本文關(guān)鍵詞：國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響及對(duì)策分析　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：中國(guó)現(xiàn)已成為世界第二大原油消費(fèi)國(guó)和進(jìn)口國(guó),2012年中國(guó)原油消費(fèi)量達(dá)到4.7億噸,原油進(jìn)口年增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)7%。但一直以來(lái),中國(guó)不僅沒(méi)能享受消費(fèi)大國(guó)應(yīng)有的“消費(fèi)者剩余價(jià)值”,反而面臨原油進(jìn)口價(jià)格高于國(guó)際均價(jià),被動(dòng)接受國(guó)際油價(jià)變動(dòng)的尷尬現(xiàn)狀。在原油消費(fèi)對(duì)外依賴程度不斷走高背景下,由于國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)的缺失,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)受到了嚴(yán)重的損失。因此,對(duì)國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失問(wèn)題的深入研究對(duì)于進(jìn)一步改革中國(guó)原油市場(chǎng),合理地制定能源戰(zhàn)略,保證國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定、快速、持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文采用定性和定量相結(jié)合的研究方法,從理論和實(shí)證兩方面對(duì)國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)及其缺失對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行了分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明由于缺失國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán),中國(guó)只能被動(dòng)接受國(guó)際原油市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的波動(dòng),無(wú)法對(duì)其產(chǎn)生影響。本文進(jìn)一步構(gòu)建灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型和向量自回歸模型,研究國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的重大影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：國(guó)際原油價(jià)格與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、物價(jià)水平、消費(fèi)及投資之間均存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,國(guó)際原油價(jià)格的上漲使得國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)水平上漲,居民消費(fèi)及投資水平下降,抑制了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 本文研究認(rèn)為,中國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失的主要原因有：國(guó)內(nèi)原油供需缺口大,剛性需求導(dǎo)致原油消費(fèi)進(jìn)口依賴程度高；技術(shù)限制使得國(guó)內(nèi)原油供需缺口的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大;國(guó)際原油定價(jià)體系不能有效反映中國(guó)原油的供需狀況；國(guó)內(nèi)石油行業(yè)制度及較高的原油進(jìn)口集中度,不利于國(guó)內(nèi)石油企業(yè)參加國(guó)際原油市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。綜上分析,中國(guó)應(yīng)充分把握造成中國(guó)缺失國(guó)際原油定價(jià)權(quán)的各種供求和非供求因素,抓住機(jī)遇,創(chuàng)新機(jī)制,發(fā)展期貨市場(chǎng),加強(qiáng)石油儲(chǔ)備,改革原油及成品油國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格機(jī)制,積極發(fā)展替代能源,短期內(nèi)謀求減小缺失原油定價(jià)權(quán)給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的不良影響,中長(zhǎng)期謀求穩(wěn)步提升國(guó)際原油定價(jià)話語(yǔ)權(quán)。
[Abstract]:China is now the world's second-largest consumer and importer of crude oil, with crude oil consumption reaching 470 million tons in 2012, and crude oil imports growing at an annual rate of more than 7. China has not only failed to enjoy the "consumer surplus value" that the big consumer should have, but also faced the problem that the import price of crude oil is higher than the international average price. Passive acceptance of the embarrassing situation of international oil price changes. Under the background of increasing dependence on crude oil consumption, due to the lack of pricing power of international crude oil, China's economy has suffered serious losses. The in-depth study on the lack of pricing power of international crude oil will further reform the Chinese crude oil market, rationally formulate the energy strategy, and ensure the stability, rapid and sustained growth of the national economy. It has important theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. This paper analyzes the influence of international crude oil pricing power and its deficiency on China's economy from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The empirical results show that the lack of international crude oil pricing power is due to the lack of international crude oil pricing power. China can only passively accept the fluctuation of the international crude oil market price, but can not have an impact on it. This paper further constructs the grey correlation model and the vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between the international crude oil price and China's economic growth, price level, consumption and investment. The rise of the international crude oil price makes the domestic price level rise and the resident consumption and investment level drop, which inhibits the economic growth. In this paper, the main reasons for the lack of pricing power in China and international crude oil are as follows: the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap is large, and the rigid demand leads to a high degree of dependence on crude oil consumption and import; The technical restriction makes the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap expand further; The international crude oil pricing system can not effectively reflect the supply and demand of Chinese crude oil; Domestic petroleum industry system and high concentration of crude oil imports are not conducive to domestic oil enterprises to participate in the international crude oil market competition. China should fully grasp all kinds of supply and demand factors that cause the lack of international crude oil pricing power in China, seize the opportunity, innovate the mechanism, develop the futures market and strengthen the petroleum reserve. To reform the domestic price mechanism of crude oil and refined oil, to actively develop alternative energy sources, to reduce the negative impact on China's economy caused by the lack of pricing power of crude oil in the short term, and to steadily promote the right of international crude oil pricing in the medium and long term.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F426.22

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