本文關(guān)鍵詞：要素投入與巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 巴西經(jīng)濟(jì) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 要素投入 全要素生產(chǎn)率 制度改革

【摘要】：巴西是拉丁美洲最大的發(fā)展中國家,不僅人口最多、國土面積最為遼闊,而且經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力居拉美之首、世界第六。對(duì)于一個(gè)如此重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)大國,我國國內(nèi)學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)它的研究還相當(dāng)貧乏。本文的研究對(duì)象是巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之路并非一帆風(fēng)順。從上世紀(jì)以來,巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展大致經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)階段：第一階段(1900—1929)為初級(jí)產(chǎn)品出口驅(qū)動(dòng)下的巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。第二階段為進(jìn)口替代工業(yè)化驅(qū)動(dòng)下的巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(1929—1994)。在這一階段又可以1975年為節(jié)點(diǎn),細(xì)分成兩個(gè)時(shí)期。第一個(gè)時(shí)期(1929—1975)是巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展期。在此期間,巴西工業(yè)得到了快速發(fā)展,并順利地從低收入國家進(jìn)入中等收入國家行列。第二時(shí)期為1975年至1994年。在這一時(shí)期,巴西受到兩次石油危機(jī)的外部沖擊,且前階段高速增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式帶來的種種弊端顯露無疑。在內(nèi)憂外患的雙重夾擊之下,巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入了“丟失的十年”。第三階段(1994年至今)為新自由主義改革驅(qū)動(dòng)下的巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。在新自由主義改革的推動(dòng)下,巴西逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式,經(jīng)濟(jì)開始復(fù)蘇,并成為世界第六大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。 本文使用經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論,從要素投入以及全要素生產(chǎn)率的視角來剖析巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。因此在導(dǎo)論、相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述、巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展歷程的研究之后,本文分別從自然資源要素、勞動(dòng)力要素、人力資本投資要素、資本要素以及全要素生產(chǎn)率的角度分別研究其與巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系.并發(fā)現(xiàn),作為一個(gè)自然資源豐裕的發(fā)展中大國,巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)帶有明顯的自然資源依賴性特征。針對(duì)其自然資源依賴性,本文提出了如何避免資源詛咒效應(yīng)的政策建議。本文繼而采用柯布一道格拉斯函數(shù)估算了20世紀(jì)以來巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中資本要素及人力資本要素投入、全要素生產(chǎn)率對(duì)GDP增長的貢獻(xiàn)度,發(fā)現(xiàn)巴西的資本形成快慢、資本效率、全要素生產(chǎn)率增長率與巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系,也就是說巴西增長模式仍然依賴于投資拉動(dòng),屬于粗放型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式。在使用馬爾姆·奎斯特指數(shù)法對(duì)巴西全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)一步分解后,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)巴西TFP的增長來源于技術(shù)進(jìn)步,而非資源配置效率的改善。 在前文分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文總結(jié)了巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的特點(diǎn),分析了巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅震蕩的原因在于對(duì)外過于依賴國際市場、對(duì)內(nèi)過于依賴自然資源和要素拉動(dòng)型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式,且人力資本的形成和積累尚不足以支持巴西的創(chuàng)新,在制度上巴西政府未能及時(shí)選擇經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式的轉(zhuǎn)型。這些因素的共同作用,導(dǎo)致巴西20世紀(jì)前八十年快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長未能持續(xù)。以“雷亞爾計(jì)劃”為標(biāo)志的新自由主義制度變革推動(dòng)巴西逐漸走出“丟失的十年”,但要維持巴西的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展,巴西政府一方面需要降低巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)自然資源稟賦的依賴性、進(jìn)一步穩(wěn)定國內(nèi)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢,加強(qiáng)對(duì)外部沖擊的抵御能力；另一方面要加快人力資本積累,鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)新,盡快完成產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和增長方式的轉(zhuǎn)型。
[Abstract]:Brazil is the largest developing country in Latin America, not only has the largest population, land area is vast, and the economic strength of the first Latin American home, sixth in the world. For such an important economic power, the research on it in our country academic circles is quite poor. The research object of this paper is Brazil's economic growth.
The economic growth of Brazil. The road is not Everything is going smoothly. from the last century, Brazil's economic development has experienced three stages: the first stage (1900 - 1929) for the Brazil economic growth driven by exports of primary products. In the second stage of import substitution industrialization driving the economic growth of Brazil (1929 - 1994) in this. Stages can also be 1975 as the node, subdivided into two periods. The first period (1929 - 1975) is a period of rapid development of Brazil's economy. During this period, Brazil industry has been rapid development, and successfully entered the ranks of middle income countries from low income countries. The second period is from 1975 to 1994. During this period. Brazil is the two oil crisis external shocks, drawbacks and before the stage of rapid growth in economy shows. Under the double whammy of domestic trouble and foreign invasion into the economy, Brazil lost ten The third stage (1994 to date) was driven by the neoliberal reform of Brazil's economic growth. Under the impetus of the new liberalism reform, Brazil gradually changed the mode of economic growth, and the economy began to recover, and became the sixth largest economy in the world.
This paper uses the theory of economic growth, from the perspective of factor inputs and total factor productivity to analyze the economic growth of Brazil. In the introduction, literature review, research the development of Brazil economy, this paper respectively from natural resources, labor, human capital investment factor, capital factor and the angle of total factor productivity to study relationship with the economic growth in Brazil. And that, as a developing country with abundant natural resources, Brazil economy has obvious dependence on natural resources. According to the characteristics of natural resource dependence, this paper puts forward to how to avoid the resource curse effect policy recommendations. Then using Cobb Douglas function elements since twentieth Century capital and human capital in the economic growth of Brazil investment estimated TFP contribution to the growth of GDP, the Brazil The rate of capital formation, capital efficiency, there was a significant correlation between the growth rate of total factor productivity and economic growth in Brazil, that is to say Brazil still rely on investment led growth model, economic growth mode is extensive. In the use of Malm Quist index method of the total factor productivity of Brazil further decomposition, we find that the growth of TFP in Brazil due to technical progress, rather than the efficiency of resource allocation.
On the basis of the above analysis, this paper summarizes the characteristics of Brazil's economic growth, analyses the reason why Brazil economic volatility is too dependent on foreign economic growth mode of the international market, is too dependent on natural resources and elements of the pulling type, and the formation and accumulation of human capital is not sufficient to support Brazil's innovation and transformation in the system the Brazil government failed to choose the mode of economic growth. All of these factors, resulting in Brazil before twentieth Century eighty years of rapid economic growth could not be sustained. The change of new liberalism system based on the "Real plan" is the symbol of the promotion of Brazil gradually out of the "lost ten years", but to maintain the sustainable development of Brazil, Brazil on the one hand, the government needs to reduce its dependence on the natural resources of Brazil's economy, further stabilize the domestic macroeconomic situation, to strengthen the external shock at On the other hand, we should accelerate the accumulation of human capital, encourage innovation, and complete the restructuring of industrial structure and the mode of growth as soon as possible.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F177.7

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本文編號(hào)：1387073