本文選題：工業(yè)化　切入點(diǎn)：城鎮(zhèn)化　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：針對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化嚴(yán)重滯后于工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化的現(xiàn)實(shí)，黨的十七屆五中全會(huì)提出：“在工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化深入發(fā)展中同步推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化�！蓖酵七M(jìn)“三化”是現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展的客觀規(guī)律，是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展到新階段的必然要求，是克服中等收入陷阱的必然選擇，也是全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)的重大而緊迫的任務(wù)。隨著國(guó)家西部大開(kāi)發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施，特別是關(guān)中-天水經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的確立，陜西在國(guó)家區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的戰(zhàn)略位置愈加重要。近年來(lái)，盡管陜西省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)取得顯著發(fā)展，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中不平衡、不協(xié)調(diào)、不可持續(xù)的矛盾仍然比較突出，工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展水平在區(qū)域間不均衡。由于“三化”之間相互影響、相輔相成，任何一方面的“短腿”都會(huì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的大局。因此，通過(guò)理論分析和實(shí)證研究，揭示陜西省“三化”協(xié)同發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、存在問(wèn)題，探尋其實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑，對(duì)確保陜西省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)健康持續(xù)發(fā)展，具有重大意義。 本文在借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用Johansen協(xié)整理論及誤差修正模型實(shí)證分析了陜西省年1991至2010年工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化之間的長(zhǎng)短期關(guān)系。而后將工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化視為“三化”系統(tǒng)中的三個(gè)子系統(tǒng)，運(yùn)用DEA方法計(jì)算三個(gè)系統(tǒng)之間的兩兩關(guān)系以及三者間的協(xié)調(diào)度與發(fā)展度。根據(jù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度計(jì)算結(jié)果及其分級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，結(jié)合各地市（區(qū)）經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展實(shí)際情況，分別對(duì)各地市（區(qū)）的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)和分析。最后，論文在借鑒發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家“三化”協(xié)同發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，從省域?qū)用婧蛥^(qū)域?qū)用嫣綄り兾鲗?shí)現(xiàn)“三化”協(xié)同發(fā)展的路徑。研究的主要結(jié)論有： 第一，1991年到2010年，陜西省工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化之間存在長(zhǎng)期協(xié)整關(guān)系且呈同向發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，在短期內(nèi)工業(yè)化水平和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化水平的提升對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提升具有阻滯效應(yīng)。脈沖響應(yīng)分析表明：工業(yè)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化的正向沖擊較小且不能持續(xù)；方差分析結(jié)果表明：相對(duì)而言，，工業(yè)化對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的貢獻(xiàn)率較大，比農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化更能推動(dòng)城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高。 第二，2011年陜西省“三化”協(xié)同發(fā)展度的平均值為0.782，處于中級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平，但區(qū)域發(fā)展的差異較大，發(fā)展不均衡。陜西省工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化處于瀕臨失調(diào)階段，工業(yè)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化處于輕度失調(diào)階段，城鎮(zhèn)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化處于勉強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)階段。 第三，從省域?qū)用鎭?lái)說(shuō)，應(yīng)通過(guò)適時(shí)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，堅(jiān)持走新型工業(yè)化道路，完善城鎮(zhèn)體系，強(qiáng)化現(xiàn)代化農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃與政策，促進(jìn)陜西“三化”協(xié)同發(fā)展。就不同發(fā)展類型區(qū)域而言，重在提升“短板”，發(fā)揮比較優(yōu)勢(shì)，找到符合區(qū)域的發(fā)展路徑。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that agricultural modernization seriously lags behind industrialization and urbanization, the Fifth Plenary session of the 17 CPC Central Committee put forward the following: "in industrialization, It is the objective law of modernization development, the inevitable requirement of our country's economic and social development to the new stage, and the inevitable choice to overcome the middle income trap. It is also an important and urgent task for building a well-off society in an all-round way. With the implementation of the national strategy of developing the western region, especially the establishment of the Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone, Shaanxi's strategic position in the development of the national regional economy has become increasingly important. In spite of the remarkable economic and social development in Shaanxi Province, the imbalance, uncoordinated, and unsustainable contradictions in economic development are still quite prominent. Industrialization, urbanization, The level of agricultural modernization development is not balanced among regions. Because the "three modernizations" affect each other and complement each other, the "short legs" of any aspect will affect the overall situation of economic and social development. Therefore, through theoretical analysis and empirical research, It is of great significance to reveal the present situation and existing problems of the "three modernizations" in Shaanxi Province, and to explore the way to realize them, which is of great significance to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the economy and society in Shaanxi Province. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term and short-term relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province from 1991 to 2010 by using the Johansen co-arrangement and error correction model to analyze the relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Urbanization and agricultural modernization are regarded as three subsystems in the "three modernizations" system. The DEA method is used to calculate the relationship between the three systems and the degree of coordination and development among the three systems. Combined with the actual situation of the economic and social development of each prefecture (district), the paper evaluates and analyzes the coordinated development of each prefecture (district). Finally, the paper draws lessons from the experience of the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" in developed countries. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) to explore the path to realize the "three modernizations" coordinated development in Shaanxi from the provincial and regional levels. First, from 1991 to 2010, there was a long-term cointegration relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province. In the short term, the improvement of industrialization level and agricultural modernization level has a blocking effect on the improvement of urbanization level. The impulse response analysis shows that the positive impact of industrialization and agricultural modernization on urbanization is small and unsustainable. The results of variance analysis show that the contribution of industrialization to the development of urbanization is relatively large, which can promote the improvement of urbanization level more than agricultural modernization. Second, in 2011, the average degree of "three modernizations" coordinated development in Shaanxi Province is 0.782, which is in the intermediate level of coordinated development, but the regional development is quite different and the development is not balanced. The industrialization and urbanization of Shaanxi Province are on the verge of maladjustment. Industrialization and agricultural modernization are in a slight imbalance stage, urbanization and agricultural modernization are barely coordinated. Third, at the provincial level, we should, through timely adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, adhere to the new road of industrialization, perfect the urban system, and strengthen the planning and policies for the development of modern agriculture. In terms of different development types, it is important to promote the "short board", give play to the comparative advantage, and find the development path that accords with the region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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