本文關(guān)鍵詞：湖南省金融發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級關(guān)系的實證分析　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：金融的本質(zhì)是在資金盈余部門和資金短缺部門之間建立一條資金流轉(zhuǎn)的渠道,可稱之為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟的核心和助推器,金融發(fā)展水平的高低必定會影響一個地區(qū)或城市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整進程。2010年11月27日湖南省九屆十次全會通過的《湖南省十二五規(guī)劃》中指出,“把結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整取得重要進展作為規(guī)劃的主要目標之一,即三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進一步優(yōu)化,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)比重、戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)比重和高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)比重明顯提高”。由此可見,湖南省想要取得快速穩(wěn)健發(fā)展和在中部崛起戰(zhàn)略中走在前列,就必須通過發(fā)揮金融體系的支持促進效應(yīng)來獲得比較優(yōu)勢,從而推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級。所以本文試圖弄清楚湖南省金融發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級之間的具體關(guān)系,探索它們之間的內(nèi)在規(guī)律,通過建立完善有效的金融體系來加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的進程,從而不斷的促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,提高湖南省經(jīng)濟運行的質(zhì)量和效益。 本文通過對湖南省金融發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間相互關(guān)系和作用機制進行理論上和實證上的分析,得出它們之間的因果關(guān)系以及貢獻程度,然后有針對性的提出政策建議。在借鑒前人已經(jīng)有的研究方法基礎(chǔ)上,本文運用比較分析的方法和計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)的工具進行研究分析。文章共分為五個部分：第一部分簡要的說明了文章的選題背景、目的、意義、研究思路、方法以及創(chuàng)新和不足之處；第二部分主要是對金融發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的有關(guān)理論做出介紹,另外,還從金融發(fā)展影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的機理分析和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對金融發(fā)展的影響兩個方面探討了二者之間的相互關(guān)系,并對國內(nèi)現(xiàn)有的一些具有代表性的金融發(fā)展影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的文章進行了概括；第三部分首先分析了湖南目前的金融發(fā)展態(tài)勢,從銀行業(yè)、證券業(yè)和保險業(yè)三大基本金融行業(yè)描述了湖南省金融發(fā)展狀況,概括了金融發(fā)展的基本特征,然后從產(chǎn)值比重和就業(yè)比重兩個方面對湖南省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的演進過程進行了分析；第四部分是本論文的重點章節(jié),包括變量選擇、數(shù)據(jù)來源與模型構(gòu)建、模型估計、ADF檢驗、協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗、VEC模型、Granger因果檢驗和OLS方法估計多元回歸模型,最后對整個實證的分析過程和結(jié)果進行了小結(jié)；第五部分也是本文的重點章節(jié)之一,總結(jié)了全文并利用實證分析得出的結(jié)論,就如何通過發(fā)展金融業(yè)來促進湖南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級提出了一些政策建議。 在對金融發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)理論及文獻綜述中發(fā)現(xiàn)：金融發(fā)展是促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的關(guān)鍵所在,而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整升級又會反過來推動金融發(fā)展。金融活動主要作用于引導(dǎo)空閑資金的優(yōu)化配置,再通過資金的配置來引導(dǎo)他生產(chǎn)要素的流動,金融資源的流動使得不同行業(yè)的產(chǎn)值發(fā)生相應(yīng)變化,進而影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),金融發(fā)展程度越高,這種影響作用就越明顯、有效。同樣的,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)在調(diào)整過程中發(fā)生的籌資變化、對風(fēng)險抵御的變化、信息的復(fù)雜化都會帶動金融發(fā)展。在對湖南省金融發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀分析中發(fā)現(xiàn),湖南省金融發(fā)展速度快于經(jīng)濟增長速度,金融相關(guān)比率在波動中持續(xù)上升,各項存、貸款年增長率大幅波動且各項存、貸款總額占金融資產(chǎn)總量的比重呈此長彼消的趨勢,間接融資占絕對優(yōu)勢,金融業(yè)增加值穩(wěn)步增長,與中部各省比較而言,湖南省存貸款總額和金融業(yè)增加值占第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的比重都處于靠后位置,迫切需要加快發(fā)展；產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)由改革開放初期的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟時代跨入現(xiàn)在的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟中期階段,由“一、二、三”模式發(fā)展為“二、三、一”模式,中間還一度出現(xiàn)過產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)類型的最高形態(tài)“三、二、一”排序,產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)由“一、二、三”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤耙�、三、二”模�?對比發(fā)現(xiàn)湖南省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人員結(jié)構(gòu)的演變速度遠遠慢于產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)的演變速度,這一現(xiàn)象體現(xiàn)為大量勞動力滯留在農(nóng)業(yè)部門中,沒有向第三產(chǎn)業(yè)實現(xiàn)多余勞動力的轉(zhuǎn)移。實證分析得出的結(jié)果有：Johansen協(xié)整檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)當金融相關(guān)比率和金融結(jié)構(gòu)比率分別變動一個百分點時能引起第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重正向移動0.811百分點和0.105百分點,說明金融業(yè)的發(fā)展確實是能夠帶動產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的,前者對后者具有明顯的促進作用,且從變動的數(shù)值來看,金融相關(guān)比率的提高帶來的變化程度要明顯大于金融結(jié)構(gòu)比率指標；通過格蘭杰因果檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)金融發(fā)展指標與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整指標只有單向的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；多元回歸模型可以看出,金融機構(gòu)存款占地區(qū)GDP比重每增加一個百分點,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值會相應(yīng)的增加2.635個百分點,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值相應(yīng)的增加4.086個百分點,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值相應(yīng)的增加4.448個百分點,從具體數(shù)值上看,金融系統(tǒng)提升募集閑散資金的能力使第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的受益程度最大,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)其次,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)最后。 當前,湖南正處在“四化兩型”建設(shè)的重要歷史時期,對于金融這樣一個先導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)來說也正處在一個轉(zhuǎn)型的戰(zhàn)略機遇期,“十一五”期間全省金融業(yè)發(fā)展成效顯著,融資總量大幅增長,融資結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化,但是仍然存在缺乏合適的金融產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、直接融資占比偏低、金融體制改革不夠徹底等問題,為了進一步完善金融機構(gòu)改革,促進金融體系的發(fā)展,為湖南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和升級服務(wù),可以從以下幾個方面考慮：首先,要正確發(fā)揮政府作用,才,能實現(xiàn)金融體制的有效改革。湖南省在政府主導(dǎo)的集中型金融制度下,國有商業(yè)銀行成為企業(yè)的主要融資來源,承擔(dān)著80%左右的支付結(jié)算量,金融資源的配置嚴重缺乏市場定價和風(fēng)險分散機制,這必然會產(chǎn)生低效率運行的金融體系,必須轉(zhuǎn)變政府對金融的管理職能,讓政府“減政放權(quán)”、“松綁讓利”,降低政府對資金配置的干預(yù),弱化政府主導(dǎo)的金融資源配置模式,政府要減少行政干預(yù),強化市場在金融體系中的主導(dǎo)地位,才正確發(fā)揮政府在信貸資源配置上的權(quán)利,同時還要配套公平、誠信的金融法治環(huán)境和高效的金融監(jiān)管體系,“法制”與“信用”兩手同時抓,加大打擊非法證券交易、保險欺詐等金融違法犯罪行為,嚴懲逃廢金融債務(wù)等失信行為,為金融業(yè)發(fā)展營造良好空間；其次,要提高資本市場直接融資的比重,充分發(fā)揮直接融資的產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇功能。湖南省所處的中部地區(qū)屬于資本嚴重缺乏的地區(qū),大量的項目需要資金的支持,要建立科學(xué)合理、符合客觀實際需求的金融結(jié)構(gòu),才能夠充分發(fā)揮金融對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的核心支持作用,應(yīng)該充分利用資本市場在吸收資金并促使生產(chǎn)要素在區(qū)域間合理流動的功能來拓寬融資渠道,擴大直接融資數(shù)量,并不斷完善資本市場交易制度,加強對股票市場的監(jiān)管、強迫上市公司誠實披露信息、保障投資者的權(quán)益,從而促進資本市場的規(guī)范化,提高資金配置效率,發(fā)揮直接融資的產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇功能,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；最后,要加快發(fā)展與湖南產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整相適應(yīng)的金融體系。湖南省要想實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的后發(fā)優(yōu)勢,必須把第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的振興與發(fā)展作為一項重要任務(wù)來抓。本文的研究結(jié)果表明,金融部門在實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整過程中,確實可以有效地帶動資金流和勞動力從農(nóng)業(yè)部門向二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,因而可以因地制宜的采取與湖南省的金融發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀相適應(yīng)的金融發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,在促進高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展方面充分發(fā)揮金融的導(dǎo)向作用,引導(dǎo)金融資源向擁有巨大發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ母呖萍籍a(chǎn)業(yè)傾斜,抑制金融資源流向資源消耗型、環(huán)境危害型產(chǎn)業(yè)。 本文的創(chuàng)新點表現(xiàn)在：1、在研究金融發(fā)展對實體經(jīng)濟的作用中,大多文章都只關(guān)注宏觀經(jīng)濟總量和微觀企業(yè)主體兩個層面,而對金融與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等中觀層面的研究不多。本文則是從中觀的層面考察了金融與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的關(guān)系,這是本文的一大新意；2、本文系統(tǒng)的分析了湖南省金融業(yè)發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的現(xiàn)狀、歷程和基本特征,并將其與中部各省及全國進行了比較；3、本文運用協(xié)整分析和向量誤差修正(VEC)模型,從長期和短期兩個方面分析了湖南省金融發(fā)展對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的支持作用,為如何選擇適當?shù)慕鹑谡邅泶龠M產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級提供了參考。
[Abstract]:The essence of finance is to establish a cash flow channel between the part of surplus and shortage of funds sector, can be referred to as the core and booster of the modern economy, the financial development level will affect the industrial structure of Hunan province > 12th Five-Year planning in a city or region is the adjustment process of.2010 years in Hunan Province in November 27th nine session of the ten in the plenary session of the "pointed out that" the restructuring made important progress as one of the main objectives of planning, which is three times to further optimize the industrial structure, the proportion of producer services, the proportion of strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries increased significantly. Therefore, Hunan province wants to achieve fast and steady development and the rise in the strategy of walking in the forefront in the middle, we must play through the support of the financial system to promote comparative advantage effect, so as to promote the upgrading of industrial structure. So this paper attempts Clarify the specific relationship between Hunan financial development and industrial structure upgrading, explore the inherent law between them, through the establishment of effective financial system to accelerate the process of upgrading the industrial structure, so as to continuously promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, improve the quality and efficiency of Hunan province economy.
In this paper, through theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Hunan Province financial development and industrial structure relationship and mechanism, the causal relationship between them and the degree of contribution, and then proposes some targeted policy recommendations. On the basis of previous research methods have some basis, this paper uses comparative analysis method and measurement tools economics analysis. The article is divided into five parts: the first part briefly explains the background, purpose, significance, research ideas, methods and innovations and deficiencies; the second part is mainly introduced, the theory of financial development and industrial structure and also influence from financial development mechanism the analysis of industrial structure and industrial structure adjustment on the financial development of the two aspects of the relationship between the two, and the domestic existing some out Representative of the financial development affects the industrial structure the article summarized; the third part analyzes the current situation of Hunan financial development, from banking, securities and insurance industry three basic financial industry in Hunan province were described financial development, summarizes the basic characteristics of financial development, and then analyzed from two in terms of the proportion of output value proportion and employment during the evolution of the three industries in Hunan province; the fourth part is the key chapter of this paper, including variable selection, construction, data sources and model estimation, ADF test, cointegration test, VEC model, Granger causality test and OLS method to estimate the regression model, the empirical the analysis process and results were summarized; one of the most important chapters in the fifth part, the author summarizes the whole thesis and the conclusions of empirical analysis, on how to develop Some policy suggestions are put forward by the financial industry to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of Hunan province.
Found in the summary of relevant theories of financial development and industrial structure and Literature: financial development is the key to promote the adjustment of industrial structure, and industrial structure adjustment will in turn promote financial development. The main function of the financial activities to guide the optimal allocation of idle funds, the capital allocation of production factors to guide him the flow, the flow of financial resources so that different industry output changes, thereby affecting the industrial structure, the higher the degree of financial development, this effect is more obvious and effective. Similarly, changes in the industrial structure adjustment in the financing process, changes in risk, complex information will promote financial development in the analysis of Hunan Province financial development and industrial structure in Hunan Province financial development speed faster than the speed of economic growth, financial ratio in fluctuation to Continues to rise, the deposit, loan growth rate and volatility of the deposit, the total amount of loans accounted for the proportion of financial assets in this long elimination trend, indirect financing accounted for an absolute advantage, the added value of the financial industry to grow steadily, and the central provinces of Hunan Province, in comparison, deposits and loans and financial sector accounts for third the proportion of industrial added value in the backward position, the urgent need to accelerate the development of industrial structure; from the beginning of reform and opening up the agricultural economy into the middle stage of industrial economy now, from "one, two, three" to "two, three, one" mode, also once appeared the industrial structure type the highest form of "three, two, a sort of industrial employment structure by" one, two, three "into" one, three, two "mode, comparison of evolution of Hunan Province three industry practitioners structure evolution is much slower than the structure of output value Speed, this phenomenon is reflected in a large number of surplus labors in the agricultural sector, did not realize the transfer of surplus labor to the third industry. The empirical results are as follows: Johansen cointegration test found that when financial ratios and financial structure ratio of one percentage point change can cause the second industry and the third industry output value proportion is 0.811 percentage point mobile and 0.105 percentage points, indicating the development of the financial industry is to promote industrial development, the former has obvious effect on the latter, and the change from the numerical point of view, change degree of financial ratio improves more significantly than the financial structure ratio index; found that indicators of financial development and industrial structure adjustment index only one-way causal Grainger the relationship between the Grainger causality test; multiple regression model shows that financial institutions deposit area accounted for the proportion of GDP Each increase of one percentage point, the first industry output value will be increased by 2.635 percentage points, the second industrial output increased by 4.086 percentage points, third industrial output increased by 4.448 percentage points, from the specific numerical point of view, the financial system to improve the ability to raise the maximum benefit level of idle funds in the third industry, the second industry finally, the first industry.
At present, Hunan is in an important historical period of four type two "construction, to finance such a leading industry is being in a transitional period of strategic opportunities," 11th Five-Year "during the development of the province's financial industry has achieved remarkable results, the total amount of financing increased significantly, constantly optimize the financing structure, but there is still a lack of appropriate financial industry the policy of low proportion of direct financing, the problem of financial system reform is not thorough enough, in order to further improve the reform of financial institutions, to promote the development of the financial system, for the Hunan Province industrial structure adjustment and upgrade services, from the following aspects: first, the right to play the role of government, and can realize the effective reform of the financial system. Hunan province in the centralized financial system dominated by the government, the state-owned commercial banks become the main source of financing for enterprises, take about 80% of the amount of payment and settlement, financial The allocation of resources, a serious lack of market pricing and risk management mechanism, it will have a low efficiency of the financial system, the financial management function must change government, make the government "decentralization", "no profit", reduce government intervention in the allocation of funds, the weakening of mode of allocation of financial resources of government, the government should reduce administrative intervention, strengthen the dominant position in the market in the financial system, to play the rights of the government in the allocation of credit resources on the right, while also supporting the fairness, integrity of the financial law and efficient financial supervision system, the "rule of law" and "credit" in both hands grasp, to crack down on illegal securities trading, insurance and other financial fraud to punish illegal and criminal acts of evading and rejecting financial debts and other acts of dishonesty, and create a good space for the development of the financial industry; secondly, to improve the proportion of direct financing of the capital market, give full play to The essential function of industry choice of direct financing. The central region of Hunan Province in which the capital belongs to the serious lack of the area, the project requires a lot of financial support, to establish a scientific and reasonable financial structure, meet the actual needs, can give full play to the core financial support for economic development, should make full use of the capital market in the absorption of funds and to promote the reasonable flow of production factors between regions to broaden the financing channels, expand direct financing amount, and constantly improve the trading system of capital market, strengthen the supervision of the stock market, forcing listed companies honest disclosure of information, safeguard the interests of investors, so as to promote the standardization of capital market, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, play industry select the function of direct financing, optimize the industrial structure; finally, to speed up the development and adjustment of industrial structure in Hunan to adapt to the financial system in Hunan province. In order to achieve economic development advantage, must catch the revitalization and development of the second industry and the third industry as an important task. The results of this study show that the financial sector in the implementation process of readjustment of the industrial structure, can effectively promote the flow of funds and labor from agricultural sector to two, the three industry transfer, which can take the local conditions of Hunan province and the status quo of financial development and industrial structure to adapt to financial development strategy, give full play to the guiding role of Finance in promoting the development of high-tech industry, to guide financial resources to tilt the high-tech industry with great potential, suppression of financial resources to resource consumption, environmental damage type industry.
The innovation of this paper: 1, research on the financial development effect on the real economy, most of the articles are only concerned about the macro economy and micro enterprises in two aspects, and Research on financial and industrial structure adjustment. The meso level is not much. This paper is from the meso level to examine the relationship of financial adjustment with the industrial structure, which is a major innovation of this article; 2, this paper analyzes the status quo of the upgrade of Hunan Province financial development and industrial structure, process and basic characteristics, and with the central provinces and the country are compared; 3, the correction by the cointegration analysis and vector error (VEC) the model, from the two aspects of the long-term and short-term analysis of Hunan Province financial development to support the upgrading of the industrial structure, how to choose the proper financial policy to provide reference to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F832.7;F224

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本文編號：1433475