發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-18 06:17

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：“中等收入陷阱”：俄羅斯的挑戰(zhàn)與應(yīng)對(duì)　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 俄羅斯 中等收入陷阱 精英治國(guó)模式

【摘要】：2000年至2008年，，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速，GDP增長(zhǎng)率平均為7%，人均GDP由2000年的1775美元上升到2008年的11700美元，成為世界十大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一。但是自2008年金融危機(jī)之后，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度放緩，2010、2011年GDP增長(zhǎng)率為4.3%，低于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的平均值，并且預(yù)期不會(huì)改善。俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)扭曲，嚴(yán)重依賴資源型行業(yè)。同時(shí)國(guó)有制成分極高，難以克服技術(shù)創(chuàng)新瓶頸，面臨增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)型困境。 除經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，俄羅斯社會(huì)、政治方面也不可避免地出現(xiàn)了新的問題。社會(huì)方面：2010年，俄羅斯的基尼系數(shù)為0.421，超過收入分配差距的“警戒線”0.4。政治方面：公民的基本生存問題解決，會(huì)產(chǎn)生更多的民主訴求。隨著中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的興起，這種呼聲會(huì)越來越高。俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、政治方面出現(xiàn)了不好的跡象，已經(jīng)進(jìn)入落入“中等收入陷阱”的危險(xiǎn)期。 為應(yīng)對(duì)“中等收入陷阱”，俄羅斯政府積極制定補(bǔ)充性增長(zhǎng)政策、創(chuàng)新型增長(zhǎng)政策、進(jìn)行民主制度建設(shè)，以維持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的良性循環(huán)。補(bǔ)充性政策的實(shí)施雖然沒有使貧富分化得到最終解決（基尼系數(shù)沒有明顯改善），但是人均收入大幅上升，使民眾分享了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的成果。創(chuàng)新型增長(zhǎng)政策的實(shí)施到目前為止并無明顯效果，民主制度建設(shè)方面則有倒退傾向。 2012年5月7日，普京正式開始了他的第三任期。為應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)，帶領(lǐng)俄羅斯跨越“中等收入陷阱”，普京勾勒出了一個(gè)宏偉議程。由于轉(zhuǎn)型難度較大，俄羅斯跨越陷阱仍需一系列的條件。 本文采用大野健一修正后的精英治國(guó)模式，運(yùn)用跨學(xué)科分析方法，對(duì)俄羅斯“中等收入陷阱”問題進(jìn)行研究。文章分為六個(gè)部分：首先是緒論，主要闡述本文選題背景與意義，研究目標(biāo)和方法，以及國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于“中等收入陷阱”的相關(guān)研究。第一章說明“中等收入陷阱”的分析框架，重點(diǎn)揭示“中等收入陷阱”的涵義、落入原因，以及跨越的條件。第二章主要說明俄羅斯在社會(huì)、政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)方面已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了不好的跡象，有落入“中等收入陷阱”的危險(xiǎn)。第三章則對(duì)俄羅斯為應(yīng)對(duì)“中等收入陷阱”所采取的政策進(jìn)行分析，重點(diǎn)揭示政策效果。第四章借助以上分析，并且根據(jù)普京的競(jìng)選綱領(lǐng)以及采取的政策，重點(diǎn)分析俄羅斯面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。最后為結(jié)語部分，闡述俄羅斯跨越“中等收入陷阱”的條件。
[Abstract]:From 2000 to 2008, Russia's rapid economic growth averaged 7%. The average GDP per capita rose from US $1, 775 in 2000 to US $11700 in 2000. It is one of the top ten economies in the world. But since the financial crisis in 2008, Russia's economic growth has slowed to 2010, with GDP growing at 4.3% in 2011. It is below the average of emerging economies and is not expected to improve. Russia's economy is structurally distorted and heavily dependent on resource-based industries. At the same time, state ownership is extremely high, making it difficult to overcome bottlenecks in technological innovation. Facing the dilemma of growth transformation. In addition to economic aspects, new problems inevitably arise in Russian society and politics. Social aspects: in 2010, Russia's Gini coefficient was 0.421. More than the income distribution gap "warning line" 0.4. political aspects: the basic survival of citizens to solve, will produce more democratic demands. As the rise of the middle class. There are signs of bad economic, social and political problems in Russia that are in danger of falling into the middle income trap. In order to deal with the "middle-income trap", the Russian government has actively formulated supplementary growth policies, innovative growth policies, and the construction of democratic institutions. In order to maintain a virtuous cycle of economic growth and social stability, the implementation of supplementary policies has not resulted in the final settlement of the gap between the rich and the poor (the Gini coefficient has not improved significantly, but the per capita income has risen substantially. The implementation of the innovative growth policy has so far had no obvious effect, and there is a tendency to regress in the construction of democratic institutions. In May 7th 2012, Putin officially began his third term. In order to meet the challenge and lead Russia through the "middle-income trap," Putin outlined a grand agenda, due to the difficulty of transition. Russia still needs a series of conditions to cross the trap. In this paper, the "middle income trap" in Russia is studied by adopting the revised elite governance model of Kenichi Ono and the method of interdisciplinary analysis. The article is divided into six parts: first, introduction. This paper mainly describes the background and significance of this topic, research objectives and methods, as well as domestic and foreign research on "middle-income trap." the first chapter explains the "middle-income trap" analysis framework. Focus on revealing the meaning of "middle-income trap", falling into the cause, as well as the conditions of leapfrogging. The second chapter mainly explains that Russia has shown bad signs in social, political and economic aspects. The third chapter analyzes the policies adopted by Russia to deal with the "middle-income trap", with emphasis on revealing the effect of the policy. Chapter 4th, with the help of the above analysis. According to Putin's campaign platform and the policies adopted, this paper focuses on the analysis of the challenges facing Russia. Finally, in the concluding part, the author expounds the conditions for Russia to cross the "middle-income trap".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F151.2

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