本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi) 醫(yī)療支出 教育支出 購(gòu)房支出 保障體制　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展,取得了舉世矚目的成就。然而,近年來(lái),增長(zhǎng)對(duì)投資和出口的過(guò)度依賴,使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入深層次的矛盾之中——投資過(guò)度引發(fā)資產(chǎn)泡沫,但緊縮銀根勢(shì)必抑制投資降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增速；長(zhǎng)期順差帶來(lái)人民幣升值壓力,而放任人民幣升值必然影響出口。能夠推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的,似乎只�！跋M(fèi)”這一駕馬車。不過(guò),中國(guó)的消費(fèi)率自20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)就持續(xù)下降,作為中國(guó)最有消費(fèi)潛力的群體——城鎮(zhèn)居民——也缺乏消費(fèi)熱情。尋找有效提振消費(fèi),特別是城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的策略,也因此具有極強(qiáng)的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 與近30年來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)率下降形成鮮明對(duì)比的是,城鎮(zhèn)居民承擔(dān)的醫(yī)療、教育支出以及面對(duì)的住房售價(jià)持續(xù)上升。醫(yī)療、教育、購(gòu)房支出壓力不斷增長(zhǎng),是否導(dǎo)致居民不敢消費(fèi)、不愿消費(fèi)?是否是抑制居民消費(fèi)的重要因素?本文將圍繞這一主題展開研究。 研究方法上,本文一是通過(guò)回顧近現(xiàn)代主流消費(fèi)理論和對(duì)中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)特征的分析,定性地分析醫(yī)療、教育、購(gòu)房支出壓力增長(zhǎng)對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響；二是利用近30年來(lái)宏觀統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,研究模型源于莫迪利安尼等人上世紀(jì)50年代提出的生命周期消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型,但根據(jù)中國(guó)國(guó)情和研究需要對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了修正。 本文研究的主要結(jié)論如下：首先,總城鎮(zhèn)居民整體看,醫(yī)療、教育、購(gòu)房支出壓力增長(zhǎng)對(duì)消費(fèi)均存在負(fù)面影響,是抑制居民消費(fèi)的重要因素；其次,對(duì)不同收入層次居民而言,醫(yī)療、教育支出對(duì)各收入層次居民的消費(fèi)都存在負(fù)面影響,但高收入層次居民消費(fèi)受醫(yī)療、教育支出的影響不明顯,中低收入層次居民消費(fèi)受到的影響明顯,其影響程度隨收入的降低而增強(qiáng)；第三,房?jī)r(jià)的上漲對(duì)不同收入層次居民而言,有著不同的意義,對(duì)于高收入層次居民而言,房?jī)r(jià)上漲意味著財(cái)富增加,對(duì)其消費(fèi)有正向的推動(dòng),即產(chǎn)生了財(cái)富效應(yīng),而對(duì)中低收入層次居民而言,房?jī)r(jià)上漲意味著購(gòu)房支出壓力的增加,對(duì)消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。 最后,本文在實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)提振消費(fèi)、擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需提出政策性建議：首先是繼續(xù)努力增加居民收入,要確保居民實(shí)際收入的增長(zhǎng)幅度超過(guò)醫(yī)療、教育和購(gòu)房支出壓力的增幅,確保收入增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)的消費(fèi)紅利不被后者抵消；其次是參照海外經(jīng)驗(yàn),建立和完善醫(yī)療、教育、住房保障機(jī)制,通過(guò)政府“托底”,消除居民消費(fèi)的后顧之憂。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed at a high speed and has made remarkable achievements. However, in recent years, growth has become too dependent on investment and exports. It makes the Chinese economy fall into a deep contradiction: excessive investment leads to asset bubbles, but tight monetary policy is bound to restrain investment and reduce economic growth; The long-term surplus puts pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, and allowing it to rise will inevitably affect exports. The only thing that will drive China's economy to continue to grow healthily and steadily seems to be "consumption". China's consumption rate has been falling since 1990s, and as the most potential consumer group in China-urban residents-also lack the enthusiasm to find ways to effectively boost consumption. Especially, the strategy of urban residents'consumption is of great theoretical and practical significance. In contrast to the decline in the consumption rate of urban residents in the past 30 years, the expenditure on health care, education and housing prices of urban residents continues to rise. Does it mean that residents do not dare to spend or do not want to spend? Is it an important factor to restrain residents' consumption? This paper will focus on this subject. In terms of research methods, the first part of this paper is to analyze qualitatively the influence of the pressure growth of medical treatment, education and housing expenditure on the consumption by reviewing the modern mainstream consumption theory and analyzing the consumption characteristics of Chinese urban residents. The second is to use the macro statistical data in recent 30 years to carry on the empirical research, the research model is derived from the life cycle consumption function model put forward by Modigliani et al in -50s. However, the model is modified according to China's national conditions and research needs. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, the growth of expenditure pressure on health care, education and housing purchase has a negative impact on consumption, which is an important factor to restrain residents' consumption; Secondly, for residents of different income levels, medical care, education expenditure on the consumption of residents in all income levels have a negative impact, but the high income level residents consumption by medical treatment, education expenditure has no obvious impact. The low and middle income level residents' consumption is affected obviously, its influence degree increases with the decrease of income; Third, the rise of house prices for different income levels of residents, have different significance, for high-income level residents, the rise in house prices means wealth increases, to their consumption has a positive impetus. That is to say, the wealth effect is produced, but for the middle and low income level residents, the rising house price means the increase of the pressure on the purchase of housing, which has a negative impact on the consumption. Finally, on the basis of empirical research, this paper puts forward policy recommendations to boost consumption and expand domestic demand: first of all, we should continue to strive to increase residents' income, to ensure that the real increase of residents' income is greater than that of medical treatment. (B) the increase in pressure on education and home purchases to ensure that the consumer dividend from rising incomes is not offset by the latter; Secondly, referring to overseas experience, we should establish and improve medical, education and housing security mechanisms, and eliminate the worries of residents' consumption through the government.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1

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本文編號(hào)：1458240