本文關(guān)鍵詞：武漢市AQI與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r關(guān)系探究及預(yù)測　出處：《華中師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： AQI 武漢市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 因子分析 ARIMA SAS9.3

【摘要】：在工業(yè)化進(jìn)程發(fā)展到如今地步的同時(shí),“霧霾”成為街知巷聞、舉國談?wù)摰臒嵩~,空氣質(zhì)量指數(shù),又稱AQI,是定量描述空氣質(zhì)量狀況的無量綱指數(shù),它可以很好的衡量一個(gè)地區(qū)的空氣污染水平。根據(jù)AQI的評價(jià)方法,AQI值越大,該地區(qū)空氣污染的程度就越深。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),2014年,武漢市GDP達(dá)到10069.48億元,邁入中國城市“萬億GDP俱樂部,居華中首位,15個(gè)副省級城市中位列第三。此外,2015年2月28日,中央文明委在人民大會堂正式授予武漢市“全國文明城市”稱號。武漢在迅猛的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化的同時(shí),環(huán)境問題卻不容樂觀。本文通過因子分析的方法研究了武漢市2013年至2014年中十二個(gè)月的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,對各月經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)行綜合評價(jià),然后通過武漢市從2014年3月到2014年10月這八個(gè)月的AQI值,利用相關(guān)分析模型,探索武漢市AQI與工業(yè)能力之間的關(guān)系。最后,建立ARIMA模型,利用武漢市391天來的AQI值進(jìn)行短期預(yù)測,分析未來三十天AQI值的可能發(fā)展趨勢。本文運(yùn)用的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析軟件為SAS9.3、SPSS17.0。通過因子分析方法給武漢各月的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行綜合評分排名,武漢市從2013年9月到2014年10月(除開2014年1月和2月)這十二個(gè)月中,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展綜合得分最高的是2013年12月,排名最低的是2014年3月。從相關(guān)分析的結(jié)果來看武漢市的AQI值與社會消費(fèi)品零售總額大致呈正相關(guān),即零售總額越大,居民消費(fèi)熱情越高,AQI值越高,大氣污染程度也就越深。本文試圖尋求一個(gè)時(shí)間序列模型來擬合武漢市AQI值隨著時(shí)間推移的變動趨勢,最終通過檢驗(yàn)選定ARIMA(1,1,3)模型,得出未來三十天內(nèi)的短期預(yù)測值。并且預(yù)測出武漢市2015年3月26日之后的未來30天內(nèi),空氣質(zhì)量指數(shù)AQI呈小幅平穩(wěn)上升狀態(tài),未見其明顯較大波動。希望此文可以用來作為政府政策施行、相關(guān)學(xué)術(shù)研究的一個(gè)參考,對治理霧霾具體政策施行迫在眉睫的大背景下,此文的結(jié)論有一定的意義。同時(shí)也希望我們的空氣質(zhì)量會越來越好。
[Abstract]:At the same time, as the industrialization process has reached its present stage, "haze" has become a hot word for the whole country, the air quality index, also known as AQI, which is a dimensionless index that quantitatively describes the air quality situation. It can be a good measure of air pollution levels in a region. The greater the AQI evaluation method, the deeper the level of air pollution in the region. According to statistics, 2014. Wuhan's GDP has reached one tillion six billion nine hundred and forty-eight million yuan, making it one of China's "trillion-#en1# clubs", ranking first in central China and third out of 15 sub-provincial cities. In February 28th 2015. Wuhan was officially awarded the title of "National civilized City" by the Central Commission of Civilization in the Great Hall of the People. Wuhan is developing its economy and culture at the same time. However, the environmental problem is not optimistic. This paper studies the economic development of Wuhan from 2013 to middle of 2014 by factor analysis method, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the economic situation of each month. Then through the AQI value of Wuhan from March 2014 to October 2014, using the correlation analysis model to explore the relationship between Wuhan AQI and industrial capability. Finally. The ARIMA model is established and short-term prediction is made by using the AQI value of Wuhan City in the past 391days, and the possible development trend of the AQI value in the next 30 days is analyzed. The statistical analysis software used in this paper is SAS9.3. SPSS 17.0. through the factor analysis method to Wuhan each month's economic development condition carries on the comprehensive score rank. From September 2013 to October 2014 (apart from January 2014 and #date鈪，

本文編號：1384998