本文關(guān)鍵詞： 聯(lián)立方程模型 加工貿(mào)易 其他貿(mào)易 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值　出處：《統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策》2014年19期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章利用1981~2012年統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),把外需分為加工貿(mào)易和其他貿(mào)易兩部分,分別考察各自歷年的進(jìn)口出口對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)度影響。本文利用小樣本因果關(guān)系檢測(cè)來確定各經(jīng)濟(jì)變量對(duì)GDP的因果關(guān)系,以及變量之間自身的因果關(guān)系,據(jù)此建立聯(lián)立方程模型。模型表明:整體來看,在2005年以前,加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口的貢獻(xiàn)度是超過其他貿(mào)易進(jìn)口貢獻(xiàn)度;在2005年之后,其他貿(mào)易進(jìn)口的貢獻(xiàn)度大于加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口。加工貿(mào)易出口和其他貿(mào)易出口持相反的趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data from 1981 to 2012, the paper divides the external demand into two parts: processing trade and other trade. In this paper, we use small sample causality test to determine the causality of each economic variable to GDP, and the causality between the variables. The model shows that, on the whole, before 2005, the contribution of processing trade imports was higher than that of other trade imports; after 2005, the contribution of processing trade imports was higher than that of other trade imports. The contribution of other trade imports is greater than that of processing trade imports.
【作者單位】： 中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)與數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：全國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)科研計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(LX2011LZ016) 中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)研究創(chuàng)新新科目(2013B1903)
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1
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本文編號(hào)：1499189