本文關(guān)鍵詞：能源節(jié)約、碳減排與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 能源消耗 碳排放 能源節(jié)約 碳減排 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長

【摘要】：資源節(jié)約、環(huán)境保護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是人類共同關(guān)心的話題,也是當(dāng)今學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的一個熱點。其中,一個重要的焦點便是能源節(jié)約、碳減排和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題。在中國,如果認(rèn)可能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的不協(xié)調(diào)、不平衡之現(xiàn)狀,那是因為中國工業(yè)化發(fā)展的階段特征、城鎮(zhèn)化推進(jìn)過程中能源消耗(需求)結(jié)構(gòu)的固化以及全球產(chǎn)業(yè)分工鏈條的低端化而導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)粗放式的增長。在面對能源短缺、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的矛盾及世界氣候變化的國際壓力,如何才能兌現(xiàn)中國在國際氣候談判中所作出的承諾,即到2020年中國的單位GDP二氧化碳排放(即GDP碳排放強度)比2005年下降40-45%,非化石能源占一次能源消耗比重達(dá)到15%左右,應(yīng)從不同角度提出一個全面的能源資源節(jié)約和碳減排的對策。 本文首先對資源(能源)、環(huán)境(碳排放)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理,發(fā)現(xiàn),主流的增長理論中,資源(能源)、環(huán)境(碳排放)經(jīng)歷了被忽視、重視和全面重視的不同發(fā)展階段。隨著自然資源(能源)因素在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中作用的重視,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對環(huán)境的破壞,尤其是自然資源(能源)的利用對環(huán)境污染的日益加重,如溫室氣體效應(yīng)、酸雨及極端氣候等,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論中的資源(能源)、環(huán)境(碳排放)問題,即三者的協(xié)調(diào)性、經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)增長、能源的節(jié)約以及碳減排等問題成為了當(dāng)前研究的核心。 那么,問題的另一方面即是,在資源(能源)、環(huán)境(碳排放)的約束下,經(jīng)濟(jì)是否可以持續(xù)增長?文章分別基于新古典增長理論和新增長理論(內(nèi)生增長理論),將能源資源和碳排放引入到增長模型中,并對各個參數(shù)進(jìn)行了適當(dāng)?shù)脑O(shè)置,通過均衡解的解析,得出經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的基本條件是能源消耗的增長率不能大于能源存量的增長率,也就是說能源存量能夠滿足能源消耗(需求)的同時,污染物的增長率不能大于0,也就是說環(huán)境質(zhì)量不能隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出規(guī)模的擴大而無限下降。 接下來,文章對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動因從能源消耗的角度進(jìn)行了初步探索,并對中國能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的協(xié)調(diào)性進(jìn)行了實證測算。能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的Granger因果檢驗表明能源消耗是碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的Granger原因,能源消耗和碳排放互為Granger因果關(guān)系,碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長互為Granger因果關(guān)系。路徑分析表明,能源消耗和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長呈雙向因果關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對碳排放存在因果關(guān)系,能源消耗對碳排放存在因果關(guān)系。這從一定程度上佐證了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長嚴(yán)重依靠能源消耗,并導(dǎo)致了環(huán)境不斷惡化的結(jié)論。利用非線性規(guī)劃技術(shù),基于方向性距離函數(shù)衡量中國環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的環(huán)境技術(shù)效率表明中國中西部地區(qū)的能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長都處于失衡狀況,而東部沿海發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系較為和諧,但是,整體上來講中國各個省、市、自治區(qū)的能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系在不斷在惡化。這些不協(xié)調(diào)性的佐證再一次說明中國能源消耗、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間矛盾的尖銳性,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)綠色增長的實現(xiàn)任重而道遠(yuǎn)。 既然,在一定條件下經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是可持續(xù)的,即資源(能源)、環(huán)境(碳排放)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是可以協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的,因此,應(yīng)通過政策或市場規(guī)律使得資源(能源)、環(huán)境(碳排放)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長協(xié)調(diào)、平衡發(fā)展,從根本上實現(xiàn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)“又好又快”的發(fā)展。于是,在當(dāng)前中國工業(yè)化和城市化的特殊歷史階段,一個更為直觀的問題便是：一、在保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的前提下,中國如何實現(xiàn)能源的節(jié)約,尤其是一次性能源或化石能源資源消耗的真正節(jié)約；二、在保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的前提下,如何實現(xiàn)中國碳排放的真正下降。 在這樣兩個明確的目標(biāo)約束下以及中國能源的過度消耗,尤其是一次性化石能源的消耗,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致的污染物嚴(yán)重超標(biāo),尤其是碳排放嚴(yán)重超標(biāo)之現(xiàn)狀,文章重點討論了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長下的能源節(jié)約對策和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長下的碳減排對策。 具體的,關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長下的能源節(jié)約對策研究,主要從中國未來2015年和2020年能源強度目標(biāo)出發(fā),首先通過構(gòu)建能源消耗的影響因素模型,將具有階段性特征的工業(yè)化程度、城市化率等因素納入到了模型當(dāng)中,通過合理的能源消耗影響因素未來值的設(shè)定,預(yù)測出未來即2015年和2020年的人均能源消耗量,進(jìn)而得到了預(yù)測能源強度值。其略高于政府計劃值,說明中國未來能源節(jié)約的壓力還較大�？紤]到影響因素未來值設(shè)定的偏差,通過微調(diào)這些因素,進(jìn)行單變量敏感性分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和技術(shù)進(jìn)步將成為實現(xiàn)中國未來能源強度目標(biāo)或能源節(jié)約的首選,其次是能源相對價格和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的改變。據(jù)此,本文提出能源節(jié)約的政策建議為,在進(jìn)行積極倡導(dǎo)的同時,必須實施能源的強制節(jié)約。在此基礎(chǔ)上,文章還基于省域和行業(yè)的角度,利用上述模型,通過建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對中國的節(jié)能路徑進(jìn)行全面地分析。從省域的來看,優(yōu)化中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),降低工業(yè)尤其是耗能較高的行業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比例,有助于中國能源的節(jié)約；能源相對價格的提高不利于全國及低能源消耗組、中能源消耗組、高能源消耗組能源的節(jié)約；提高電力等效率較高的能源替代效率較低的煤炭有利于中國各個省、市、自治區(qū)最終能源的節(jié)約,但是對于不同的省、市、自治區(qū)要區(qū)別對待,因地制宜。從行業(yè)的角度來看,由于中國工業(yè)部門內(nèi)部的諸多工業(yè)行業(yè)的能源消耗之間存在較大的差異,不同能耗特征的各個工業(yè)行業(yè)的能源消耗的顯著影響因素及其影響程度大小的不盡相同,因此在保證中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的前提下,節(jié)能措施的采取應(yīng)對不同的工業(yè)行業(yè)進(jìn)行具體分析、區(qū)別對待�？偟膩碇v,中國能源節(jié)約的重點行業(yè)是制造業(yè),主要手段是技術(shù)進(jìn)步。 關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長下的碳減排對策研究,主要通過建立中國人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP關(guān)系的LSTR模型,并分別以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度和能源強度為閾值變量進(jìn)行了分析。研究表明,中國人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP的關(guān)系在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下(如不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度和能源強度)而不同。為了實現(xiàn)中國碳減排和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之雙贏,并使得能源節(jié)約、碳減排與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,必須在如何降低能源強度上下功夫。文章還基于全國的角度、省域的角度和行業(yè)的角度對如何降低能源強度進(jìn)行了全面的分析。由全國能源強度的結(jié)構(gòu)向量誤差修正模型(SVECM)的脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解分析可知,為了實現(xiàn)能源強度的下降,短期內(nèi),能源價格改革和擴大對外開放程度成為“迅速”降低中國能源強度的關(guān)鍵。長期而言,必須大力發(fā)展中國的可再生能源和清潔能源,徹底改變中國的能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)。由省域能源強度的脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解可知,對于各個省、市、自治區(qū)的碳減排要從不同方面(如產(chǎn)業(yè)政策等)區(qū)別對待�？傮w來講,優(yōu)化能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是降低各個省、市、自治區(qū)能源強度的關(guān)鍵,要以技術(shù)進(jìn)步和能源價格調(diào)整做為降低能源強度主要手段。具體來說,對于高能源強度組的青海、貴州、山西和寧夏而言,主要在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整上下工夫；對于中能源消耗組的四川、重慶、黑龍江、陜西、云南、吉林、遼寧、河北、新疆、內(nèi)蒙古和甘肅而言,應(yīng)主要在調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和技術(shù)進(jìn)步上下功夫；對于低能源消耗組的福建、廣東、海南、江蘇、上海、江西、廣西、山東、北京、湖南、安徽、天津和河南而言,因各個影響因素的作用均較小,所以節(jié)能減排的壓力也較小。由行業(yè)能源強度的脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解可知,各個影響因素受到?jīng)_擊后,能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和能源價格具有反向作用,貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)具有正向作用,均對降低能源強度有積極的持續(xù)作用,其中作用最大的是能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu),其余的作用較小。從方差分解結(jié)果可以看出,能源相對價格和能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)的貢獻(xiàn)最大,技術(shù)進(jìn)步和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)貢獻(xiàn)較小。因此,對于行業(yè)而言,節(jié)能減排的重點依然是能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)的大力調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:Resource conservation, environmental protection and economic growth is the topic of common concern of mankind, is also a focus of attention in the academic circle. Among them, an important focus is energy saving, carbon emission reduction and economic growth. In Chinese, if approved by the energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth between the uncoordinated situation don't balance, it is because Chinese stage characteristics of industrial development, urbanization, energy consumption in the process (demand) caused extensive economic structure and the global industrial chain of division of labor of curing the low end of growth. In the face of energy shortage, and the contradiction of global climate change on carbon emissions and economic growth of international pressure how to cash Chinese made in international climate negotiations commitments, by 2020 Chinese the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP (GDP carbon intensity) than in 2005 dropped 40-45%, the share of non fossil fuels The proportion of primary energy consumption is about 15%, and a comprehensive strategy for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction should be put forward from different angles.
Firstly, the environment resources (energy) (carbon emissions) and studies the relationship between economic growth and carding, found that the mainstream economic growth theory, resource (energy), environment (carbon) experienced different stages of development are neglected, attention and full attention. With the natural resources (energy) factors in the economic growth and economic growth seriously, damage to the environment, especially the natural resources (energy) to take advantage of the increasingly serious environmental pollution, such as greenhouse effect, acid rain and other extreme weather, the theory of economic growth in resource (energy), environment (carbon) coordination problem, namely three the sustainable economic growth, saving and carbon emission reduction and other issues of energy has become the core of the current study.
Then, on the other hand, the problem is, in the resources (energy), environmental (carbon) constraints, whether the economy can continue to grow? The article based on the neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory (endogenous growth theory), energy resources and carbon emissions into the growth model, and the all parameters are set appropriately, by analyzing the equilibrium solution, the basic conditions for sustained economic growth is the energy consumption growth rate is not greater than the growth rate of the stock of energy, that is to say the stock of energy to meet the energy consumption (demand) at the same time, the growth rate of pollutants is not greater than 0, that is to say the quality of the environment can not with the expansion of economic output decreased and the infinite scale.
Next, the motivation of Chinese economic growth from the angle of energy consumption were discussed, and the China energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth of the harmony of the empirical estimates. Granger causality test energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth shows that the energy consumption is the Granger cause of carbon emissions and economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions are Granger causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth are the Granger causality. Path analysis showed that energy consumption and economic growth is a two-way causal relationship, economic growth on carbon emissions in the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions of a causal relationship. This proves China economic growth depends heavily on energy consumption from a certain extent, and lead to the deterioration of the environment. By using the nonlinear programming technique, the directional distance function to measure the environment and economy based on China Environmental technical efficiency shows the Midwest Chinese energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth are in imbalance, and the eastern coastal areas of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic relations more harmonious, but the whole Chinese each province, city, autonomous region energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in the deteriorate. The uncoordinated evidence shows once again Chinese energy consumption, the sharp contradiction between carbon emissions and economic growth, achieve go15 China green economic growth.
Since economic growth is sustainable under certain conditions, namely resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth can be coordinated development, therefore, should be through the policy or the laws of the market makes the resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and balanced economic growth and coordination, development, development of China economy "good and fast" fundamentally. So, in the special historical stage of the China industrialization and city, a more direct question is: first, in the premise of maintaining sustained economic growth, Chinese how to realize energy saving, especially energy and fossil energy resource consumption of the real economy; two, while maintaining sustained economic growth, how to achieve a real decline in Chinese carbon emissions.
In this two clear objectives and constraints China excessive consumption of energy, especially the one-time consumption of fossil energy, resulting in serious pollutants exceed the standard, especially the status of carbon emissions seriously exceed the standard, this article focuses on the carbon emission reduction countermeasures China sustained economic growth under the energy saving countermeasures and Chinese under sustainable economic development.
The countermeasure research on China saving energy under sustained economic growth, mainly from the Chinese next 2015 and 2020 energy intensity target of first by constructing a model of influencing factors of energy consumption, will have the stage characteristic of industrialization, factors of city rate into the model, through the reasonable energy consumption factors the next set of values, to predict the future in 2015 and 2020 the per capita energy consumption, and then get the forecast value. Its energy intensity is slightly higher than the value that the government plans, Chinese future energy saving pressure is also large. Considering the factors affecting future value deviation, by adjusting these factors by univariate analysis of sensitivity. Found that the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress will be achieved China future energy intensity goals or energy conservation first, followed by the relative price of energy And the trade structure change. Accordingly, this energy saving policy recommendations, in advocating and implementing energy saving must be mandatory. On this basis, the provincial industry and based on the perspective of using the above model, a comprehensive analysis through such path to establish a panel data model based on the China from the provincial, Chinese optimization industrial structure, especially the lower industry in the national economy the proportion of energy consuming industries, help Chinese energy savings; the relative price of energy is not conducive to the improvement of the national energy and resource consumption in energy consumption group, group, group of high energy consumption energy saving; improve power such as high efficiency energy to replace coal with low efficiency to Chinese each province, city, autonomous region final energy conservation, but for different provinces, city, autonomous region should be treated differently, according to local conditions. From the industry point of view, because there is a big difference between many industrial sectors Chinese industrial sector energy consumption had significant effects on energy consumption characteristics of various industrial sectors of energy consumption factors and the influence degree is not the same, so under the premise of ensuring Chinese sustained economic growth, energy saving measures in the industrial sector with different specific analysis, the distinction. In general, China energy conservation in key industries is the manufacturing industry, the main means of technological progress.
Study on carbon emission reduction countermeasures about Chinese under sustained economic growth, mainly through the establishment of a LSTR model China per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP, and were analyzed by using the economic growth rate and energy intensity as the threshold variables were China. The study shows that two per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP in different economic environment (such as different economic growth rate and energy intensity) and different. In order to achieve win-win Chinese carbon emissions and economic growth, and makes the energy saving, carbon emission reduction and economic growth and coordinated development, must be on how to reduce the energy intensity of efforts. The article also based on the Perspective of the national, provincial perspective and the perspective of the overall industry the analysis on how to reduce the energy intensity. The model corrected by the structural vector error of national energy intensity (SVECM) of the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, in order to achieve Decline of energy intensity in the short term, energy price reform and opening degree becomes a "rapid" key to reduce Chinese energy intensity. The long term, we must vigorously develop renewable energy and clean energy Chinese, completely change the structure of energy consumption. China by impulse response and variance of provincial energy intensity decomposition shows that for all province, city, autonomous region carbon emissions from different aspects (e.g., industrial policy) distinction. Generally speaking, the optimization of energy consumption structure and industrial structure is to reduce each province, city, autonomous region of the key energy strong, to technological progress and energy price adjustment as the main means to reduce the energy intensity of concrete. For the high energy intensity group, Qinghai, Guizhou, Shanxi and Ningxia, mainly in the industrial structure and energy consumption structure adjustment efforts; for energy consumption group in Sichuan, heavy Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Qing, Yunnan, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, mainly in the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress on efforts; for the low energy consumption group in Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shandong, Beijing, Hunan, Anhui, and Tianjin Henan, due to the action of various influence factors are small, so the pressure of energy saving is also smaller. The impulse response and variance decomposition shows that the strength of the energy industry, the impact of various factors, the energy consumption structure, technological progress and energy price has negative effects, the trade structure has a positive effect, have sustained positive effect to reduce the energy intensity, which is the biggest role of the energy consumption structure, little rest. From the variance decomposition results show that the relative price of energy and energy consumption structure of the largest contribution, technological progress And the trade structure has contributed less. Therefore, for the industry, the focus of energy conservation and emission reduction is still a strong adjustment of the energy consumption structure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F124.1;F205

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 喻蕭蕭;王宏艷;;促進(jìn)山東省城市化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年04期

2 劉瑋;童光榮;;環(huán)境視角下我國工業(yè)行業(yè)能源效率特征及影響因素[J];中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2010年03期

3 王海建;資源約束、環(huán)境污染與內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[J];復(fù)旦學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2000年01期

4 許廣月;宋德勇;;中國碳排放環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線的實證研究——基于省域面板數(shù)據(jù)[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年05期

5 王海建;耗竭性資源管理與人力資本積累內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[J];管理工程學(xué)報;2000年03期

6 林伯強;電力消費與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長:基于生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的研究[J];管理世界;2003年11期

7 吳敬璉;;中國應(yīng)當(dāng)走一條什么樣的工業(yè)化道路?[J];管理世界;2006年08期

8 林伯強;蔣竺均;;中國二氧化碳的環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線預(yù)測及影響因素分析[J];管理世界;2009年04期

9 劉笑萍;張永正;長青;;基于EKC模型的中國實現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo)分析與減排對策[J];管理世界;2009年04期

10 鄧玉勇;杜銘華;雷仲敏;;基于能源—經(jīng)濟(jì)—環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)的模型方法研究綜述[J];甘肅社會科學(xué);2006年03期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 張宏霞;中國地方政府投資效應(yīng)研究[D];東北財經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

2 潘祺志;我國工業(yè)能耗強度變動與節(jié)能路徑選擇[D];東北財經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

3 侯建朝;中國能源與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間關(guān)系的模型及實證分析[D];華北電力大學(xué)（北京）;2009年

4 方雯;我國財政政策傳導(dǎo)機制與動態(tài)有效性的計量研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號：1382900