本文關(guān)鍵詞： 消費需求 影響因素 因素結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展取得了舉世矚目的成就,經(jīng)濟總量不斷擴大,綜合國力逐漸增強。伴隨著經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和城鄉(xiāng)居民收入水平的提高,人民生活從貧困步入了小康和富裕行列,居民消費水平不斷提高、消費規(guī)模也不斷擴大。但與世界上發(fā)達(dá)國家相比,我國人均GDP水平和居民消費水平都還很低；與經(jīng)濟增長速度相比,居民消費的增速還明顯偏慢。同時,由于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的不平衡和城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)的存在,不同地區(qū)、不同群體、不同行業(yè)以及城鄉(xiāng)之間的消費水平還有很大的差距。 1998年亞洲金融危機和2008年全球金融危機的爆發(fā),出口美國、日本和歐盟等經(jīng)濟發(fā)達(dá)國家的外需乏力,我國的宏觀經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)出了總需求不足特別是消費需求不足的特征,經(jīng)濟增速明顯減退。 1998年下半年開始,我國實施了積極的財政政策和適度寬松的貨幣政策,2007年,提出了經(jīng)濟增長方式由“主要依靠投資、出口拉動”向“依靠消費、投資、出口協(xié)調(diào)拉動”的轉(zhuǎn)變。2009年,我國出臺了“擴內(nèi)需、保增長”的一攬子刺激計劃,擴大投資4萬億。同時,著力刺激國內(nèi)需求特別是消費需求�！笆濉币�(guī)劃更是明確了擴大消費需求是我國現(xiàn)階段乃至今后相當(dāng)長時期的戰(zhàn)略方針和基本立足點,是拉動我國經(jīng)濟快速增長、和諧社會建設(shè)的根本途徑。 本文從我國目前消費需求不足的現(xiàn)實狀況出發(fā),從宏觀和微觀結(jié)合的角度探求影響消費需求的因素結(jié)構(gòu)。研究整體思路以“存在問題——影響分析——對策建議”為基本路線,綜合了消費經(jīng)濟學(xué)、消費社會學(xué)、計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)和人口學(xué)的基本理論知識,實現(xiàn)比較深入地剖析消費需求影響因素的研究目的。 本文首先闡述了馬克思主義消費理論、西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)消費理論、市場經(jīng)濟條件下消費需求實現(xiàn)理論的主要內(nèi)容,對已有的國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)研究成果進行歸納總結(jié)。進而分析了我國消費需求的現(xiàn)狀特征,對消費需求的影響因素進行了結(jié)構(gòu)化分類,對影響因素的作用機理進行了數(shù)理推導(dǎo),建立了多因素綜合影響的計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)模型。作為研究的結(jié)果,對擴大消費需求的對策措施進行了總結(jié)。全文共分六章進行論述。 第1章導(dǎo)論。闡述研究選題的背景與意義,介紹了研究方法和研究主要內(nèi)容,總結(jié)了研究的創(chuàng)新之處以及存在的不足。 第2章研究基礎(chǔ)理論概述。對研究的相關(guān)概念和基礎(chǔ)理論進行了簡要概述。具體內(nèi)容是界定消費需求和結(jié)構(gòu)分析的內(nèi)涵,對馬克思主義消費理論、西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)消費理論、市場經(jīng)濟條件下消費需求實現(xiàn)理論進行了簡單的介紹和梳理,歸納了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對消費需求及影響因素研究的相關(guān)學(xué)術(shù)觀點。 第3章我國消費需求的現(xiàn)狀特征。分析了我國消費需求的目前狀況：從縱向歷史變化來看,社會總需求存在著國內(nèi)需求與國外需求、投資需求與消費需求、政府消費與居民消費、城鎮(zhèn)消費與農(nóng)村消費的結(jié)構(gòu)失衡。從橫向國際比較來看,我國的消費率和居民消費率還明顯偏低。 第4章消費需求影響因素的結(jié)構(gòu)分類。影響消費需求的宏觀和微觀因素種類繁多,將各種社會經(jīng)濟因素進行綜合分析和結(jié)構(gòu)化分類。認(rèn)為影響消費需求的因素是由消費主體、支付能力、消費意愿和實現(xiàn)環(huán)境等四個方面構(gòu)成的一個有機整體結(jié)構(gòu)。具體結(jié)構(gòu)包括： 消費主體因素。作為消費主體的人口,其規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)直接影響著消費需求。人口規(guī)模所表現(xiàn)出的人口數(shù)量直接決定消費的規(guī)模和潛在容量。人口結(jié)構(gòu)主要分析人口的年齡構(gòu)成、人口在地理上的分布和密集程度等,人口結(jié)構(gòu)對消費需求的結(jié)構(gòu)和市場格局產(chǎn)生深刻影響。 支付能力因素。支付能力表現(xiàn)在絕對能力和相對能力兩個方面,絕對能力是由消費主體的收入水平?jīng)Q定的,相對能力由收入的差異程度——收入差距來反映,支付能力的這兩方面狀況都取決于收入分配格局。 消費意愿因素。由于受價值觀念、宗教信仰、風(fēng)俗習(xí)慣等消費文化觀念的影響,即使在同等收入條件下,消費主體的消費意愿也會有著很大的差異。同時,消費意愿還取決于不確定性風(fēng)險下人們對未來收入支出的預(yù)期。 實現(xiàn)環(huán)境因素。消費需求是消費意愿的客觀實現(xiàn),實現(xiàn)過程要受到自然、經(jīng)濟和社會等客觀條件的制約。這三個方面的因素主要表現(xiàn)為自然資源稟賦,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),消費政策和法治環(huán)境等。 第5章消費需求影響因素的作用機理。首先,通過比較嚴(yán)密的數(shù)理推導(dǎo),分析人口的年齡構(gòu)成和地理分布、收入差距、收入支出預(yù)期、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等單因素對消費需求的作用機理。然后,基于消費需求影響因素結(jié)構(gòu),建立了多因素綜合影響的計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)模型,并用實證數(shù)據(jù)對計量模型進行檢驗。結(jié)果表明模型均較好地擬合了居民消費率變量,使得影響因素結(jié)構(gòu)分類的合理性得到一定程度的支持。 第6章擴大消費需求的對策措施。在影響因素結(jié)構(gòu)分類的基礎(chǔ)上,明確了擴大消費需求對策措施的具體內(nèi)容：調(diào)整消費主體是擴大消費需求的基礎(chǔ),提高支付能力是擴大消費需求的核心,增強消費意愿是擴大消費需求的關(guān)鍵,優(yōu)化實現(xiàn)環(huán)境是擴大消費需求的保障。 擴大消費需求對于我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文的創(chuàng)新點主要體現(xiàn)在以下四個方面： 1.比較全面地分析了影響消費需求的社會經(jīng)濟因素,將各類因素進行了結(jié)構(gòu)化的分類,分為消費主體、支付能力、消費意愿和實現(xiàn)環(huán)境等四個方面。 2.強調(diào)了消費主體因素對消費需求具有的重大影響,把人口政策、老齡社會和人口分布作為影響消費需求的重要方面來進行研究。 3.分析了人口的年齡構(gòu)成和地理分布、收入差距、收入支出預(yù)期、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等因素影響消費需求的作用機理,建立了影響消費率的多因素綜合影響的計量模型。 4.明確了擴大消費需求對策措施的具體內(nèi)容：調(diào)整消費主體、提高支付能力、增強消費意愿和優(yōu)化實現(xiàn)環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements, the economy continues to expand, the comprehensive national strength gradually. With the development of economy and the income of urban and rural residents to raise the level of people's life into a well-off and rich from poverty, consumption level has been constantly improved, the consumption scale has been expanded. But compared with the world in developed countries, China's per capita GDP level and consumption levels are very low; compared with the speed of economic growth, consumption growth is obviously too slow. At the same time, because the level of economic development and the imbalance of the two structure in urban and rural areas exist in different regions, different groups, between different industries and urban and rural consumption level there is a big gap.
In 1998, the Asian financial crisis and the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the export demand of the developed countries such as the United States, Japan and the European Union was weak. China's macro-economy showed the characteristics of insufficient total demand, especially the lack of consumer demand, and the economic growth rate was significantly reduced.
The second half of 1998, China implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2007, put forward the mode of economic growth by relying mainly on investment and export led to rely on consumption, investment, exports "change.2009 years, China introduced the" expanding domestic demand growth. "The stimulus package, the expansion of investment 4 trillion. At the same time, efforts to stimulate domestic demand, especially consumer demand." 12th Five-Year "plan is clear to expand consumer demand is a strategic policy of our country at present and for quite a long time and the foothold, stimulating the rapid growth of China's economy, the fundamental way of building a harmonious society.
This article from the reality of China's current situation of insufficient consumer demand of factor structure exploration from the macro and micro angle of consumer demand. On the whole idea of the basic line with "problems -- Analysis of the influence of countermeasures, comprehensive consumer economics, sociology of consumption, the basic theoretical knowledge of econometrics and demography. To achieve more in-depth analysis of the objective factors on the impact of consumer demand.
This paper expounds Marx's theory of consumption, the consumption theory of western economics, the main content of theory under the condition of market economy, consumer demand, to the domestic and foreign academic studies are summarized. Then the current characteristics of the consumption demand of our country is analyzed, the influencing factors of the consumption demand of structured classification, mechanism of effect the factors of mathematical derivation, established the econometric model of multi factors. As a result of the research on the Countermeasures of expanding consumption demand are summarized. The thesis consists of six chapters.
The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the research topic, introduces the research methods and main contents, and summarizes the innovation and shortcomings of the research.
The second chapter studies. An overview of the theory basis of concepts related to the research and basic theory are summarized. The specific content is the definition and structure analysis of consumer demand, on Marx's theory of consumption, the consumption theory of western economics, the theory introduces the market economy under the conditions of consumer demand, summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars the influence of consumer demand and related factors on the academic point of view.
The third chapter present characteristics of the consumption demand of our country. This article analyzes the current situation of China's consumption demand: from historical changes, social total demand the existence of domestic and external demand, investment demand and consumption demand, government consumption and consumption structure, urban consumption and rural consumption imbalance from the horizontal international comparison. In China, the consumption rate and the household consumption rate is significantly lower.
The fourth chapter structure classification of influencing factors of consumer demand. Effects of different kinds of macro and micro factors of consumer demand there will be all kinds of social and economic factors were analyzed and categorized. Factors that influence the consumption demand is the main consumption, ability to pay, an organic whole structure four aspects of consumption demand and the environment for the realization of including the specific structure:
The main consumption factors. As the main consumer population, its scale and structure directly affects consumer demand. Population size of the population showed directly determines the size and potential capacity of consumption. The main population structure analysis of population age structure, population distribution in geography and intensive degree, have a profound impact on the population structure and structure the pattern of the market of consumer demand.
The ability to pay. The ability to pay factors in two aspects of absolute and relative ability of ability, ability is determined by the absolute income level of consumption of the main body, the relative ability by income differences: the income gap reflects the ability to pay the two status depends on the income distribution pattern.
Consumer willingness factors. Due to the values, religious beliefs, customs and other effects of consumer culture, even in the same income conditions, the main consumer consumption will also have great differences. At the same time, consumption will also depend on the risk of uncertainty of expected future income and expenditure.
To achieve environmental factors, consumption demand is the objective realization of consumption intention. The realization process is restricted by natural, economic and social objective conditions. These three factors are mainly natural resource endowment, infrastructure and industrial structure, consumption policy and rule of law environment.
The mechanism of the influence of the fifth chapter of consumer demand factors. Firstly, through rigorous mathematical derivation and analysis of population age structure and geographical distribution, income gap, income and expenditure expectations, the mechanism of single factor of industrial structure on consumption demand. Then, based on the influence factors of consumer demand, has established econometric model comprehensive influence the factors, and the econometric models to test with empirical data. The results show that the model had better fitting the consumption rate variable, makes the classification factors of the rationality of the structure to a certain degree of support.
The sixth chapter measures to expand consumer demand. Based on the classification of influencing factors on the structure, the specific content of clear measures to expand consumption demand: the adjustment of consumption subject is the foundation to expand consumer demand, improve the ability to pay is the core to expand consumer demand, enhance consumer willingness is the key to expand consumption demand, optimize environment is expanding consumer demand for security.
The expansion of consumer demand is of great significance for the economic and social development of our country. The innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in the following four aspects:
1., a comprehensive analysis of the social and economic factors that influence consumer demand is made. Structural factors are categorization, and they are divided into four aspects: the consumer body, the payment capacity, the willingness to consume and the environment to achieve.
2., we emphasized the major impact of consumption factors on consumption demand. We studied population policy, aging society and population distribution as an important aspect of consumption demand.
3., we analyzed the mechanism of influencing the consumption demand, including the age composition and geographical distribution, income gap, income and expenditure expectation, industrial structure and other factors.
4. the specific content of the measures to expand consumption demand is clarified: to adjust the consumer body, to improve the capacity of payment, to increase the willingness to consume and to optimize the environment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1

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