本文關(guān)鍵詞：物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古工業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)愈來(lái)愈激烈,物流業(yè)也越來(lái)越受到人們的關(guān)注從上個(gè)世紀(jì)90年代,人們還對(duì)物流業(yè)具體是什么一知半解,到現(xiàn)在,物流業(yè)已被公認(rèn)為是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的基礎(chǔ)和動(dòng)脈�，F(xiàn)代物流業(yè)既是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)又是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)劑。它具有降低交易成本、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、有助于新興產(chǎn)業(yè)及中心城市的形成等戰(zhàn)略性作用。而物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是現(xiàn)代物流發(fā)展的必要條件,也是實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)騰飛的一個(gè)必備前提條件。 2008年,由美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的金融危機(jī)席卷全球,為了抵御金融危機(jī)我國(guó)政府施行積極的財(cái)政政策,為擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需出臺(tái)了十項(xiàng)措施。其中一項(xiàng)是加快鐵路、公路和機(jī)場(chǎng)等重大交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)。2013年7月24日,中國(guó)鐵路總公司發(fā)行2013年第一期中國(guó)鐵路建設(shè)債券,發(fā)行總額200億。據(jù)國(guó)家發(fā)改委規(guī)劃,2013年,中國(guó)鐵路建設(shè)債券發(fā)行規(guī)模將達(dá)到1500億元,用于哈爾濱至齊齊哈爾鐵路客運(yùn)專(zhuān)線等73個(gè)鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,這預(yù)示著鐵路基建項(xiàng)目和機(jī)車(chē)車(chē)輛招標(biāo)等事宜將全面展開(kāi),鐵路建設(shè)再度提速。隨著國(guó)家對(duì)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的投資力度不斷加大,物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資已成為一個(gè)熱點(diǎn)話題,物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)也成為學(xué)者們研究的重點(diǎn)。 本文按照“理論基礎(chǔ)—現(xiàn)狀分析一定性分析—定量分析—政策建議”的思路,首先從分析了我國(guó)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的兩個(gè)機(jī)理：向前拉動(dòng)作用與后向波及作用。向前拉動(dòng)作用主要分析了物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)過(guò)程中,從投資的角度出發(fā),物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)具有乘數(shù)效益,增加了相關(guān)行業(yè),如鋼鐵、水泥、重型機(jī)械等行業(yè)需求,有效的拉動(dòng)了這些行業(yè)的發(fā)展,進(jìn)而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；后向波及作用主要運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)分析了現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的作用機(jī)理,同時(shí),利用2005-2011年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行仿真,得出物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建成后,可以緩解物流供需瓶頸,降低經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的成本,支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的結(jié)論。 隨后本文運(yùn)用誤差修正模型從定量角度分析了我國(guó)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)短期關(guān)系。測(cè)算出了我國(guó)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資與GDP的彈性系數(shù)與短期調(diào)整力度。最后得出我國(guó)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系,且物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施存量已經(jīng)開(kāi)始發(fā)揮其作用,說(shuō)明我國(guó)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施已經(jīng)達(dá)到了一定的規(guī)模。
[Abstract]:With the economic globalization, the world economic competition is becoming more and more fierce, and the logistics industry has been paid more and more attention from -10s, people still have a little understanding of the specific logistics industry, up to now. Logistics industry has been recognized as the basis and artery of economic activities. Modern logistics industry is not only the basis of economic development but also the driving agent of economic growth. It can reduce transaction costs and optimize the industrial structure. Logistics infrastructure is a necessary condition for the development of modern logistics and also a prerequisite for economic take-off. In 2008, the financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States swept the world. In order to resist the financial crisis, our government carried out positive fiscal policies. Ten measures were introduced to expand domestic demand. One is to speed up the construction of major transport infrastructure such as railways, roads and airports. July 24th 2013. China Railway Corporation issued the first issue of China Railway Construction Bond on 2013, with a total amount of 20 billion. According to the State Development and Reform Commission plan, 2013. China's railway construction bonds will be issued on a scale of 150 billion yuan to be used for 73 railway construction projects such as the Harbin to Qiqihar railway passenger dedicated line. This indicates that railway infrastructure projects and locomotive and rolling stock bidding will be launched in full, and railway construction will be speeded up again. Logistics infrastructure investment has become a hot topic, and the contribution of logistics infrastructure investment to economic growth has become the focus of scholars. This paper is based on the idea of "theoretical basis-current situation analysis-qualitative analysis-quantitative analysis-policy recommendations". Firstly, this paper analyzes the two mechanisms of logistics infrastructure investment to promote economic growth in China: the forward pull role and the backward ripple effect, and the forward pull role mainly analyzes the process of logistics infrastructure construction. From the perspective of investment, logistics infrastructure construction has multiplier benefits, increasing the related industries, such as steel, cement, heavy machinery and other industries demand, effectively pulling the development of these industries. To promote economic growth; The backward ripple effect mainly uses system dynamics to analyze the mechanism between modern logistics industry and economic growth. At the same time, the simulation is carried out by using the relevant data from 2005 to 2011. It is concluded that logistics infrastructure can ease the bottleneck of logistics supply and demand, reduce the cost of economic activities and support economic development. Then, using the error correction model, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term relationship between logistics infrastructure construction investment and economic growth in China from a quantitative perspective, and calculates the elastic coefficient between logistics infrastructure construction investment and GDP in China. Finally, it is concluded that there is a long-term and stable relationship between investment in logistics infrastructure construction and economic growth in China. And the logistics infrastructure stock has begun to play its role, indicating that China's logistics infrastructure has reached a certain scale.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F253.7;F124.1

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