本文關(guān)鍵詞：山區(qū)城市地質(zhì)災(zāi)害與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關(guān)系研究——以蘭州市為例　出處：《冰川凍土》2015年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 地質(zhì)災(zāi)害 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 哈羅德-多馬模型 脫鉤關(guān)系 蘭州市

【摘要】：蘭州市是中國乃至世界上滑坡、泥石流等地質(zhì)災(zāi)害最為嚴重的山區(qū)城市之一,區(qū)內(nèi)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害問題十分突出,防災(zāi)減災(zāi)任務(wù)繁重.地質(zhì)災(zāi)害是影響社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的因素之一,地質(zhì)災(zāi)害與城市經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展相伴共生,相互制約、相互促進.運用災(zāi)害統(tǒng)計學(xué)、經(jīng)濟學(xué)中的哈羅德-多馬模型、脫鉤模型等多種理論方法對2006-2012年蘭州市地質(zhì)災(zāi)害與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關(guān)系進行分析.結(jié)果表明:蘭州市地質(zhì)災(zāi)害總體上對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響仍以負面影響為主,正面影響對經(jīng)濟的促進作用相對較弱;近年來地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防災(zāi)減災(zāi)效果明顯,已取得了良好的社會效益、經(jīng)濟效益和環(huán)境效益.在區(qū)內(nèi)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害高發(fā)和社會經(jīng)濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長共生的條件下,必須以實現(xiàn)"地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的負增長"為當前和今后一段時期防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的重要任務(wù)和目標,最終達到地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的有效防治與社會經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展.
[Abstract]:Lanzhou city is China landslide and even in the world, one of the most serious mountain city geological disasters such as landslides and geological disasters in the region is very prominent, the arduous task of disaster prevention and mitigation of geological disasters is one of the factors influencing social and economic development, the development of geological disasters and city economy accompanied by the coexistence, mutual restraint, mutual promotion. The use of disaster statistics in economics, Harold Thomas model, analysis model and other theories decoupling method to geological disasters and economic development of Lanzhou city during 2006-2012. The results show that the geological disasters in Lanzhou city overall impact on economic development is still mainly negative influence, promote relatively weak positive effect on the economy in recent years of geological disasters; disaster prevention and mitigation effect is obvious, has achieved good social benefits, economic benefits and environmental benefits. In the area of high incidence of geological disasters and social economy Under the condition of sustained and stable growth and symbiosis, we must realize the "negative growth of geological disasters" as an important task and goal of disaster prevention and mitigation in the current and future period, and ultimately achieve the effective prevention and control of geological disasters and the sustainable and coordinated development of social economy.

【作者單位】： 蘭州城市學(xué)院馬克思主義學(xué)院;蘭州大學(xué)資源環(huán)境學(xué)院西部環(huán)境教育部重點實驗室;甘肅省科學(xué)院地質(zhì)自然災(zāi)害防治研究所;
【基金】：甘肅省軟科學(xué)研究計劃項目(1105ZCRA203) 甘肅省科學(xué)院應(yīng)用研發(fā)項目(2013JK-07)
【分類號】：F127;P694
【正文快照】： 0引言20世紀50年代西方學(xué)者最先開始研究自然災(zāi)害與經(jīng)濟的關(guān)系問題,1966年Kunreuther和Fiore合作發(fā)表的論文中明確地提出“災(zāi)害經(jīng)濟學(xué)”一詞,同年經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Hirshleifer第一個深入地分析了西歐1348-1350年經(jīng)歷的黑死病大爆發(fā)對經(jīng)濟的短期與長期的影響,其研究成果激勵了更多的經(jīng)

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