本文關(guān)鍵詞：國際化背景下的中國國家創(chuàng)新體系DSGE模型構(gòu)建及演化預(yù)測　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國家創(chuàng)新體系 動態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡(DSGE) 模型 預(yù)測

【摘要】：科技創(chuàng)新對于各國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率日益提升,不論是發(fā)達(dá)國家還是發(fā)展中國家,都已經(jīng)意識到國家的創(chuàng)新能力將成為各國在國際競爭中成敗的重要籌碼。因此,有關(guān)國家創(chuàng)新能力的提升對策和國家創(chuàng)新體系運行機(jī)理的研究備受國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界、國際組織和各國政府的廣泛關(guān)注,并取得了一些研究成果。 我國在建設(shè)國家創(chuàng)新體系方面仍存在較多問題。理論支撐方面,我國學(xué)者對于國家創(chuàng)新體系研究進(jìn)行了很多案例研究和實證研究,但利用模型來支持有關(guān)政策的分析還不夠,對于國家創(chuàng)新體系的研究缺少有效的模型支撐。實際建設(shè)中,我國國家創(chuàng)新體系建設(shè)仍面臨巨大的挑戰(zhàn),國家創(chuàng)新體系總體效率不高,企業(yè)創(chuàng)新動力和能力不足,創(chuàng)新環(huán)境有待進(jìn)一步改善,技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)移和擴(kuò)散活動發(fā)展滯后。 本文從研究國家創(chuàng)新體系的構(gòu)成和主體要素間的相互作用關(guān)系入手,將國家創(chuàng)新體系的主體要素歸結(jié)為企業(yè)、高校、政府、國際化的中介機(jī)構(gòu)四個“部門”,基于動態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡(DSGE)理論,建立四部門的DSGE模型,并利用中國的數(shù)據(jù),對模型進(jìn)行了實證檢驗。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,對我國國家創(chuàng)新體系各部門的行為方式進(jìn)行了初步分析,以求為國家創(chuàng)新體系建設(shè)提供針對性和可操作性建議并對國家創(chuàng)新體系中的主要要素進(jìn)行了預(yù)測分析。 本文研究得到,企業(yè)創(chuàng)新費用主要取決于企業(yè)對于新產(chǎn)品的銷售收入水平,知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的擁有水平對‘于創(chuàng)新費用投入的影響較不明顯,預(yù)測到2015年我國企業(yè)創(chuàng)新費用將達(dá)到8797億；高校的知識生產(chǎn)在較低的成本水平下有利于獲取科研成果,國內(nèi)技術(shù)需求額與技術(shù)引進(jìn)額的比對于高校國際論文的產(chǎn)出具有正向作用和長遠(yuǎn)意義,預(yù)測到2015年,我國高校發(fā)表的國際論文數(shù)將超過40萬篇,國際論文占論文總數(shù)的37%；政府主要從兩個方面誘導(dǎo)企業(yè)進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新投入,一是通過增加RD投入,二是通過降低企業(yè)稅負(fù),預(yù)測到20巧年我國企業(yè)專利申請量達(dá)到60萬件；我國科技人員人均收入水平的提升對于我國國內(nèi)技術(shù)需求具有正向的促進(jìn)作用,預(yù)測到2015年我國國內(nèi)技術(shù)需求額與技術(shù)引進(jìn)額的比為4.53：1。
[Abstract]:The contribution rate of science and technology innovation to the economic growth of every country is increasing day by day, be it developed country or developing country. Both have realized that national innovation ability will become an important chip of success or failure in international competition. The research on the improvement of national innovation ability and the operational mechanism of national innovation system has received extensive attention from academic circles, international organizations and governments at home and abroad, and some research results have been obtained. There are still many problems in the construction of the national innovation system in China. On the theoretical support, Chinese scholars have carried out many case studies and empirical studies on the national innovation system. However, the use of models to support the analysis of relevant policies is not enough, for the national innovation system research lack of effective model support. In the actual construction, China's national innovation system construction is still facing enormous challenges. The overall efficiency of the national innovation system is not high, the innovation power and ability of enterprises are insufficient, the innovation environment needs to be further improved, and the development of technology transfer and diffusion activities lags behind. Starting with the study of the relationship between the composition of the national innovation system and the interaction between the main elements, this paper summarizes the main elements of the national innovation system into four "departments": enterprises, universities, governments and international intermediary organizations. Based on the theory of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, this paper establishes a four-sector DSGE model, and makes an empirical test of the model using Chinese data. The behavior of each department of national innovation system of our country has carried on the preliminary analysis. In order to provide pertinence and maneuverability suggestions for the construction of the national innovation system, the main elements of the national innovation system are forecasted and analyzed. In this paper, it is found that the cost of enterprise innovation mainly depends on the sales income level of the new product, and the level of intellectual property ownership has little effect on the investment of innovation cost. It is predicted that by 2015, the innovation cost of Chinese enterprises will reach 879.7 billion; The knowledge production in colleges and universities is beneficial to the achievement of scientific research under the low cost level. The ratio of the amount of domestic technology demand to the amount of technology introduction has a positive effect and long-term significance for the output of international papers in colleges and universities. It is predicted that by 2015, the number of international papers published by colleges and universities in China will be more than 400,000, with international papers accounting for 37% of the total number of papers. The government mainly induces enterprises to invest in innovation from two aspects: one is to increase R D investment, the other is to reduce the tax burden of enterprises, and predict that the number of patent applications of Chinese enterprises will reach 600,000 in 20 years. The increase of per capita income of scientific and technological personnel in China has a positive effect on the domestic technology demand, and the ratio of domestic technology demand to technology import by 2015 is predicted to be 4.53: 1.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.3

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