Yangtze River Delta region is not significant, and it has not formed the structural positive effect on economic growth. The lack of rationalization of industrial structure shows that there is no synergistic effect between industries through the flow of capital and labor. On the one hand, based on the allocation effect of capital in three industries, the first, second, The three industries have a significant promoting effect on economic growth alone, but the interaction of the three industries has no synergistic structure effect, on the contrary, it inhibits the economic growth or does not show the effect on the economic growth. Based on the collocation of labor in three industries, only the first industry promotes economic growth, while the second and third industries have no significant effect. At the same time, there is no synergistic structure effect between industries. Either to show the effect of restraining economic growth or not to show the effect of industrial interaction on economic growth. Secondly, In the past 20 years, the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta has maintained a steady upward trend. Although there is a synergistic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure elevation and economic growth in the long run, the adjustment of economic growth lags behind the industrial integration in the short term. The adjustment of construction and elevation, The short term elasticity of both is much smaller than that of long term, which indicates that the promotion effect of industrial upgrading is weaker than that of long term.
【學位授予單位】：上海社會科學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F279.2

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